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Tuesday, December 31

31st Dec - 2014 preview

I will update this post when new stuff comes along.

31st Dec - 2013 reviews



I will update this post when new stuff comes along.

31st Dec - New Year's Eve - mostly Off-Topic



Friday, December 27

Tuesday, December 24

Sunday, December 22

22nd Dec - Weekender: Off-Topic


22nd Dec - Weekender: Markets & Economics



I am experimenting with covering blog debates.

22nd Dec - Weekender: The World



22nd Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Saturday, December 21

21st Dec - Epic Split


21st Dec - Weekender: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

Key issues:
Europe managed to agree on the second pillar of the banking union: who and how manages what to do with the failed banks, and more importantly, who pays for them. The deal is deemed to be complex, limited in scale and scope and thus ineffective.

In US, the Federal Reserve announced it will begin tapering its monthly asset purchases in January. Market reactions were muted, meaning that this time around the Fed had managed to guide the expectations and provide softer forward guidance in exchange.

Many institutions have published their monthly and annual reports, which take a look at the 2013 in review and try to preview the next year ahead. It looks like the current year is now over, with only limited “further reactions to taper” on the agenda. Time for holidays, then.

Thursday, December 19

19th Dec - After Taper, EZ banking union and holidays



Maybe the euro zone’s real problem is that European economists are all either Keynesians or Austrians (or should I say “Germans”?) Where are the European monetarists? And Market Monetarists?Market Monetarist


The Post-Taper special post has been updated. The news of the day is the agreement on the banking union's second pillar - resolution mechanism. Not everyone is happy, and it has still to be ratified by the parliament.

19th Dec - Special: After Fed's Taper


Saturday, December 14

14th Dec - Weekender: Linkfest



14th Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Friday, December 13

Saturday, December 7

7th Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Thursday, December 5

5th Dec - ECB sits, payrolls next



Previously on MoreLiver’s:
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EUROPE
Europe repeating all the errors of Japan as deflation draws closer The Telegraph
The whole eurozone must have a higher inflation rate to lift the South far enough above the deflation line to gain breathing room

What is Wrong with the EU?F. Saraceno
Eurostat just released the 2012 figures for poverty and social exclusion in the EU. The numbers are terrifying.

Americanized Labor Policy Is Spreading in EuropeNYT
This is what is known in Europe as “internal devaluation.”

Euro zone likely to backstop banks with promises rather than cashReuters
A Reuters survey of euro zone backstops showed very few governments have any money earmarked for such a purpose. If called upon, they would have to prop up their lenders with bonds or guarantees rather than cash.

The German ScapegoatProject Syndicate
Recent criticism of Germany's external surplus overlooks the fact that the country represents just the tip of a Teutonic iceberg: All northern European countries with a Germanic language are running a current-account surplus. Indeed, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway are all running larger surpluses relative to GDP.

Germany’s economy isn’t as strong as Europe believesMarketwatch
Merkel will most likely preside over Germany in a “grand coalition” with opposition parties. But this time around she may have been handed a poisoned political chalice. Germany faces significant economic challenges and risks, and its economic power and financial strength may be overstated.

The ECB’s big momentBruegel
…and the gradually apparent risks and opportunities of bank supervision

  BANK OF ENGLAND
The 8 things you need to know about the Autumn Statement Money Supply / FT

BOE Keeps Rate at Record Low as Osborne Raises ForecastsBB

UNITED STATES
The Volcker Rule: From Idea to Implementation (Almost)WSJ
U.S. Regulators are expected to vote next week on a toughened version of the Volcker rule, a long-awaited provision of the Dodd-Frank financial law of 2010. The rule, named after former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, is designed to make banks less risky by limiting its trading. Here is a look at the rule’s nearly five-year evolution from idea to reality.

Ahead of the Employment ReportTim Duy’s Fed Watch
With the fiscal shutdown in the rear-view mirror, Fed officials are turning their attention back to policy normalization.   They want to taper, but remain wary of pulling the trigger on tapering too quickly…one can make a reasonably solid argument for tapering if the November employment report adds to the recent string of 200k+ payroll gains.  My expectation is that even a positive report will not trigger a taper with month; instead, the statement is most likely to evolve to reflect a new emphasis on forward guidance.  But I can't rule out a tapering surprise.

