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Politics: will Trump Bannon Europe? – Nordea
Martin Enlund: In
Europe, neither polls nor betting markets are consistent with similar upsets of
the status-quo as was seen in 2016. However, the new US administration will
have indirect & direct effects on European politics, spelling trouble for
the status-quo.
Immersed in the Brussels Bubble – Politico
A self-described
“outsider with no experience of political reporting at all” on the EU bubble
The Difference of an A
and BBB for Italy – Marc Chandler
DBRS Downgrades Italy,
Raising ECB Collateral Haircuts – ZH
UNITED
KINGDOM
The A to Z of Theresa
May’s Brexit as her Vision Speech Nears – BB
PM May must set out
Brexit plan by mid-Feb: UK lawmakers – Reuters
UK MPs say Brexit
strategy must be ready by mid-February – Politico
How Theresa May plans to
reduce immigration after Brexit – Politico
May to Seek Hard Brexit
by Leaving EU Market, Times Reports – BB
Britain's May to call
for national unity in major Brexit speech – Reuters
Inflation on the Rise
Keeps Balance Tilted Toward BOE Hike – BB
UNITED STATES
Because of uncertainty
about the timing, size, and composition of the fiscal package, and the
resulting uncertainty about its likely economic effects, Fed policymakers are,
for now, sticking to their baseline forecast and treating a big fiscal program
as an “upside risk.” As the outlines of the Trump administration’s fiscal
policy become clear, the Fed’s projections—and its actual policy—will adjust
accordingly.
Kenneth Rogoff: The Trump Deficit – Project
Syndicate
It is a
post-financial-crisis myth that austerity-minded conservative governments
always favor fiscal prudence while redistribution-oriented progressives view
large deficits as the world’s biggest free lunch. This simplistic perspective
badly misses the true underlying political economy of deficits.
(important interview,
but press coverage of it awful)
Donald Trump: I’ll do a deal with Britain – Times
Donald Trump: I’ll do a deal with Britain – Times
Trump: I’ll start off
trusting Putin – Politico
Trump Slams NATO, Floats
Russia Nuke Deal in European Interview – BB
OTHER
Macro Monday: Markets
await Trump inauguration – TF
This week the focus is on three key areas: UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit speech Donald Trump's inauguration and China's Q4 GDP.
This week the focus is on three key areas: UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit speech Donald Trump's inauguration and China's Q4 GDP.
FX: signs of weakness – Nordea
Aurelija Augulyte: A lot of talk and politics in the weak ahead. But
watch key macro drivers: the US economic surprise index has finally turned
lower as consumer not "great again". Beginning of the end?
Goldman: S&P +6%
Since Election But EPS Forecasts Haven't Budged – ZH
World Economic Outlook January
2017 Update – IMF
Blog: Update to the
World Economic Outlook – IMF
When the Feds Went After the Hedge-Fund Legend Steven A. Cohen – New Yorker
Inside the government’s nearly ten-year battle against one of the most
powerful men on Wall Street.
A new six-part series on the biggest scammer in the history
REGULARS
Danske Daily
– Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener
– Nordea
Swedish house prices and Carney
today, busy week ahead * Trump inauguration ahead * USD-EUR rate spreads
subject to downside on ECB * GBP pounded as May expected to announce hard
Brexit
Morning Markets
– TF
The expectation that UK prime
minister Theresa May will confirm a shift towards a 'hard' Brexit Tuesday has
sent GBPUSD into a downward spiral with the 1.20 handle the latest
consolidation point for buyers and sellers. Trump's promise that Britain heads
the queue for a trade deal may not amount to much.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
Daily Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Hard Exit Talk Sent Sterling Below
$1.20
Daily Press Summary
– Open
Europe
Brussels Playbook
– Politico
US Open – ZH
Tumbling Pound Rattles Global
Markets; Chinese Stock Slide Forces Government Intervention
FX Update
– TF
It’s white knuckle time for sterling
traders as the British pound gapped lower to start trading this week after hard
Brexit talk over the weekend. Prime minister May will deliver a major Brexit
speech tomorrow while the BoE’s Carney is scheduled to speak today.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Johtajat äänessä * May pitää puheen hallituksen
Brexit-neuvotteluja koskevista suunnitelmista * EKP pitää vuoden ensimmäisen
rahapoliittisen kokouksensa * Donald Trump astuu virkaan perjantaina
Suomessa analysoitiin jo 1990-luvulla, millaisia
vaikeuksia rahaliittoon liittyminen saattaisi aiheuttaa. Uhkakuvat nähtiin
ennalta, ja niihin osattiin varautua.
Suomi 100 ja telefoni Afrikassa – Jukka Hankamäki