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EUROPE
The UK economic recovery
is set to slow further in 2016 and 2017 as capacity constraints start to bite.
While inflation is currently negligible, it is forecast to reach the 2% target
in early 2017. We therefore expect the first Bank of England rate hike in Q4
this year. This should be positive for the GBP. For now, however, the Brexit
vote is clouding the outlook for everything. We expect no Brexit, but the
outcome of the EU referendum is too close to call.
Economically liberal approaches to trade,
regulation and immigration essential to prosperity in event of Brexit – Open Europe
Blaming Draghi Finally
Unites Merkel's Fractious Coalition - BB
GACS, ATLAS, the EC and the ECB – Jonathan
Algar
Some light notes on the
political economy of Italian NPLs
OTHER
Helicopter money: Views of leading economists – vox
Helicopter money is
frequently in the headlines but frequently misunderstood. This column reviews
the VoxEU columns that have – since 2010 – provided research-based policy
analysis of this ‘beyond unconventional’ policy.
Less “FX warfare” sounds
like a good deal until you realise you’re the one stuck with a too strong
currency. Did Bank of Japan lose control of the JPY as a result of the G20?
With a deflationary impulse from the JPY looming, could BOJ throw the G20 over
board, or start fuelling its helicopters?
IMF GFRS
Risks have risen in
advanced economies, remain high in emerging markets * Market turmoil reflected
setbacks to growth, greater uncertainty, weaker confidence * More balanced,
potent policy mix can expand global output by extra 2 percent
Bad loans in Italy
account for more than a third of the €900bn total of non-performing loans on
the books of eurozone banks
REGULARS
Chinese exports higher, Oil hits
yearly high, yields higher * Rebound in US retail sales * French auction
weighed heavily on bonds sending yields higher * Oil rises to yearly high
benefitting commodity currencies
Very impressive trade data out of
China and a barnstorming oil rally spurred Asian equities to one of their best
days of the year as a largely gloomy IMF report on global growth was neatly
sidestepped to at least partially revive risk-on sentiment.
US Dollar Comes Back Bid
Would you lend money to this man?
'That shouldnt happen' - The most
dangerous type of move.
China's exports grew in
March at the fastest rate in a year exceeding some analysts' forecasts and
copper prices jumped in response to the strong Chinese trade data. Crude oil
hit a 2016 high. And Germany's Schaeuble continues to criticise the European
Central Bank's negative rate policy.
New Open Europe report:
A blueprint for successful trade, immigration and regulation in the event of
Brexit * IMF: Brexit could pose major challenges for both the UK and the rest
of Europe * Bundesbank chief defends ECB policies as “appropriate at this
juncture” * EU Commission in push to force large companies to disclose more tax
details * Migration Observatory: Six EU countries make up 80% of increase in EU
migration * Head of Eurozone bailout fund: Talks between Greece and lenders
could wrap up “over the next four weeks” * France announces extra savings to
hit deficit targets * EU gives Greece two weeks to beef up its external border
* EU could impose visa restrictions on travel from US and Canadian citizens by
the summer * ECR group expels remaining AfD member * Merkel’s party slides
another point in the polls
Greece lightning —
Privacy’s big day — Brexit silence
Futures Jump On Chinese Trade Data;
Oil Declines; Global Stocks Turn Green For 2016
Optimism about a production-freeze
deal at this weekend's meeting of oil producers drove crude oil above its
200-day moving average overnight and spread good cheer across Asian markets on
Wednesday. The feelgood factor was also helped by strong trade data from China.
FINLAND
& FINNISH
Italian
pankkien hartiat koetukselle * Kiinan ulkomaankauppaluvut tarjosivat myönteisen
yllätyksen * Ruotsin inflaatio yllätti Riksbankin * Valtionlainakorot kohosivat
eilen tasaisesti sekä USA:ssa että euroalueella