30th Mar - French elections, Yellen & Bernanke, Greece

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W/E: Weekly Support

Friday: Boring

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EUROPE

Wolfgang Münchau: The real eurozone problems are hidden under the bonnet – FT

The most important adjustment that needs to take place is a convergence of prices and labour costs

Eurozone can't survive in current form, says PIMCO – The Telegraph

Single currency area must become a "United States of Europe" in order to secure its future, says manager of world's largest bond fund

Schäuble: Wrong to Support QE While Criticizing German Surplus – WSJ

 

Bank of England Officials Go Into Election-Season Blackout – WSJ

Chances of an In/Out EU referendum being passed in the next Parliament? – Open Europe

  FRENCH ELECTIONS

The National Front’s strength makes French politics a three-way affair– The Economist

Nicolas Sarkozy the winner as French local polls deal blow to Socialists – FT

Hollande bruised as Sarkozy, Le Pen triumph in local elections – The Guardian

A French lesson for the UK – TF

French local elections: Winners and losers – Open Europe

French lessons – FT

  NORDICS

Spillovers in the Nordic Countries – IMF

The spillovers differ in magnitude and impact, regardless of the high degree of integration among the four Nordic economies. These differences are driven by the fact that Denmark and Finland have no independent monetary policy, and Denmark and Norway are net energy exporters while Finland and Sweden are energy importers.

Is Finland’s Economy Suffering From Secular Stagnation? – Edward Hugh

Finland’s secular stagnation – a small aside – Paul Jonker-Hoffrén

  GREECE

Neither Grexit, nor Grexident. Euro and 'drachma' in parallel? – Reuters

Greek morals and German maths must find common ground – FT

Greece Scrambles to Reach Deal as Cash Runs Low – WSJ

Greek crisis: The squeeze tightens – The Economist

Greece Crisis Endangers Euro Area's Political Integrity – euinside

Greece Prepares To Leave – Automatic Earth

List of Economic Overhauls Greece Must Flesh Out by Monday – BB

Greeks Need Their Leader to Be Tough – NYT

Greek Bailout Proposals Lack Necessary Detail, Officials Say – WSJ

Greece struggles to accommodate lenders as cash dwindles – FT

Greek Markets Show All at Risk Should Mistake Trigger a Default – BB

ECB Nerves Fray on Greece as Supervisors Rile Central Bankers – BB

Greece Can No Longer Kick the Can Down the Road — Economists – WSJ

Greek Dictionary – Polemic’s Pains

European authorities are using dirty tactics to bring Greece to heel – Al Jazeera

The Greek reform list: the best is yet to come? – FT

ECB Bond-Buying Program Could Hinge on German Debt Supply – WSJ

Traders say ECB may run out of road unless it changes some of its bond-buying terms

  MACRO DATA

March Economic Sentiment improves further in the euro area and the EU – EC

Spanish inflation -0.7% in March, better than -1.2% in February – FT

UNITED STATES

Explaining US Stock And Bond Markets In 5 Easy Charts – ZH

Companies are rapidly re-leveraging and the proceeds sure aren’t being invested in future productivity, but rather in buy backs and dividends. Citi says all that debt issued by struggling oil producers may prove dangerous and ratings agencies are behind the curve

Soaring Stocks Push Investors Into Bonds Whose Issuers Buy More Stocks – ZH

Why There Is No Wage Growth In America – ZH

The Fed wonders where inflation comes from — 2009 transcripts edition – FT

  BERNANKE’S BLOG

Ben Bernanke: Why are interest rates so low? – Brookings

Ben Bernanke Blog Blogging – Krugman / NYT

Bernanke Warns of Risks Tied To Early Rate Rise in His New Blog – WSJ

Did Bernanke forget about QE? – FT

Bernanke: The Fed Is ‘Groping’ to Find the Full Employment Rate – WSJ

  YELLEN SPEECH

“Normalizing Monetary Policy: Prospects and Perspectives” – FED

5 Quotes From Janet Yellen’s Speech at the San Francisco Fed – WSJ

Yellen Upbeat on Foreign Central Bank Stimulus for U.S., Despite Dollar Impact – WSJ

Yellen says US interest rates likely to rise gradually – FT

Highlights from Fed Chair Yellen's speech – Danske Bank

Thoughts on Yellen's Speech – Tim Duy

  MACRO DATA

Personal Income +0.4% in February, Spending +0.1% - Calculated Risk

U.S. Inflation Undershoots the Fed’s 2% Target for the 34th Straight Month – WSJ

ASIA

Lee Kuan Yew: The wise man of the East – The Economist

Authoritarians draw the wrong lessons from Lee Kuan Yew’s success in Singapore

Singapore after Lee Kuan Yew: After the patriarch – The Economist

The island-state mourns its founding father, but its politics is changing

China’s Credit Overdose – Project Syndicate

Despite rapid credit expansion in the last two years, China's GDP growth has decelerated sharply. This disparity reflects the accumulation of massive debts, which require an ever-increasing amount of liquidity to service.

