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W/E:
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5-MARCH
ECB Will
Cut Rates To Minus 3%: JP Morgan – ZH
Five
Questions for Mario Draghi – BB
ECB to fill
in the QE gaps – Reuters
So at what
point do we see corporate yields going to zero? – FT
Eurozone QE
Is Here. What Could Possibly Go Wrong? – WSJ
ECB to
raise growth forecasts, flesh out bond-buying plan – Reuters
Draghi’s
New Era Blighted by Old Woes as ECB Finalizes QE – BB
4-MARCH
ECB
prepares to give details of QE scheme – FT
Profit- and
loss-sharing, flexibility of central banks and conditionality behind the length
of the programme.
ECB preview:
The QE begins – TF
Conditionality
of length, absorption problem and negative yields
5 Points
to Watch During the ECB’s March Meeting – WSJ
When Will
QE Be Launched * Watch for Signs of Flexibility... * ...And What Will Define
Success * How Does the ECB See the Economic Outlook? * What Messages on Greece?
This is
nuts, where have all the bonds gone? – FT
Bond buying
on ECB QE, the Greek loan extension and recent growth data in the periphery has
transformed itself into bond hoarding.
Scarcity
of bonds could pose problems for the ECB’s QE – Europp
/ LSE
The ECB
should be prepared, then, to pay higher prices for the purchase of government
securities in order to meet its goal of pumping money into the financial system
of the Eurozone.
This is
nuts. But so what?
– FT
Citi: Is it
a bubble?...certainly has all the typical hallmarks of one…But that’s almost
beside the point, as we think it will last longer than most people’s investment
horizons, leaving them with little choice but to participate. As we see it, the
time to exit is the day that the market starts to doubt the ECB’s commitment to
buying more.
Why ECB
risks running out of ammunition – FT
Constraints
lie in 25% issue and 33% issuer limits on bond purchases
What to Expect from the ECB – Marc to
Market
The
operational risks are two-fold. First,
the amount of sovereign bonds that it plans on buying may exceed net debt
issuance for some countries.. A second operational challenge will be in the
reporting of the purchases.
3-MARCH
Eurozone’s
march to QE enters its final stages – FT
Draghi’s
QE Moves to Starting Line as Outlook Brightens – BB
Draghi's
Rescue Plan Has Created a $103 Billion Problem – BB
S&P
Says Sinking Bond Yields Have Worsened Pension Shortfalls
This is
nuts, where have all the bonds gone? – FT
A Complete Preview Of Q€ — And Why It Will Fail – ZH
1-MARCH
ECB to
Face Scrutiny Over Greece at March Meeting – WSJ
Euro
inflation set to increase in February - but to remain in deflation – Danske
Bank
Vítor
Constâncio: Central banks with large balance sheets (slides) – ECB
ECB’s
Constancio Sees Stock of €4 Trillion Eligible for QE Purchases – WSJ
27-FEBRUARY
ECB Preview: Waiting for the QE purchases to start – Danske
Bank
We do not
expect a major market impact. There are still unanswered questions: When will
the ECB start buying bonds? Will the ECB buy bonds already yielding negative?
How open ended is the QE programme really? Will National Central Banks be
limited to buying only their own bonds?
ECB preview: Details, details – Nordea
The ECB’s
meeting next week cannot possibly match all the excitement involved in January,
but will still be worth following. You should not expect too many further QE
details to be revealed, but a few will be in store. Also the market response
should be rather muted this time, but the market moves following the actual
start of the purchases will be more interesting.
26-FEBRUARY
Eurozone’s
Future Remains at Risk, Mario Draghi Warns – NYT
Draghi
warns the future of the eurozone was at risk unless member countries gave up some
independence and created more Pan-European government institutions.
On the ECB running out of bonds to buy – Global
Macro Trading
ECB to pay the price – Nordea
The first
sovereign QE purchases by the ECB are looming, and have left core bond yields
trading in a rather narrow range. Contrary to expectations that the ECB will
not find any willing sellers, the initial purchases are unlikely to mark
another leg lower in core yields. Such an outcome could actually trigger some
profit taking, driving yields up a bit. Additionally, while the regulatory
effects on the demand picture are sizable, its effects should not be
overplayed, especially in the near term.
Monetary Developments in EZ Jan 2015 – ECB
Euro
area: Further signs of stronger recovery – Danske
Bank
Euro
zone lending shows sign of turnaround as morale improves – Reuters