Four Things to Know Before the Jobs ReportWSJ
The job market is picking up, but let’s not get carried away * It’s not just about jobs — it’s about how much those jobs pay * It’s the economy, stupid. * Fed, Fed, Fed.

  MACRO NUMBERS
GDP Soars To 3.6% On Inventories; Consumption Contribution Lowest Since 2009 – ZH
Economists React: ‘No Momentum’ in GDP Report – WSJ
Markets Drop on Stronger GDP Print; Break Out Your Taper Meters – WSJ
GDP Q3 Second Estimate Rises to 3.6% - dshort
Inventory Hoarding Accounts For Nearly 60% Of GDP Increase In Past Year – ZH
The economy grew 3.6 percent last quarter. Put away the Champagne – WaPo
US third quarter GDP: ‘all hat and no cattle’ – Reuters
Upbeat U.S. data points to growth momentum – Reuters
Economy in U.S. Grows at 3.6% Rate on Bigger Inventories – BB
Initial Claims Tumble To 298K As BLS Warns Of "Holiday Volatility" – ZH

Real GDP Per Capita: Another Perspective on the Economy – dshort
Comments on Q3 GDP and Investment – Calculated Risk

ASIA
Leading Japan Economist Says Abe On Right Track, But BOJ a RiskWSJ

OTHER
EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank

FINNISH
Irlannin kauppataseen sisällä elää kelttiläinen yllätysTyhmyri
Keksittyä palveluvientiä eli Irlanti vielä kaukana toipumisesta

Elvytys, setelirahoitus, talouskuri ja leikkausohjelmat - umpikujan monet nimetHenri Myllyniemi / US

Tulossa yritysten julkinen verovelkarekisteriVerkkouutiset

Kymmenen syytä, miksi AY-liikkeisiin ei kannata liittyä!Matias Härkönen / US

Huomasitko, että Suomi muuttui? "Palkkaratkaisusta neuvotellaan ensisijaisesti yritystasolla"TE

Katainen: Suomi ei lähde rikkomaan EU:n talouskuriaVerkkouutiset

Sunday, December 1

1st Dec - Credit Guest: All that glitters ain't gold


Here is this week's colossal contribution from Macronomics.

1st Dec - Weekender: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

1st Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

1st Dec - Weekender: Linkfest



Friday, November 29

29th Nov - Special: Finnish austerity package


This post will be updated / päivitän tätä blogausta, uudet tulevat postauksen loppuun.

Saturday, November 23

23rd Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Friday, November 22

22nd Nov - Weekender: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

22nd Nov - German outperformance



Monday, November 18

18th Nov - Testing times

Looks like every major market from EURJPY to SPX is testing some sort of key technical level this week - add in the first November soft data (PMI) and the waiting of further instructions from the three central banks that are running the show, we could be in for a dull week. 

Highlights of the week are the FOMC minutes on Wed and the European Markit PMIs on Thu.

Saturday, November 16

16th Nov - Weekender: Linkfest



16th Nov - Weekender: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week.

16th Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support




Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Tuesday, November 12

12th Nov - The German ECB and China's Plans



12th Nov - KEVA / Merja Ailus / Keskusta special

This is off-topic stuff on a recent political maneuver. Please disregard. This post will be updated.

Saturday, November 9

9th Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

9th Nov - Weekender: Best of the Week


Best article links selected from the ending week’s posts. Last week’s edition here.

Thursday, November 7

7th Nov - ECB lowered, but markets recoup



7th Nov - ECB Special



ECB Preview and Post-Mortem! This post will be updated.

Saturday, November 2

2nd Nov - Credit Guest: The Anna Karenina Principle

This week's cross-post from Macronomics.

2nd Nov - Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Friday, November 1

1st Nov - Best of the Week



Best article links selected from the ending week’s posts. Last week’s edition here.

1st Nov - Eyes turning to ECB



Thursday, October 31

31st Oct - Terrible EZ inflation, unemployment

Now the US Treasury is telling Europe that Germany has been wrong. The numbers today from Europe confirm the view.

Friday, October 25

26th Oct - Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

26th Oct - Best of the Week



Best article links selected from the ending week’s posts. Last week’s edition here.

25th Oct - Friday links



Tuesday, October 22

22nd Oct - Tapering pushed to Spring 2014



22nd Oct - US September employment report



22nd Oct - Waiting for US jobs data



Some nasty articles on Europe today. Note that the Bundesbank is hawkish, but that is not news. Today's main event will be the delayed US September employment report.

