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EUROPE
How many
assistants do MEPs employ? – Jonas
Jancarik
On average,
MEPs have 2 assistants in Brussels and 3 in their home country * MEPs
from Lithuania and Poland have by far the most assistants * Lithuanian
MEP Antanas Guoga employs the most (29) while 32 MEPs have no assistants in Brussels
We expect
broad based GDP growth of 1½% to 2% for both 2015 and 2016. Private consumption will be
the most important growth driver. Consumer prices will likely rise a bit faster
than in the Euro area, reflecting Germany’s more advanced cyclical position.
SWEDEN
The
Riksbank cut rates and is likely to do more – Nordea
In a
surprise move, the Riksbank cut the repo rate today by 0.15 bp to -0.25%. Also,
the bond purchase programme was extended by SEK 30bn. Moreover, the Riksbank
says that it is prepared to do more, even between monetary policy meetings.
Riksbank
take-aways – Nordea
The rate
cut today (15 bps) was larger than the size of the rate cut in February (10
bps), and measured in interest-rate risk, QE2 could be up to 10 times larger
than QE1 in February. In this perspective, both the drop in 10y yields and in
the currency actually seems somewhat muted relative to the reaction after QE1.
The Swedish
Shocker: Will It Work? – WSJ
Sweden Slides Further Into NIRP: Cuts To
-0.25%; Expands QE – ZH
UNITED KINGDOM
The minutes
of the Bank of England’s March MPC meeting had a dovish twist, as policy makers
voiced concern that continued strength of the UK economy could further strengthen
the GBP and increase the risk that low
inflation will persist. The BoE is still in no hurry to start normalising
policy.
Bank of
England Sounds Alarm on Pound – WSJ
The
appreciation of sterling worries the MPC – Danske
Bank
GREECE
Greek Bulls
"Throw In The Towel... They've Gone Plain Nuts" – ZH
Are Greek
Capital Controls Now Inevitable? – ZH
Grexit
Contagion Resumes After IMF Slams "Most Unhelpful Client Ever" – ZH
ECB
Prepares For Grexit, Anticipates 95% Loss On Greek Debt – ZH
Tsipras
demands EU stop 'unilateral actions' – Reuters
ECB Said to
Grant Greece Less Emergency Liquidity Than Requested – BB
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Recent
movements in the effective exchange rate of the euro – ECB
ECB's
Celebration of Its New $1.4 Billion Tower Is Spoiled by Protesters – BB
Weak euro,
meet the ECB’s inflation forecasts – FT
EZ QE:
features and bugs – Tony
Yates
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
FOMC
Preview: Yellen Fed less patient than market expects? – TF
The prime
risk to a hawkish outcome is any prominent mention of USD strength * A
Bloomberg poll found 69% of economists want the word “patient” removed * Market
swings after this meeting could prove significant, so care is needed
Dalio
Thinks Fed Can Repeat 1937 if it raises rates too fast – BB
Stephen
Pope: Which way will Janet jump? – TF
Soaring USD
hurting US exporters * EURUSD likely to achieve parity * Oil not likely to
rebound soon
Juhani
Huopainen: Expect rate-hike signaling – with a softener – TF
Fed is
clearly in a tightening mood, but is realistic * Expect Fed to remove 'patient'
and introduce less steep rate path * USD and stocks already corrected, and
could be ready to strengthen
Hidden
Message of the Fed's Dot Plot – BB
Patient:
Fed may drop the word, not the idea – Reuters
Future
Threats, Not Present Danger, Counsel Caution on Raising Rates – WSJ
The U.S. economy will be better-positioned
for the next recession if interest rates are higher when the downturn starts.