REGULARS

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: Bernanke to Seniors: Don’t Blame Me for Your Low CD * Fed’s Janet Yellen Pitches Cautious Tack on Rate Increases * Changes in Sovereign Debt Risk Rules Won’t Come Quickly * China Lowers Down Payments for Buyers of Second Homes * U.K.’s Biggest Banks Subject to Stress Test

Daily Macro – WSJ

Today is the day Athens has promised to deliver concrete details to back up its promise of economic and fiscal policy changes to keep its EU creditors happy. With the ECB barring Greek banks from using their government’s bonds as collateral and instead keeping them afloat with emergency lending whose existence is contingent on the EU continuing to roll over its financial assistance, there is much at stake.

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Euro rates update – Nordea

Eye-Opener – Nordea

Yellen sees lift-off this year * Worrying news from Greece * UST yields fell while intra-Euro-area spreads stood still * EUR/SEK – between Riksbank and macro

Morning Markets – TF

Daily FX Comment – Marc to Market

Dollar and Equities Begin Week on Firm Footing

Daily Shot – TF

Bank of Japan still buys government securities faster than the government issues * ECB and national central banks have a long way to go in purchasing securities * In the US Q2 GDP could show a marked improvement after a strong winter

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

Victory for the UK as ECB abandons push to move euro clearing inside Eurozone * Labour, Lib Dems and SNP restate opposition to Conservatives’ plea for EU referendum * Greek reform proposals underwhelm as government faces cash crisis within weeks * Landslide victory for Sarkozy in French local elections, as Front National also makes important gains * EU banking regulator stresses importance of City of London for Europe * Italian Foreign Minister hints at easing of EU sanctions on Russia if situation improves

US Open – ZH

Futures Jump On Chinese Easinng Speculation, False Rumor Of PBOC Rate Cut

FX Update – TF

EURUSD and USDJPY ended last week in limbo as we look to this week’s US data to spark a move out of the current zone of technical uncertainty. EURUSD could prove especially volatile, given signs of very heavy short positioning.

From the Floor – TF

Chinese president says quality, not quantity, should be growth focus * Not much to inspire dollar bulls in Yellen's remarks * Vols opening a little on the low side * Micron Technology has been an investors' darling * Short week could limit activity and liquidity in the bond markets

Martin Sandbu’s Free Lunch – FT

Contractionary loosening? Argument that rates can't do much more good for us is shaky

OTHER

Global FX Strategy: the ball is in the Fed's court – Nordea

In our monthly FX publication we flag the risks of the change in trends - EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY... The ECB QE is launched, and now the focus in the FX market shifts to the Fed action - will they dare to hike in summer? In addition, we feature our latest views on the Scandinavian currencies, where more easing is being discussed.

Global Outlook: Risk Control is Working – Berenberg

Low oil prices: big boost for Western world, tough luck for Russia * US: consumers and companies in good shape = solid growth * China: sufficient growth despite slowing trend, risks well contained * Eurozone: oil and ECB to raise demand growth as risks fade * Britain: solid recovery but mind the politics, Brexit risk? * Tail risks: Grexit, euro politics, Putin starts war, emerging market crash?

5 Charts From the Week in Markets – WSJ

Bubbly biotech stocks go flat, while Mideast tension roils oil. Cash flows out of the eurozone, and property investors’ dreams of dividends turn to nightmares of zombie REITs.

April FX & Rate thoughts – Macro, credit & FX

The largely trend-less environment of the past four months continues. Despite the fall this week, US equities are not oversold and sentiment is still heady. This suggests that a rally early in the week would likely fail. While April is one of the best months of the year, the first half of the month has been weak. If this pattern continues this year, there would likely be a more attractive entry point mid-month.

KVP’S Macro Take: Everyone has a plan 'til they're punched in the face – TF

Importance of risk management and position sizing cannot be emphasized enough * Short week: 1Q ends, Fed speakers, quarterly shuffles, US data, nonfarm payrolls * Only nine days ago to the April 7 RBA decision, when it should cut rates

News In Charts: European Easing, Dollar Strength, Nigeria Elections – Alpha Now

With Europe’s economy still struggling to recover, the ECB sang the song of quantitative easing in March. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar’s Superman rise leveled off somewhat as the Fed lowered its expectations for U.S. economic growth and inflation. The price of oil held above $55 on the weaker dollar as Saudi output rose.

Fiscal Policy And Structural Reform – iMFdirect

First, fiscal policy must ensure debt sustainability and market confidence. Second, there must be a credible commitment to see the structural reform through to fruition. Third, there needs to be a good estimate of the costs and benefits of the reform and how they will materialize over time. Fourth, an overall assessment of the macroeconomic situation and prospects is required.