The median analyst expectation is for payrolls to have risen by 180k after the 169k advance in August and 104k in July. The market reaction would likely be stronger to a downside surprise. Nordea

Monday, October 21

21st Oct - The post-shutdown data calendar


21st Oct - A week to remember?


German political news, ECB, asset quality review, delayed US data, PMI, IFO, next negotiations in US...


Sunday, October 20

20th Oct - Credit Guest: The return of the Gibson paradox


Here is this week's I/O from Macronomics - your first line of defense against market ignorance.

Friday, October 18

18th Oct - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

18th Oct - Weekender: Best of the Week



Best article links selected from the ending week’s posts. Last week’s edition here.

18th Oct - The missing data begins to come in



Thursday, October 17

17th Oct - Dollar offered as tapering is delayed



17th Oct - US Deal is a pause, not a solution

US: Debt deal done – or the need for one moved to February. Nice that the thing was solved for now, but not nice that the circus will be coming back to town so soon after the last show. Because it will be just the same in February. There are four Fed presidents speaking today, so the taper-guessing is back in vogue. January seen the earliest, but if the political mess continues and is not solved by that time, it might be that the Fed will simply decide to postpone the tapering again.

Dagong downgrades US from A to A-, says “A debt crisis evolves into a political crisis, which in turn exacerbates the debt crisis…Recurrence of the conflict over debt ceiling once again reveals the US superstructure’s incapacity to solve national debt crisis”

Bloomberg: The focus now shifts to a new series of deadlines -- the first for budget negotiations with a Dec. 13 target -- that set up more rounds of political combat over taxes and spending on programs including Social Security and Medicare. The deal funds the government at Republican-backed spending levels through Jan. 15, 2014, and suspends the debt limit through Feb. 7.

Europe: ECB’s meeting will discuss the asset quality review and the stress tests. We were promised a schedule and more information “in second half of October”, so perhaps we will hear something soon.

Wednesday, October 16

16th Oct - Deal in US?



16th Oct - Still no US-deal, Europe's non-banking union

There is much about the US fiscal melodrama that is a farce. Unlike other debt crisis, this one is totally self-inflicted. It is a crisis of choice not necessity. The misconstructions have been repeated so many times that they have taken on a life of their own. October 17 most certainly does not represent the deadline on a US default. – Marc to Market

Tuesday, October 15

15th Oct - Still no deal, Europe darkens

15th Oct - Almost a deal, almost the deadline



It now looks as if there will be a bi-partisan deal later today in the US Senate,

Monday, October 14

14th Oct - Another Shutdown Monday



Starting from today, I am posting only once per day. I will  also skip the “regular” link section, but luckily you can access them from my Links-page.

I want to have more time to read what I link to – and write as well.

Sunday, October 13

13th Oct - Credit Guest: The Rebel Yell

This week's cross-post by Macronomics, enjoy.

13th Oct - Random Charts / Käppyrää

Some random charts for the Sunday - joitain käppyröitä iloksenne.

Saturday, October 12

12th Oct - Off-Topic & Finnish



12th Oct - Weekender: Economics & Markets



12th Oct - Weekender: Europe and US



12th Oct - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

12th Oct - Best of the Week

Best article links selected from the ending week’s posts.

Wednesday, October 9

9th Oct - US Close: Still playing chicken



Fed minutes contained no surprises - except that the FOMC really, really wants to taper - but is too scared of the feedback. More on Yellen, and some good ones on Europe. Of course, the U.S. shutdown continues, but no proper news yet.

It only takes a minute, girl! 

9th Oct - US Open: Rumors of an end to shutdown





9th Oct - EU Open: Yellen to head the Fed



Tuesday, October 8

8th Oct - US Close



IMF's WEO was discussed in the previous post. Today, again, the US shutdown and debt ceiling are on the agenda. But some very nice ones on Europe as well...

8th Oct - IMF's World Economic Outlook





8th Oct - US Open: The Eighth Day



8th Oct - EU Open



Sunday, October 6

6th Oct - Weekender: Markets, Econ, Finnish



6th Oct - Weekender: The World

This week's 'World'-linkfest is heavy on the US shutdown and the approaching debt ceiling. 

Friday, October 4

4th Oct - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

4th Oct - US Open



4th Oct - EU Open



Monday, September 30

30th Sep - US Close

30th Sep - US Open: Will the US close shop?

