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EUROPE
The
short, sweet deflation – ABN AMRO
Eurozone
inflation looks to be bottoming out and will be positive again in H2 * So
called ‘deflation’ has coincided with strengthening activity data * With
economic sentiment rising, and consumers becoming increasingly upbeat
Is
Europe's confidence to be believed? – TF
Few have
realised that the European Commission has quietly stopped enforcing the
Stability and Growth Pact, which limits deficit spending by member states. This
fiscal stimulus coincides with the European Central Bank's asset purchase
plans, and together they explain the recent optimism in the Eurozone. But easy
fiscal and monetary policy are under threat due to real-world constraints and the
will of Germany.
European
Semester Is Slowly Dying – euinside
The largest
and boldest reform of the EU after the Lisbon treaty - the Union's economic
governance - is headed toward a complete failure.
Eurozone:
welcome to your currency board future – FT
Citi’s
Chief Economist Willem Buiter spent some time with FT Alphaville explaining why
he believes Draghi’s concession on profit and loss sharing among ECB member
national central banks turns, in all likelihood, the single monetary unit into
nothing more than a glorified currency board.
Eurozone’s
Chief Bank Supervisor Outlines Priorities for Year – WSJ
The
eurozone’s chief bank supervisor on Tuesday outlined priorities for the current
year, saying that teams were making sure that banks implemented findings from last
year’s comprehensive assessment.
The DKK's
peg to the EUR is much stronger than the CHF's, abolished in January * Denmark has a long history of pegging -
first to the deutschmark, then the euro * Yesterday's treasury sale signals
some easing
Irish
Central Banker Absolves the Euro of Blame – WSJ
Currency
regimes matter less to the success or failure of economies than the quality of
the policies pursued by governments and central banks, the governor of Ireland’s central bank said.
GREECE
Goldman
Sachs Sees ‘Grexit’ Risk Rising – WSJ
Greece fails to reach initial deal on
reforms with lenders – Reuters
Greece—a Destabilizing Financial Squeeze –
Robert
Kahn
MACRO NUMBERS
Eurozone
deflation eases in March – FT
Euro
inflation increases as the impact from the oil price decline fades – Danske
Bank
Euro
area: Inflation moves in the right direction – Nordea
ECB policy
makers can be quite satisfied with the incoming data these days. The economy is
picking up and inflation is almost back to zero. With nominal bond yields
forced down by QE, real rates are falling, supporting the economy and making
the debt burden easier to bear. This is exactly the ECB’s plan.
Euro
area unemployment rate at 11.3% - Eurostat
European
Jobless Rates By Country - ZH
International
trade in goods in 2014 – Eurostat
EU's top
trading partners in 2014: the United States for exports, China for imports
UNITED STATES
The
Fed’s grudging embrace of inflation targeting, part 1 – FT
The
Fed’s inflation target doesn’t mean what you think it means – FT
Trends
Around 1st Fed Rate Hikes – Barry
Ritholtz
Credit
Suisse’s Lessons For Lift Off – Recent sensitivities to interest rates, and
trends around the 1st Fed rate hikes of 1994, 1999, and 2004
BERNANKE’S BLOG
Ben
Bernanke: Why are interest rates so low, part 2: Secular stagnation – Brookings
Why Ben
Bernanke Isn’t Buying the Secular Stagnation Thesis – WSJ
Pascal,
academia and Bernanke – Tony
Yates
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Can Asia’s Banks Withstand a Financial Shock? * Regulators Intensify
Scrutiny of Bank Boards * Fed’s Fischer Floats Ideas for Regulating Shadow
Banks * Eurozone Price Falls Ease in March * China to Begin Deposit Insurance From May
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Once again
stock markets are living in a world of their own…It’s all about central bank
stimulus, of course – or in the case of China, merely in the expectation that
the bad news will generate stimulus. A world in which bad news is perpetually
good news for stocks is not necessarily a healthy one. Just saying.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Euro-area
inflation to turn less negative * Yields continue downhill-trend, equities up *
EUR/GBP uptrend remains intact, in an otherwise weak EUR trading session
Morning
Markets – TF
Daily FX
Comment – Marc to Market
Dollar
jumps
Daily
Shot – TF
The US
housing market seems to be doing considerably better. And if housing continues
to improve, and inflation stabilises, the US Fed's "liftoff" this
summer becomes increasingly likely.
US Open – ZH
Futures,
Oil Slide As Surging Dollar Now Takes Window Dressing Stage
FX
Update – TF
Greece's
negotiations with its creditors have gone nowhere and it looks like the Greek
leadership is cozying up to Russia in a dangerous gambit to achieve greater
leverage. It looks like the euro will be increasingly vulnerable to headline
risk in the days ahead as we ponder the direction this will take.
From the
Floor – TF
Once again
Greece is keeping market participants worried. Is it really attempting to make
a deal with Russia? Down under, a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia is
expected to happen early next week, sending stocks higher.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
God's work:
On money lenders and the poor
OTHER
Are
EURUSD and equity markets ready to tumble? – TF
EURUSD's
post-Fed swing higher could be over * European recovery may not be as solid as
it appears * Markets could be hurt by a shift in economic surprise index
Where's
the dollar going next? – TF
First
volatility in the dollar for six months * A look at counter-trend trading * USD
likely to rise further in medium term
EUR/USD
downtrend resumes –
ABN
AMRO
We expect
EUR/USD to fall further * Our EUR/USD forecast for the end of June and December
are 1.0 and 0.95 respectively
Juhani
Huopainen: War story: A peg with office hours – TF
A new
series on the agony and the ecstasy of trading * Finding the right set-ups is
hard work but worth the effort * All you need is to be little less inefficient
than others
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Euroalueen kuluttajahinnat lähestyvät pohjaa | USA:ssa
yksityinen kulutus laski | Euroalueen talouselämän luottamus vahvistui
Työtunnin hinta: Suomi 32,3 euroa, Bulgaria 3,8 euroa
– Verkkouutiset
Euroopan kalleimmissa maissa työvoima on kymmenen kertaa
kalliimpaa kuin halvimmissa.
Juha Sipilä: Keskustan leikkaustavoite yhä kaksi
miljardia euroa – Verkkouutiset
Palokangas: Julkiselta sektorilta pitää leikata 10–15
miljardia euroa! – YLE
Teknologiateollisuuden pääekonomisti Jukka Palokangas
laskee, että vientituloja puuttuu tällä hetkellä noin 30 miljardia euroa
vuodessa, jotta julkinen sektori kyettäisiin rahoittamaan ilman lisävelkaantumista.
Palokangas vaatii julkiselle sektorille 10–15 miljardin euron leikkauksia usean
vuoden konkreettisella ohjelmalla.
Huippujohtajien terveiset: Pidempää työpäivää, vähemmän
liksaa – YLE
Palkkamaltti, työpäivän pidentäminen, paikallinen sopiminen,
lakko-oikeuden rajoittaminen, kevyemmät verot, kaupan aukioloaikojen ja
alkoholimyynnin vapauttaminen. Lue Ajankohtaisen kakkosen kyselyyn vastanneiden
huippujohtajien lääkkeet, joilla Suomi-neito heidän mielestään saadaan
nostettua jaloilleen.
Kotitalouksien velkaantumisaste 122,2 prosenttia vuoden 2014
lopussa – Tilastokeskus
Julkisyhteisöjen alijäämä 3.2%, velka 59.3%
bruttokansantuotteesta 2014 – Tilastokeskus