Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s post is here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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LAST WEEK
Stock-Drop-alypse
Wow - Gold Soars As Kamikaze Kuroda Strikes Again
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
U.S.
Jobs, Buffett, Abe Abroad, UBS
Turkey,
Greece, Italy, Japan, Economic Forecasts
With
weak earnings in tow, focus turns to jobs data
Weighing
the Week Ahead – Jeff Miller
French growth beats expectations * Helicopter
money: this tool to fight deflation corresponds to a money-financed fiscal
stimulus * US: GDP growth was disappointing in Q1 2016, but this was no
surprise. Unlike previous years, however, this sluggish performance cannot be
blamed on exogenous shocks, weather conditions or strikes * EU: The Juncker
Plan is still on track
Next
week’s highlight is the US employment report for April released on Friday. Our
expectation is a weaker but still healthy job growth with a 175k gain in
payrolls. Moreover, all eyes will be on the Chinese PMIs for April. The most
important figures out of the Euro Area and the UK are PMI numbers. In Sweden
the Riksbank’s minutes will be the highlight of the week.
Uncertainty
from start of year has eased but Brexit risks lurking
The
BoJ’s inaction may be due the economy doing better than many envisaged * The
pick-up in global inflation is flying under the radar, in our view * Upside
risks to the long end of the
EUR
swap curve are rising on oil, global IP, reduced Brexit risks and issuance * The
USD is set to weaken short-term against EM and JPY; to strengthen against EUR *
EM equities to rally further on China, metal prices.
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The
Fed is not acknowledging the feedback loops their policy steps trigger. Either
way, monetary policy is set to remain very accommodative. Eurozone and Chinese
economies are surprising on the positive side.
2016
year end USD/JPY forecast lowered from 115 to 110. USD stabilises post FOMC
meeting. GBP recovers due to profit taking of short positions. AUD slumps as
weak inflation reignites RBA easing bets. EM FX: commodity and domestic
drivers.
Speculative
Positioning
– Marc
Chandler
Speculators
Trim Euro and Yen Exposure ahead of FOMC and BOJ
Will
the Dollar Bloom like May Flowers after April Showers?
FX Week Ahead –
Marc
Chandler
Another strong jobs report may not
be sufficient to reignite dollar rally
Weekly Market
Summary
– The
Fat Pitch
Equities
fell this week, led by an 11% drop in the US's largest stock, Apple. For the
first time since the February low, the near-term trend in SPY is weak: the
current set up normally leads SPY, through price and time, to its 50-dma and
lower Bollinger Band, both currently about 3% lower. Overall, breadth,
sentiment, macro, commodities and seasonality support higher equities prices in
the week(s) ahead. The month of May typically starts strong and the Nasdaq has
been down 7 days in a row: combined, these suggest a positive start to the week
is likely.
This
week saw one of the largest Japanese yen moves in market history a move that we
respect and suspect could extend at least marginally next week. Elsewhere we
look at commodity currency plays via AUD and NOK and suggest that a close above
1.1400 in EURUSD could lead to further gains versus a frozen Fed and captive
USD.