30th Sep - EU Open: Italy's fall, US's fails

The Italian government looks ready to fall. They just don't have the support they need. In Austria, the anti-euro agenda was a big winner, but not by enough - they will form a rainbow-government of all the parties except the anti-euro-parties, which will make the government weak and unfocused, just like in Finland and many other countries. But hey, anything for the euro!

US government shutdown probably happens after today. It will likely remain short, but markets might still make a big issue out of it.

Saturday, September 28

28th Sep - Weekender: Econ, Markets, Off-topic, Finnish



The good old debate on austerity is still going strong. Monetary policy is also questioned as the move from quantitative easing toward forward guidance is a recent trend by the US and UK.

28th Sep - Weekender: Europe & US


German election aftermath, the apparent backpedaling on the federal Europe and the looming US government shutdown are the main drivers right now. Italy's government looks like it could fall.

ECB's meeting next week will probably not do anything new, but might give further hints on a new LTRO, due later - if still needed at that point.

The Federal Reserve’s tapering is still featured heavily in articles, but will remain on hold probably until at least next December. Should the shutdown happen, even next Friday's unemployment report would perhaps not be published - effectively stopping the Fed from making informed decisions, and certainly pushing the tapering-date forward.

28th Sep - Weekender: Weekly Support




Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Saturday, September 21

21st Sep - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Friday, September 20

Tuesday, September 17

17th Sep - US Open (having a break)


 
This will be my last post before a break until next weekend. Have a happy & safe FOMC!

17th Sep - EU Open



16th Sep - US Close



Monday, September 16

16th Sep - US Open: Choose your poison



Things have gotten interesting. Larry is out of the race, German elections might be tighter than previously thought, FOMC is due soon with their tapering decision. And Europe is as it has been for many years - complacent.

An anonymous commentator in Finnish:

16th Sep - EU Open



16th Sep - Special: Summers is Out!



Sunday, September 15

15th Sep - Credit Guest: The Cantillon Effects

This week's credit market summary - or should I say a tome of biblical proportions - from Macroeconomics.

Friday, September 13

13th Aug - US Open



13th Sep - Weekender: Best of the Week



The best articles from the ending week. Some of them on Europe are classics. Last week’s ‘Best of’ here.

13th Sep - EU Open



Wednesday, September 11

11th Sep - US Close



11th Sep - US Open

Special: German Elections 2013



This post is updated as new material is published (latest ones at the top of the post)

11th Sep - EU Open



Monday, September 9

9th Sep - US Close

9th Sep - US Open



9th Sep - Credit Guest: The tourist trap

This week's critical mass of credit talk from Macronomics:

9th Sep - EU Open links


Citi Credit Weekly Aug-2 2013:
…both Italian and Spanish government bonds’ haircut levels at the ECB are clinging on to the “AAA to A” category thanks only to a lone A rating (on negative outlook) from DBRS. Thanks to the ECB’s even more surprising recent increase in haircut levels for BBB governments, a one-notch downgrade from DBRS would result in a five-to-tenfold increase in margins payable.

In credit, we love it when banks go out and raise equity, but that is not always an option. If even Deutsche reckons the best way to cope is by shedding €300bn in assets (presumably with a bias to better-quality ones), what does that imply for the periphery?

Saturday, September 7

Friday, September 6

Thursday, September 5

5th Sep - US Close

 There is so much hope now riding on "modest recovery", "euro crisis contained by OMT and existing programmes" and "tapering" that it reminds me of the previous attempt higher. So two scenarios: 1) either we return to "normal times"-yield levels as all is well and Europe will become either a federal union or the PIIGS will turn into germanies - or 2) crisis makes a comeback and we will see something similar to the last time that "crisis was over".
 One monetary policy for all the European nations without a fiscal union and common backstops?



5th Sep - US Open



5th Sep - Special: ECB Watch

I will update this post during and after the event. The usual: at 1145 GMT we get the decision, and 1230 GMT president Draghi reads the pre-written statement and answers questions from the press.

5th Sep: ECB, FED dates & EURUSD


Click for a larger version. The red vertical lines are ECB meeting dates that have a press conference, the blue lines are FED meeting dates that have a press conference. In the past, the ECB dates have provided the EURUSD with volatility and direction. Let's see if this return from the holidays-meeting continues that tradition.

