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EUROPE
Germany
Won’t Veer From Euro-Recovery Recipe, Merkel Says – BB
GREECE
Forget
"Grexit", "Grimbo" Has Arrived – ZH
Gillian
Tett: US fears a European sequel to Lehman Brothers – FT
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB’s Praet
Says Eurozone Getting Back on Growth Track – WSJ
Eurozone Risks Bad Inflation After
Good Deflation – WSJ
Philippe
Legrain: End the ECB Dictatorship! – Foreign
Policy
ECB adjusts
to new life as public enemy number one – FT
OTHER
Global
macro forecast — Central banks cannot fix it all – Handelsbanken
US: Fed
remains on track for a first rate rise this year * Eurozone: Deflationary
pressures despite economic recovery * Labour market and wages: Labour markets
improve, but what about wages? * China: Deceleration continues * Sweden: Not a
lot of slack in the labour market
Recap
2015-04-22: My Take
– Global
Macro Trading
Data over
the next few weeks are likely to be quite important. If the recent string of
data disappointments continue, analysts as well as the Fed are likely to need
to reassess their growth projections.
FX Watch
– Asian FX : Short term reprive – ABN AMRO
We have
become less bearish on the short term outlook for the Chinese yuan, Singapore
dollar, Taiwan dollar, South Korean won and Thai baht. The Fed does not look
likely to hike in the near term, while there are also various positive domestic
developments, with policy settings likely to be a less negative factor.
However, our year end forecasts for Asian currencies remain unchanged as we
still think that financial markets are underestimating the pace of rate hikes
in the US, while domestic risks remain.
PURCHASING MANAGER INDICES
Japan April
flash manufacturing PMI contracts for first time in 11 months – Reuters
China:
disappointing PMI leaves room for more easing – Nordea
Euro area:
PMIs provide evidence of still fragile growth – Nordea
EMU Comment
— PMI already losing steam? – Handelsbanken
Euro-Region
Output Growth Slows as Economy Awaits QE Effect – BB
Weaker euro
PMIs suggest GDP growth peaked in Q1 – Danske
Bank
French
weakness hits eurozone recovery – FT
US PMI
Misses By Most On Record As New Orders Tumble – ZH
Markit U.S.
Manufacturing Index Fell to Three-Month Low in April – BB
U.S.
factory activity growth slows in April: Markit – Reuters
ECONOMICS
The IMF’s
Harmful Debt Restructuring Proposal – PIIE
Capital
Control Measures: A New Dataset – IMF
Deficit
targeting vs Debt targeting – Worthwhile
Can reforms
only be expected to pay off in the long run? – Bruegel
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Douglas’s
Take: BOE Sees Little Sign Lowflation Threatens Spending * ECB Raises Ceiling
on Emergency Lending to Greek Banks * ECB’s Praet Says Eurozone Getting Back on
Growth Track * Abe Ally Says Bank of Japan Must Ease Again * Swiss Central Bank
Move Causes Franc to Tumble
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The latest
purchasing managers’ surveys for China and the eurozone were soft – China’s the
weakest in a year. The surveys justify the easy money policies being pursued by
both central banks. Throw in the U.S.’s first-quarter wobble and some worrying
signs from emerging markets and suddenly there’s a big question mark about
where the global economy is heading.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN AMRO
Various
officials suggest Greek talks are progressing but that a deal is not close…end
of June is the official deadline, but the Greek government only has cash to May
* Strong US housing demand to boost residential investment in the coming time
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Yields rise
while Chinese manufacturing slows down * Focus on Euro-area PMIs – time for a
setback? * Only temporary stabilisation of long Bund yields * SNB hits CHF
Morning
Markets – TF
Purchasing
managers indices are top of the data pile both in Europe and the US today with the market particularly
keen for an update on how Germany is faring. Elsewhere, US weekly oil
inventories should give us some direction on crude and later in the session,
three of the biggest internet players publish earnings reports.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Disappointing
Data Weigh on Equities, but Leaves Dollar Uninspired
Daily
Shot – TF
Every day
seems to bring fresh evidence of economic deterioration in China. And with
short-term rates sliding, stocks looking increasingly frothy and business
sentiment getting gloomier, it looks like the PBoC will have to loosen the
monetary policy reins rather much and rather soon.
US Open – ZH
Futures
Unexpectedly Red Despite Disappointing Economic Data From Around The Globe
From the
Floor – TF
The NZD's
namesake bird was never known for its aerial manoeuvres, but the combination of
poor Chinese PMI data and some distinctly dovish RBNZ statements have left it
even more hopelessly grounded than is its humble norm.
Martin Sandbu’s Free Lunch – FT
The verdict
on spoofing: In the court of public opinion at least, Sarao has done nothing
wrong
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit pysyvät korkealla | Kiinan
teollisuuden alakulo jatkuu | Saksan 10-vuotinen korko vakaantunut
väliaikaisesti
Ykkösaamu: Hallituksen Eurooppa-haasteet – Yle Areena
Uuden hallituksen EU-haasteita arvioimassa Satu Hassi, Sampo
Terho ja Matti Vanhanen. Esillä myös naisten asema, toimiiko naisten yhteistyö
eduskunnassa Arja Juvonen, Jaana Pelkonen ja Nasima Razmyar vieraina.
Kolumnisti Terttu Utriaisen aiheena yrittäminen ja köyhyys. Toimittajana Päivi
Neitiniemi.
Kahvakiekkoa Sipilän sääntökirjalla – Mitä
olisi tutkittava
Aho: "Talousneuvoston kokoukset kuin
hartaustilaisuuksia" – KL
Valta keskitettäisiin strategiselle ministerivaliokunnalle
ja myös valtiosihteerit saisivat mennä, mikäli ex-pääministerin neuvoja
noudatetaan.
VARMA
Suursijoittaja paljasti uudelle hallitukselle ilouutisen
taloudesta – IL
"Leikkaukset eivät vaativa tehtävä, jos vertaa siihen
mitä olemme Kreikalta vaatineet" – TE
Varman Murto: Luvut pelottavan hyviä – KL
Varma teki vuoden tuotot kolmessa kuukaudessa – "meno
pelottavaa" – HS
TYÖTTÖMYYS
Maaliskuun työttömyysaste 10,3 prosenttia – Tilastokeskus
TE-toimiston ovi käy - Työttömiä työnhakijoita maaliskuussa
jo 347 000 – TE
Entistä useampi oli työtä vailla maaliskuussa – YLE
Ekonomistin varoitus: Piilo- ja pitkäaikaistyöttömyys
nousivat merkittävästi – Verkkouutiset
Pääekonomisti: Pitkäkestoiset ongelmat pahenevat – KL