3rd Feb - EURUSD reversal, Greece demands GDP-linkers

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Monday: Busy week begins with Greece's grand tour

W/E: Linkfest

W/E: Weekly Support

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EUROPE

Ireland urged to play ‘hardball’ to get a deal on legacy bank debt – Irish Times

Citigroup economist Willem Buiter suggests Government should withhold support for euro area bank resolution authority

Germany’s 10-Year Bond Yield Falls Below Japan’s for First Time – BB

Déjà vu: have Juncker’s tax reforms already been debated? – FT

Norway’s Krone Puppeteer Achieves Inflation as Others Fail – BB

Only one thing that can save Russia’s economy – WaPo

Russia doesn't have an economy so much as an oil exporting business that subsidizes everything else. But it can't subsidize much when oil prices are only $55-a-barrel.

BOE’s Kohn Backs Carney in Airing Eurozone Concerns – WSJ

 

S&P Downgrades Numerous European Banks, Warns Deutsche Bank May Be Next – ZH

  DENMARK / SWITZERLAND / CURRENCY PEGS

John J Hardy: Not all pegs are created equal – TradingFloor

Trying to Wrap Your Head around the SNB and Denmark? – Marc to Market

Swiss Acclimatize to New World After Losing Franc Shelter – BB

Switzerland Rejoins Currency Wars – View / BB

The Danish peg: central bank sold DKK 106.5bn in January – TradingFloor

  GREECE

Greece finance minister unveils plan to end debt stand-off – FT

Greece No Longer Demands Debt Write Off, Proposes Debt Exchange Instead – ZH

Greece Said to Drop Writedown Request Amid EU Opposition – BB

Athens’ escape from troika: Syriza right to deal directly with states – FT

Q&A: Can Athens re-write the bailout rules? – FT

Greek stand-off puts Draghi on the political stage – FT

Gideon Rachman: Dangerous cracks at Europe’s centre – FT

Greece outlines debt 'menu' in bid to win over skeptical euro zone – Reuters

David Marsh: The Varoufakis approach: charm, charisma and venom – MarketWatch

Varoufakis Is Brilliant. So Why Does He Make Everyone So Nervous? – BB

Germany will have to yield in dangerous game of chicken with Greece – The Telegraph

Krugman: Syriza is making sense - who’s unreasonable now? – NYT

Duncal Weldon: Clausewitz & Jomini, Greece & the ECB – medium

Greece’s Good Idea: Indexing Its Debt Repayments to Economic Growth – PIIE

Making sense of the latest Greek drama – Humble Student

Street Cautious on Talk of Greek Debt Plan – WSJ

Greece FinMin: No U-Turn, Write-Off Can Occur In Several Methods – ZH

Joseph E. Stiglitz: A Greek Morality Tale – Project Syndicate

Germany Throws Up All Over Varoufakis Proposal, Calls Plan "Half-Baked" – ZH

Weidmann should be promoting (some of) Varoufakis’ ideas – Lars Christensen

Can Greece become competitive overnight? – Bruegel

Syriza may be doing the Eurozone a big favour – Sony Kapoor

Who Owns Greek Debt And When Is It Due? – ZH

Greece alone cannot convince Europe to pursue a different course – Europp / LSE

Merkel Expects Greek Funding Talks to Drag On for Months – BB

Tsipras pulls strings as Varoufakis performs policy somersaults – FT

A major step towards a Greek compromise – Bruegel

Stephen Pope: Greece's debt plan deserves a dressing down – TradingFloor

Greek debt swap plan gets cool euro zone reception – Reuters

Greek Default Options – Econospeak

First Germany, Now ECB Rejects "Latest Greek Bailout Plan" – ZH

For Greece, GDP-linked Debt May Be More Curiousity Than Cure – WSJ

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

ECB considering leaving troika, Germany's Handelsblatt says – ekathimerini 

 

Independence of monetary policy and the banking union – BIS

Speech by Mr Erkki Liikanen, Governor of the Bank of Finland, at the Lamfalussy Lecture Conference, organised by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), Budapest, 2 February 2015.

UNITED STATES

Lew: Global Economy Can’t Depend Just on the U.S. for Growth – WSJ

Monitor: US labour market keeps improving – Danske Bank

[slides] The Great Recession and aftermath – Paul Krugman

  FEDERAL RESERVE

Fed’s Bullard Calls For Breaking Up Nation’s Biggest Banks – WSJ

Bullard warned Tuesday regulatory changes haven’t solved the too-big-to-fail problem in banking, adding that he’d support a break-up of the biggest banks in the U.S.

Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Dives – Tim Duy

Below trend inflation as the economy nears full-employment is a very uncomfortable position for the Federal Reserve. It will be interesting to see how Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen navigates these waters at the upcoming Congressional testimony.