5th Sep - EU Open: BoE, ECB ahead



Wednesday, September 4

4th Aug - US Close



Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
Daily Risk MonitorGlobal Macro Monitor
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: McCain Sparks Stocks Best Day In A Month As Bonds Drops To 25 Month Low – ZH


EUROPE
Draghi Gets Another Chance to Push ECB’s Forward GuidanceWSJ

The value in vaguealphaville / FT
JP Morgan economist really would like the ECB chief to use the opportunity to expand upon the word “extended” when offering interest rate guidance.

Greece: Troika demands that Athens liquidate arms industrypresseurop

A third way forward for EuropePresseurop
The intergovernmental method established by the Maastricht Treaty may well be insufficient to overcome divisions between member states, however, the much vaunted solution of radical federalism is even less viable. If a balance is to be restored, a compromise must be found.

UNITED STATES
Fed exit options, table du jouralphaville / FT
Which part of future Fed tightening “is now completely up in the air”? The answer (according to Societe Generale) is in the useful table

It's the what, not the whoFree exchange / The Economist
Larry Summers will be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. It is roughly as unclear as it has always been, which is very, what that will mean for monetary policy.

Worse Than Expected US Trade Deficit, Trade Gaps With China, EU Rise To Record – ZH

OTHER
Beware the EM central bank FX swap trendalphaville / FT
If you’re an central bank in emerging markets, struggling to keep your economy stimulated/protected from hot money flows, using swaps or FX sales is a tempting and viable alternative to interest rate hikes. And generally speaking, the BNP EM strategists argue, swaps provide for a richer toolset for most central banks.

4th Sep - US Open



4th Sep - EU Open



Monday, September 2

2nd Sep - US "open": German elections



2nd Sep - EU Open: A big week ahead



A lot of material, but the week is also an important one. Tin hats on.

Sunday, September 1

1st Sep - Credit Guest: Misstra Know-it-all

Here is this week's cross-post from Macronomics, the sees-it-all eye on the sky.

Saturday, August 31

"For Political Reasons" - The inconvenient truth about the euro

This essay is from the book Euro or Not?, which was published on June 5 in Helsinki, Finland, by the think tank Suomen Perusta. Authors of the book include current and previous members of the European Parliament, Finnish Parliament, a previous minister, economists and bloggers.

Suomen Perusta is operated by The Finns Party and the full document (in Finnish only) can be downloaded from the think tank’s website in PDF format – along with the previous publication How the euro area develops?

31st Aug - Weekender: Linkfest



31st Aug - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Friday, August 30

30th Aug - US Close



30th Aug - US Open



30th Aug - Weekender: Best of the Week



The best articles from the ending week. Plenty of Finnish articles. Last week’s ‘Best of’ here.

Themes of the week: Federal Reserve continues to excite people, now that the rot has spread to the emerging markets and all kinds of negative feedback loops are discussed. Syria and European bright data were also notable.

30th Aug - EU Open: Finnish "restructuring"



Wednesday, August 28

28th Aug - US Close




Sixten Korkmanista, kun oli taas telkkarissa: Korkmanin track on huono. 80-luvulla puolusti silloista raha- ja talouspolitiikkaa, 90-luvulla lamasta nousua pitkittänyttä eumutusta, rahaliittoon menoa jne. Vielä lokak. 2011 EVA:n raportissa kertoi, että:

28th Aug - US Open: Global chaos



28th Aug - EU Open: European M3, next, but Syria overrides



Monday, August 26

26th Aug - US Close



26th Aug - US Open: "Heureka"



UK bank holiday slows things down today. 

Päivän sitaatti: "Katselin tuossa pätkän Heurekan tilaisuutta ja ainakin alku näytti lupaavalta: Tilaisuuden puheenjohtajana toimii mies joka osti Saksasta neljällä miljardilla ilmaa, avauspuheenvuoron käytti pojankloppi, joka on saanut maan tähän kurjaan jamaan, tieteellisen katsauksen piti professori, joka oli takuutusten pääasiallinen taustavaikuttaja, Suomen Pankin katsauksen vakavaan tilanteeseen teki mies, joka oli 1990 laman pääarkkitehteja. Varmaan tästä tulee todella hyvä kokous ja loppupäätelmät aivan nerokkaita. Tässä vaiheessa alkoi vituttaa niin paljon, että lähdin pyöräilemään.."

26th Aug - EU Open