Here are
the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning
week. Last week's 'Support' here.
This post will be updated as new
material is published.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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LAST WEEK
Weekly
Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
Friday’s
Price Monitor – Global
Macro Monitor
Week Of
Epic Bond Volatility Ends With A Whimper
Succinct
summation of week’s events – The
Big Picture
NEXT WEEK
US
Schedule for Week –
Calculated
Risk
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Eurozone
industrial production: bright start to Q2? * Chinese “hard” data for May:
stabilisation * US retail sales: cheap oil to boost consumption
Economic
Calendar – Handelsbanken
Week Ahead
– ZH
5 Things
to Watch on the Economic Calendar – WSJ
Weekly
Market Outlook – Moody’s
Weekly
Focus – Danske
Bank
We expect a
1.4% m/m increase in overall US retail
sales in May on the back of an increase in auto sales and higher gasoline
prices * Greece and its creditors will work
on reaching an agreement on Greece’s fiscal woes before Thursday’s meeting of
euro area finance ministry deputies * In China, we expect growth in industrial
production to have stayed subdued at 5.9% y/y in May * In Scandi markets, focus
will be on May’s inflation due to
be released in
Denmark, Norway and Sweden next week, in particular as rate cuts are looming
in Norway and Sweden
Week
Ahead – Nordea
US retail
sales and labour market data will be in focus next week. In the Euro area, data
releases include revised Q1 GDP numbers as well as industrial production
estimates for April. In the Nordics, inflation is on the agenda.
Macro
Weekly – Draghi and the bond market – ABN
AMRO
ECB
President Draghi has shown the magic touch on a number of occasions, managing
to shape market expectations with a well-coined phrase. However, this week his
signal that the central bank was prepared to step up QE if necessary fell on
deaf ears, with Bund yields surging further, the euro strengthening and equity
markets falling in the slip stream. We think the ECB will make further efforts
to stem ongoing tightening in financial conditions, with further verbal
intervention the next step. Meanwhile, Greece looks to have bought itself some
more time by deferring IMF payments. Economic data this week was generally
positive on both sides of the Atlantic. The strong US jobs data confirms the outlook for
a September Fed rate hike.
Global
Outlook: Cruising Speed – Berenberg
Forecasts
at a glance – Berenberg
Viikkokatsaus: EKP: suurempaan markkinavolatiliteettiin
pitää tottua – Nordea
Inflaatio plussan puolelle, 0,3 % * EKP:ltä vahvaa
ennakoivaa viestintää * Ostot etupainotteisesti kesän aikana * Koroissa suuria
liikkeitä –tähän pitää tottua * Lyhyemmän pään inflaatio-odotukset laskussa * Onko
EKP:llä kommunikointiongelma?
STOCKS
Weekly
Market Summary – The Fat
Pitch
US equities have refused to become
either oversold or overbought during the past several months. They are now down
two weeks in a row and at point similar to where there has recently been a
bounce higher. Failure to do so now would mark a change in character for this
rangebound market. Ultimately, the washout low probably still lies ahead.
CREDIT
Euro
Rates Weekly – Fear of volatility – ABN
AMRO
The dovish
tone of Mr Draghi’s speech fell on deaf ears earlier in the week * Government
bond yields surged as Mario seemed to accept high volatility * We judge that
the ECB should intervene as a tightening of financial conditions makes QE less
effective and fear that the ECB has lost grip on markets * Intervention is also
needed to restore trust of investors in the current dysfunctional market * We
do not see an improvement of liquidity or lower volatility in the short term
Euro
Corporate Weekly – Get used to high volatility – ABN
AMRO
Draghi’s
intervention to cap bond yields fails due to volatility remark, yields soar * Market
is stuck between early QExit speculation and ECB intervention * Total returns
are in negative territory for the second time this year * Credit curves steepen
as investors find safe haven in short end of the curve
FOREX
FX
Outlook – Marc Chandler
The strong US employment data stopped the
dollar's downside correction in its tracks.
G10 FX
Weekly – Come-back of the euro – ABN
AMRO
Euro’s
comeback because of higher German bond yields … * Strong US employment report saved the US
dollar * Australian dollar rally quickly ran out of steam
EM FX
Weekly – EM FX lower
– ABN AMRO
EM FX
failed to profit from dollar weakness…except Eastern European currencies * Reserve
Bank of India is done with monetary easing for
now
FX: so, September hike again? – Nordea
The speculation about the first Fed hike in 2015 is back after the great
payrolls report - how low can EURUSD go? Strong US retail
sales is key risk this week...but will the shock last?
CALENDARS
Economic
Calendar – investing.com
Economic
Calendar – BB
EU calendar – europa.eu
Markkinakalenteri
– Nordnet
Global
Central Banks Calendar – WSJ
Central
Bank Release Calendar – Daily FX