Andrew G Haldane: Drag and drop – BIS

Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, at BizClub lunch, Rutland, 19 March 2015.

On microscopes and telescopes – BIS

Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, at the Lorentz centre workshop on socio-economic complexity, Leiden, Netherlands, 27 March 2015.

The Dollar and Equities Revisited – Marc to Market

Here's Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" – ZH

When is macroprudential policy effective? – BIS

Liquidity Squeeze, Abundant Funding and Macroeconomic Volatility – BIS

When markets become self aware – FT

War story: A peg with office hours – TF

A new series on the agony and the ecstasy of trading * Finding the right set-ups is hard work but worth the effort * All you need is to be little less inefficient than others

OFF-TOPIC

Steve Wozniak: The Future of AI Is 'Scary and Very Bad for People' – Yahoo

Speeches — Ten Rules to Utilize – Farnam Street

Stanford's Most Popular Class Isn't Computer Science – Fast Company

It's called "Designing Your Life," a course that's part throwback, part foreshadowing of higher education's future.

Mental Models: The Mind’s Search Algorithm – Farnam Street

A Special Forces Officer Teaches You 5 Secrets To Overcoming Adversity – Bakadesuyo

Book reviews: Inside North Korea – FT

Artifice and dissembling are daily requirements to escape — or just survive — the country’s hereditary dictatorship

How music genre affects life expectancy of musicians– Tyler Cowen

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

USA:n työmarkkinoiden notkahdus vain tilapäistä | Ruotsin vähittäismyynti on kehittynyt vakaasti | Katseet kohdistuvat perjantaina julkistettaviin USA:n työllisyystilastoihin

Soutaen vai huovaten, pääjohtaja Liikanen? – Jan Hurri / TalSa

Suomen Pankin neuvot ja keinot maan talouspulmien korjaamiseksi ovat kuin soutamista ja huopaamista. Keskuspankki ponnistelee hiki hatussa inflaation kiihdyttämiseksi, mutta Suomea se patistaa päin vastoin yhä deflatorisempiin ponnistuksiin. Ihmekös tuo, jos talous on sekaisin.

Euromaiden yhdenmukaisuus on utopiaa – Henri Myllyniemi / US

Pääkirjoitus: Uhkailu puree nyt huonosti EU:ssa – HS

  BUDJETTIVAJE

Niku Määttänen: Elvytyksen hyödyistä ja riskeistä – Akateeminen talousblogi

Danske Bankin Uotila: Suomella on varaa elvyttää ainakin viisi vuotta – Kaleva

Kuinka paljon Suomi maksaa ulkomaalaisten opinnoista? – HS

Syrjäytyminen ja elvytyksen vaikutus – Roger Wessman

Etlan toimitusjohtaja puolustaa leikkauspolitiikkaa – HS

"Täytyy kysyä itseltään: mihin suuntaan erehtyminen on vaarallisinta?...Meidän täytyy aloittaa sopeutus välittömästi"

  VÄHÄTIITO & PERSEILY

Korkotukilainaa 1,4 miljardia – Valtion asuntoraha valuu palveluihin – HS

Yleishyödyllinen TA-yhtymä on luonut suuren yritysryppään valtion tuella rakennettujen asuntojen ympärille. HS:n selvityksen mukaan TA-yhtymä suosii lähipiirinsä yhtiöitä, kun se hankkii rakentamiseen ja kiinteistönhoitoon liittyviä palveluita.

TA-yhtymä: Toimimme säännösten mukaisesti – HS

Tausta: Entisellä Tarveasunnoilla on keskustalaiset juuret – HS

HS: Yleishyödyllinen TA-yhtymä suosii lähipiirinsä yhtiöitä – IS

  POLITIIKKA

Vieraana Timo Soini, Olli Seuri haastattelee – YLE

Soini Ykkösaamussa: Näin hallitus pitäisi rakentaa – IS

Soini: Kreikka-tukea ei meiltä heru – YLE

Soini vaati 6mrd leikkauksia 6-7 vuodessa, pyrkii hallitukseen – HS

Vieraana Antti Rinne, toimittajana Jari Korkki – YLE

Vieraana Juha Sipilä, toimittajana Jari Korkki – YLE

Vieraana Alexander Stubb, toimittajana on Jari Korkki – YLE

Vieraana Sauli Niinistö, toimittajana Jari Korkki – YLE

Miksi lähdin politiikkaan? – Juhana Vartiainen

Soini roimii kokoomusta – HS

"Kampanja sellaisessa epätoivossa, että edes Angela Merkel ei pelasta

Suomi selviää vain suljettuna monokulttuurina – Markus Bunders

Miksi Sipilä vaikenee paskalakibisneksestään? – Suomen Uutiset