Paradoxically, the best way to achieve that may be to keep rates lower now
FOMC
March policy statement – FED
Economic
projections – FED
Statement
tracker – WSJ
Macro Live,
FOMC presser edition – FT
Live Blog:
Fed Decision and Janet Yellen’s Press Conference – WSJ
Fed Drops
‘Patient’ Stance, Opening Door to June Rate Increase – BB
Fed opens
door further for June interest rate hike – Reuters
"Flexible"
Fed Loses "Patience"; Cuts Growth, Inflation Forecasts – ZH
Reaction:
Buy Stocks, Buy Bonds, Buy Gold, Buy Crude Oil, Sell Dollars – ZH
The Reason
Why Stocks Are Soaring, Or Farewell "Recovery"... Again – ZH
Fed signals
that higher interest rates are coming – WaPo
Federal
Reserve: No Patience Does not Mean Impatient – Marc
to Market
Goldman: More
Dovish Than Expected But Hike Coming In September – ZH
Fed Trims
Back Estimates Of Interest Rate Rises Amid Big Forecast Changes – WSJ
Yellen: Strong
USD Holding Down Exports and Inflation, But Reflects Strength – WSJ
Fed
Officials See Slower Inflation Pickup Than Private Economists Do – WSJ
Three
Things I Think I Think – Fed Decision Edition – Cullen
Roche
Yellen
Sends Odds of Any Rate Increase Below 50% Until December – BB
Fed
cautious on rate hikes – ABN
AMRO
No
Decisions Yet About Timing Of Fed’s Reinvestment Process End – WSJ
Economists:
‘No Longer Patient, But Definitely Not Impatient, Yet’ - WSJ
5 Highlights
From Janet Yellen’s Press Conference – WSJ
Fed’s
Covert Foray Into FX Policy Risks Wider Currency War – WSJ
Panic
Buying Of Everything; Dollar Plunges Most Since 2009 – ZH
Yellen
Strikes a Dovish Tone – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Redacted
Version of the March 2015 FOMC Statement – David
Merkel
ASIA
Recent data
confirm the ongoing weakness of domestic demand, although these are partly
distorted by the Chinese New Year. We expect the authorities to keep adding
measured monetary and fiscal easing to prevent a hard landing. Our 7% growth
forecast for 2015 is in line with what was recently announced at the National
People’s Congress. Recent steps to manage local government debts are positive,
although China’s ‘deleveraging path’ will likely
remain lengthy and wobbly.
Beijing’s growth tolerance has been reduced to 7% *
Plenty headwinds suppress future growth * Policy stimuli are able to prevent an
abrupt slowdown * CNY has not joined the currency war
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Douglass
Take: BOE Policy Makers Share Worries Over Stronger Currency * Feds Bid for
Flexibility on Rates Sets Stage for Market Volatility * Five Things to Watch in
the Fed’s March Meeting * Economic Data Complicate Fed Rate Deliberations * Blockupy
Protests Break Out in Frankfurt as ECB Opens New Building
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Fed
expected to remove “patient”, Yellen to explain whether to expected action in
June, or later, strength of the dollar could be mentioned * Bank of England highlighted
its concerns about the strength of the pound.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN
AMRO
The fall in
the euro will drive up import prices, leading to upward pressure on inflation
in 2016 * German ZEW influenced by QE programme, with growth and inflation
expectations up * Eurozone labour market conditions slowly improving – trend
should continue
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Fed to
remove “patient” barrier for rate hike * Signs of EUR rates markets getting
used to QE * Markets pare USD-bullish bets ahead of FOMC decision
Daily
Shot – TF
Chinese
housing prices continue to slide, with many appearing to believe the stubborn
price activity will force Beijing to prop up the economy. Meanwhile, Brazil's troubles continue to mount as India appears to offer a note of promise
in the emerging markets sphere.
Daily Shakeup – Open
Europe
Moscovici:
We won’t keep Greece in the Eurozone at any price * Senior SPD and Green
politicians open to paying Greece additional war reparations * Thousands of
protesters clash with police at opening of new ECB headquarters * Commission:
Member states’ right to decide their own energy mix should be respected * EU
likely to delay sanctions decision on Russia as Ukraine pleads for more
financial support * Centre party enjoys comfortable polling lead ahead of
April’s Finnish parliamentary elections * Bank of England’s Brazier: UK has
significantly influenced EU bank rules * 13 Cypriot MPs owe Bank of Cyprus €35.3m
in non-performing loans * European Commission proposes forcing EU states to
share tax deal information
US Open – ZH
Futures
Weak Ahead Of "Impatient" Fed, Oil Slide Continues; China Stocks Go Berserk
From the
Floor – TF
Nintendo
mobile partnership boosts stock by 21% * EURUSD volatilities rising ahead of
FOMC meeting * June rate hike? Not likely, says Koefoed * FedEx earnings a test
of shipper's global bull case * Brazilian, Russian yield curves soar on
perceived risk
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Economy
watchers and '30s throwbacks - Obsession with Fed lift-off date misses the
essentials
OTHER
BIS
Quarterly Review: A wave of further easing / March 2015 – BIS
Special
features on "The costs of deflations: a historical perspective",
"Oil and debt", "Bank business models", "(Why) Is
investment weak?", "Financial inclusion - issues for central
banks" and "Shifting tides - market liquidity and market-making in
fixed income instruments". [press
release]
BIS
Questions Deflation Threat – WSJ
How
dangerous is deflation? – FT
BIS Sees
Financial Inclusion Increasing Central Bank Powers – WSJ
The
Economist’s Interview: Tim Geithner [30 min]– Youtube
The
Economist’s Interview: Peter Thiel [30 min] – Youtube
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
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