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EUROPE
Despite a
significant progress over the past decades, European integration still needs
improvement in some areas. This column presents a long-term narrative of
European integration by using a recently published European index of regional
institutional integration. The index maps developments in European integration
from 1958 to early 2015 on the basis of a new monthly dataset. The evidence
shows that successful integration could be achieved with reforms that are
inclusive, widely explained, understood, and accepted.
A new
CEPR Report: A New Start for the Eurozone: Dealing with Debt – vox
The
Eurozone’s problems of poor growth and the threat of financial instability are
rooted in its very foundation. The authors of the inaugural Monitoring the
Eurozone report, launched today, consider three means by which the Eurozone can
protect itself from structural failure. Their recommendations, which do not
require Treaty changes, are crucial in offsetting the major risks a repetition
of the recent Crisis would present. [link to
report]
We have
moved the first BoE hike to November 2015 – Danske
Bank
German 10Y
Bond Yield Plunges To 10bps, Negative To 8 Years – ZH
Finance
Minister will meet with President Barack Obama in Washington on Thursday as EU officials warn a
release of bail-out cash remains far away
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Global
Daily – No QExit for Mario – ABN AMRO
Draghi will
likely dismiss any QExit talk at today’s press conference…by insisting the
central bank will continue asset purchases at least until September 2016 * Dampening
QExit speculation will become more difficult later as growth builds momentum
Draghi
Seen Dispelling Duration Doubts about QE Program – BB
Introductory
statement to the press conference – ECB
The
ECB’s April Presser — Live – WSJ
Live:
Mario Draghi’s press conference – FT
ECB Sticks
With Strategy – Marc to
Market
ECB
President Draghi’s Opening Remarks, Minus the Protester – WSJ
Draghi:
Full QE implementation and no deposit rate cut – Danske
Bank
ECB Watch –
Draghi gives a balanced message – ABN
AMRO
5 Takeaways
From the ECB’s April Presser – WSJ
Time For
Reform, Says Unflappable Mr. Draghi – WSJ
European
bonds not scarce (yet), says Draghi – FT
ECB Market
Take: All is well that ends well. Will QE? – Nordea
ECB: Unexpected
action – Nordea
MACRO NUMBERS
House
prices up by 1.1% in the euro area – Eurostat
Euro area
international trade in goods surplus €20.3 bn – Eurostat
UNITED STATES
Wake up,
smell the roses and stop blaming it on the weather: the US economy's shoddy
performance in the first quarter of this year was no aberration. US economic
growth is heading towards zero by year's end and here's a small collection of
charts to build the case.
MACRO NUMBERS
Fed:
Industrial Production decreased 0.6% in March – Bill
McBride
US
Industrial Production Plunges – ZH
Weak
factory sector in Q1 - industrial production review – Nordea
Homebuilder
Confidence In April Jumps Most Since July – ZH
NAHB:
Builder Confidence increased to 56 in April – Bill
McBride
ASIA
Modi
reforms helping propel India's economy as other emerging markets downshift, IMF
Says
MACRO NUMBERS
China
growth slows to six-year low as stimulus fails to find traction – Reuters
China GDP Tumbles To Lowest In 6 Years – ZH
China's
Economy Slows to 7% Growth, Meeting Government Target – BB
China: GDP
growth eases further, poised to drop below 7% - Danske
Bank
Chinese
Economic Slowdown Boosts Shanghai Stock Exchange – Alpha
Now
China
shares fall after GDP data, Hong Kong market steady – Reuters
Asian
markets stumble over China – Reuters
World
Stocks Drop With Aussie as China Growth Slows; Yen Slides – BB
China Watch
– Growth further down, but still ‘on target’ – ABN AMRO
China: the
growth countdown has just begun – Nordea
China’s
First-Quarter GDP in Four Charts – WSJ
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: A Gloomy Outlook for Emerging Market Growth As IMF Convenes * Two Fed
Regional Banks Shift Positions on Discount Window Lending Rate * Euro
Depreciation Will Restrain the U.S. and China for Years, the IMF Says * Rise in
Eurozone Saving Rate Sounds Deflation Alarm * China’s First-Quarter Growth Slowest in
Six Years at 7%
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Will China’s slowdown continue to be
controlled and moderate as the government tries to rebalance the economy from
investment- and export-led growth to domestic consumption? Or is the second
weakest quarter (on an annual basis) since 2001 a serious worry?
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Soft
Chinese data * Positive signals from the Euro area * ECB meeting in focus - but
don’t expect any big news * Another set of new yield lows * EUR/NOK breaks
lower
Morning
Markets – TF
GDP data
out of China overnight confirmed what everybody already knew – the Chinese
economic miracle is running out of steam. Meanwhile, over in Europe, market
focus is fixed on the ECB's rate-setting meeting and though no changes are
expected we'll be looking for hints of any news on the bank's QE programme.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc to
Market
Dollar
Bounces Back
Daily
Shot – TF
In China the official GDP growth figure came in as expected: 7%.
But other economic growth measures all came in below consensus: retail sales,
fixed investment and industrial production. This is by no means a hard landing,
but we are likely to dip materially below 7% going forward.
US Open – ZH
Futures
Jump Following Worst Chinese Eco Data In 6 Years
From the
Floor – TF
China's
data shock sent tremors through forex markets with AUDUSD in particular
wobbling, despite the dollar undergoing its own period of introspection after a
disappointing retail sales print. A bad jobs report down under tonight could
see AUDUSD in touching distance of that all-important 0.7500 barrier.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
The good,
the bad and the ugly in structural reform: IMF finds no productivity gain from
labour market deregulation
OTHER
IMF
Survey: Now Is the Time! Use Fiscal Policy to Support Sustainable Growth – IMF
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kiinan hidastuminen lupaa loppuvuodelle uusia elvytystoimia
| USA:n vähittäismyynti osoittaa
elpymisen merkkejä | Drakman devalvoituminen ei enää pelastaisi Kreikkaa
Kuinka hallitusohjelmaa luetaan? – Antti Ronkainen
Vaihtotase alijäämäinen helmikuussa, pääomaa tuotiin
nettomääräisesti – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden liikevaihto marras-tammik. laski lähes 4
prosenttia – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto marras-tammik. +3,4 prosenttia YoY– Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto laski helmikuussa 2015 – Tilastokeskus
POLITIIKKA
Lars Vilks: Jos
valtaapitäviä ei voi kritisoida, eivät yhteiskunnat kehity – Suomen
Uutiset
Sunnuntaina ei
kannata nukkua! – Professorin
ajatuksia