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EUROPE
Brexit, Spanish Elections Loosen Fiscal
Discipline in the Eurozone
– PIIE
IMF’s Performance on Financial-Sector Aspects of
the Euro Area Crisis – PIIE
The remarkably large
effect of bad macroeconomic ideas.
Inaction on fiscal
policy, reforms may keep natural rate low * Unconventional policy may have to
be used more frequently
New tans, same old 'polycrisis' as Europe's
summer ends – Reuters
UNITED STATES
Fed Chair Yellen’s
Jackson Hole speech reinforced the view that the Fed will raise rates later
this year. Although she left the door open for a rate hike at the September
FOMC meeting, we stick to the view that a rate hike is more likely at the
December meeting. Yellen’s comments also supported our view that a change to
the Fed’s 2% inflation target is rather unlikely in the near future.
Dismissing risks like
it's 1999.
Editorial: Where the Fed Goes From Here – View
/ BB
Disappointed by what came out of Jackson Hole – Larry
Summers
OTHER
The market reacted to Yellen's speech by taking the USD stronger.
September hike? Status quo for Fed's balance sheet and higher rates - what it
means for EURUSD? The JPY strength challenged, as commodity currencies look for
support.
The rich world’s central banks need a new target
Central bankers fear
threat of low-growth rut – FT
Without parallel action by lawmakers, economies could still be left
vulnerable
A fixed exchange rate, monetary autonomy and the free flow of capital are
incompatible, according to the last in our series of big economic ideas
Macro Monday: Are the
USD and US rates at an inflection point? – TF
We are at the inflection points of tactically higher moves in the USD and
US rates that could potentially run for the next one to four months. A key risk
is this Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls; an abysmal number similar to the May NFP
would unravel this potential inflection point.
Mark Gilbert: One Chart
Shows What Investors Are Dreaming About – View
/ BB
Ian Traynor obituary – The Guardian
Europe editor of the Guardian who covered the Solidarity strikes in
Poland, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the rise of Putin and the Greek euro
crisis
REGULARS
Danske Daily
– Danske
Bank
ISM and US payrolls are this week’s
highlights * September Fed hike is “alive” * USD rallies after Fed’s chair and
vice chair endorse tightening
Morning Markets –
TF
September is back on the table for a
rate hike Monday morning and while that still looks unlikely a move before
year-end is now looking more than a probability and even two rate hikes by
December 31 is now priced in at 17%.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Dollar Gains Extended, but Momentum
Fades
Daily Market Comment
– Macro Man
It may be crazy, but Friday's
outcome may just have opened the door for a Fed move in September
Brussels Playbook
– Politico
Back to school — Apple in
Commission’s eye — Estonia (sort of) votes
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Slide, Futs Flat;
Commodities Down On Stronger Dollar As Hike Odds Reprice Higher
Frontrunning
– ZH
FX Update – TF
Friday’s outside day action in US
interest rates and USD pairs sent a loud signal that the USD wants to rally in
the near term on more hawkish Fed rate hike talk. Key data this week could
encourage or discourage the Friday reversal.
From the Floor –
TF
As the tumultuous central banker
gathering at Jackson Hole over the weekend fades into the rear view mirror
investors and traders have set their sights on this week's main event –
Friday's August nonfarm payrolls.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kiinan
teollisuuden haasteet jatkuvat * Fedin Yellen oli haukkamaisella linjalla
Jackson Holessa * Yellenin puhe nosti USA:n korkoja sekä vahvisti dollaria ja
koronnosto-odotuksia * Perjantaina saatavat USA:n työllisyysluvut jatkavat
vahvalla linjalla