ASIA

  AUSTRALIA RATE CUT

Statement by Governor: Monetary Policy Decision – RBA

An Australian Front in the Currency War – WSJ

Australia Follows Rate Cut Trend – WSJ

Australia's RBA cuts rates to record low 2.25 pct – Reuters

Hardy: AUD set to weaken further – TradingFloor

Asia sags on growth worries, Aussie slides as RBA eases – Reuters

Australia shares rally to 7-year high after rate cut – Reuters

REGULARS

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: New York Fed Tries to Address Plumbing Problems in Fed Funds Market * Fed Survey Finds Some Banks Easing Mortgage Credit * ECB’s Nowotny: Inflation Could Remain Below Zero For Some Months to Come * Australia Cuts Interest Rates to Record Low * Inflation at Five-Year Lows in Developed Economies

Daily Macro – WSJ

A surprise rate cut by Australia’s central bank and a sharp fall in both the eurozone’s producer price index and a consumer price gauge produced by the OECD have offered a telling reminder that falling commodity prices are wreaking havoc with measures of inflation world-wide and creating dilemmas for policy makers.

Eye-Opener – Nordea

Unprecedented Danish interventions * Scandi yields recorded large falls * Scandies diverge

RBA Joins Parade and Market Likes Greek Proposals – Marc to Market

The 25 bp rate cut was not a major surprise but it did catch many a bit off-guard as recent data and the pace of the Australian dollar's decline had prompted many to push out the expectation to next month… for the first time since the election, there is greater confidence in our assessment that the basis of a compromise exists and that talk about a Grexit is premature. 

Daily Shot – TradingFloor

Interest rates are changed fast these days. There is a downward trend in Europe. Long-term bond yield in Greek in the meanwhile remain elevated and equities there were up amid a debt swap suggestion.

US Open – ZH

Futures Rebound Continues As "Greece Concession" Story Picked Up By European Desks, Oil Rises

FX Update: AUD down under after RBA cut – TradingFloor

The Australian dollar was whacked to new lows for the cycle as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates and dovish guidance were clearly not in the price. Elsewhere, the mischievous JPY pushed stronger across the board overnight, taking GBPJPY below a key level .

OTHER

Japanese 10-Year Yield Rises about German 10-Year Yield – Marc to Market

Is the Dollar's Rise Really Perilous? – Marc to Market

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Vain tilastoero voi vauhdittaa Suomen talouskasvua | Jenkkiteollisuuden luottamus ampui yli | USA:sta saadaan joulukuun tehdastilaukset

Roger Wessman: Suomalainen euro vahvistunut – Marketnoze

Euroalueen talousnäkymiä on parantanut euron viimeisen vuoden merkittävä heikkeneminen. Suomen näkökulmasta tilanne on toinen. Painotettuna eri maiden osuudella Suomen viennistä euro on itse asiassa vahvistunut viimeisen vuoden aikana. Syynä on tietysti ennen kaikkea ruplan romahtaminen, mutta myös naapurimaidemme kruunujen arvon kehitys.

Pääkirjoitus: Tuleeko Kreikasta Euroopan Kuuba? – IL

ECR:n entinen puheenjohtaja: Euro ei voi toimia – PS

Perussuomalaiset isännöi parhaillaan europarlamenttiryhmänsä ECR:n kokousta Helsingin Kalastajatorpalla.

  TT-KATSAUS

Tilanne ja näkymät 1/2015: Kasvu käynnistyy investoinneilla – Teknologiateollisuus

Kannattavuus romahtanut – TT: sääntelyn purkamista ja verokannustimia – Verkkouutiset

Sääntö-Suomi saa huutia - "kannattavuus suorastaan romahtanut" – TE

TT katsoo Viroon: yritysten voittoa pitäisi verottaa vain kerran – Verkkouutiset

Teknologiateollisuus: Iso kuva yhä vaikea – KL

  POLITIIKKA

Maailman mielivaltaisin vekotin – Eija-Riitta Korhola / IL

Pääkirjoitus: Arvostavatko mepit työtään? – IL

Pääkirjoitus: Päähallituspuolue syystäkin hädissään – IS

Pääkirjoitus: Punamulta kera perussuomalaisten todennäköisintä – Karjalainen

Perussuomalaisten ikkunaan graffiti: ”Tätä voi pitää vaalirauhan julistuksena” – PS

Perussuomalaisten graffiti töhrittiin heti – "Menee ihan absurdiksi tämä touhu" – YLE

Kulttuuriministeri joutui korjaamaan PS-nuorten avustuksia – PS

  MAAHANMUUTTO

Suomi vastaa vaikeuksiin sulkeutumalla – HS

Onko Suomi sulkeutumassa, Antti Blåfield? – Professorin ajatuksia

Maahanmuuttaja ei ole vain talouden numero – Suomenmaa