Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
Lagarde’s IMF future in trouble on home soil – Politico
Poland – Hungary: In the same boat – BNP
Paribas
Euroscepticism Masked as
Patriotism, 1:0 for Pro-Europeans – euinside
Report Faults ECB in Irish Banking Collapse – NYT
Commission and Italy agree bad-debt deal – Politico
Italian Banks Sink As "Bad Bank" Plan
Underwhelms – ZH
Who Gets to Pay for the Italian Banking Crisis? – Wolf
Street
Merkel’s coalition ally threatens migration
lawsuit – Politico
Rise of AfD poses a challenge for Merkel’s
policy on refugees – Europp
UNITED STATES
Noah Smith: Free Trade With China Wasn't Such a
Great Idea – View
/ BB
FEDERAL
RESERVE
The Fed, the Markets,
and the Great Guessing Game – WSJ
Editorial: The Fed's
Best Policy: Wait and See – View
/ BB
Markets Don’t Believe
the Fed – BB
Will the Fed respond to crude's collapse? – TF
January 2016 meeting
statement – FED
Longer-run goals and
policy strategy – FED
Implementation note – FED
How the January
Statement Changed from December – WSJ
Fed Mouthpiece Parses
Back-Pedaling Fed Statement – ZH
Traders Still Disagree
With the Fed on Its Rate-Rise Path – WSJ
Fed Says Little and Does
Less – Marc
Chandler
Economists: ‘No Major
Change Yet to the Policy Outlook’ – WSJ
OTHER
The Only Game in Town? – Pension
Pulse
The SWF taper: how big is it? – ABN
AMRO
There has been a rising
focus on the hit to markets from lower oil prices * One channel is declining
investment from Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) * SWF assets rose by USD 50 per
month before the oil price collapse…and have been falling by around USD 5bn per
month since * However, this likely reflects price movements as well as flows * The
SWF taper is less than the Fed’s but is still significant
Great Graphic: World Equities and Oil – Marc
Chandler
Oil and stocks. Correlations that work until
they don't – Polemic’s
Pains
February Rates & FX outlook – Macro,
Credit & FX
Robert J. Gordon: Goodbye, Golden Age of Growth – View
/ BB
Ashoka Mody: The Market's Troubling Message – View
/ BB
We'd like to think
investors are overreacting. But they may be onto something.
Former GS-Head of Junk Bonds On Credit Market – BB
The unwinding of the
"efficient capital structure" beckons.
Central Bank
Credibility: What Does it Mean? – Marc
Chandler
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Rally Ahead of Fed
Meeting
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Fed Decision Comes Amid Tumultuous
Backdrop
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Risk tentatively on * We expect no
clear hints from the FOMC for the March meeting * EUR weakens as markets price
in March ECB rate cut * Brent at USD 31.7, 10-year Bunds at 0.45% * German 2-
and 5-year yields reach new lows
Morning Markets – TF
Iraq's oil minister helped fuel an
equities rally overnight but oil's initial surge ultimately gave way and the
Shanghai Composite Index was unable to hitch a ride plunging to a 13-month low
at one point. Tonight's FOMC will dominate today's agenda.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Mixed Dollar as Eyes Turn to FOMC
Daily Shot – TF
The selloff in Chinese
equities persists despite yesterday's US stock market rally as crude oil prices
keep heading south and the energy markets remain exceedingly jittery. The
strong US dollar is hurting earnings of US exporters and expectations of
negative interest rates in the US by end-2017 have risen.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View
/ BB
IPhones, Index Funds and
Sherpas
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View
/ BB
Electricity, Inversions and Research
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Migration Watch claims
Brexit could reduce net immigration by 100,000 * Timmermans: 60% of asylum
claims lodged in the EU are not valid * European Court of Auditors report
exposes Commission failings during Eurozone bailouts * AfD shores up position
as third force in German politics * Irish banking inquiry finds ECB threatened
withdrawal of bank liquidity to force compliance from Irish government * Italy
and European Commission strike deal on Italian banks’ bad loans * Danish
parliament votes in favour of law to seize valuables from migrants * Greek PM
warns “pension system is not sustainable” and “will collapse” without reform
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Car law overhaul — EU
start-up visa — Juncker drops Greece
US Open – ZH
Futures Slide On Apple
Disappointment, Oil Slumps Ahead Of Fed Decision
Frontrunning – ZH
A range of global market
developments since the December FOMC meeting has seen the market price out all
but about one of the anticipated Fed rate hikes this year after some Fed
members as recently as last month predicted we could see four rate hikes. But
will today's FOMC statement support this expected dovish pivot?
China's stock markets
got no respite from the oil-driven selling while global markets clung to
expectations that the US Federal Reserve would take no action at its policy
meeting later on Wednesday.
FINNISH
Fed
haluaa nostaa, mutta ei pysty vielä tänään * Ruotsista julkaistaan
luottamuslukuja ja tietoa kapasiteetin käyttöasteesta * Kuluttajien luottamus
koheni USA:ssa * Öljyn hinnannousu ei riittänyt vetämään korkoja ylemmäs
Maahanmuuttopolitiikan ajopuu – Matti
Virén