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EUROPE
European
Semester 2015: College decisions – EC
ECB's
Coene says euro zone exit possible in theory: paper – Reuters
A country
could in theory leave the euro zone if it wanted to, European Central Bank
policymaker Luc Coene said, but he added that he could not imagine which nation
would want to do so
When do
we decide that Europe must restructure much of its debt? – Michael
Pettis
Few people
realize PIIGS have effectively already restructured their debts with partial
forgiveness, thanks to ECB’s “whatever it takes” in 2012.
Should EZ
crisis countries worry about a reduced Greek primary surplus target? – Bruegel
The
Greek deal: What does it mean for Podemos? – Open Europe
BANK OF ENGLAND
BOE
Launches Search for Theories of Almost Everything – WSJ
The Bank of
England is responding to change – FT
The BoE on
fundamental digital change in central banking – FT
BOE
Launches Search for Theories of Almost Everything Update – WSJ
One Bank Datasets
– BOE
GREECE
Greece’s Reprieve: In Praise of Kicking
the Can Down the Road – PIIE
Ex FinMin
Papaconstantinou’s trial on felony charges over Lagarde-List begins – KTG
Eurozone ok’s
Greek reforms, ECB and IMF concerned about lack of detail – Open Europe
Greek Parliament
is Key to New Starting Point – Marc
to Market
Germany's Schaeuble: credibility of new
Greek plan still in doubt – Reuters
Eurogroup's
Wieser says Grexit was not on the table in talks – Reuters
Grexit not
being discussed: Dijsselbloem – Reuters
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB’s
Longer-Term Loans Expire With Three-Year Bond Rally Legacy – BB
Draghi’s
statement to European Parliament – ECB
UNITED STATES
Simon
Johnson: Obama Steps Up – Project
Syndicate
For the
past six years, US President Barack Obama's
administration has, more often than not, sided with the interests of big banks
on financial-sector policy. But this week, announcing a new proposal to prevent
conflicts of interest in financial advising, Obama seemed to turn an important
corner.
FEDERAL RESERVE
Markets
Exaggerate Yellen's Dovishness – Marc
to Market
Yellen
speech leaves USD bulls in the cold – TF
Warming up
for lift-off - Yellen testimony review – Nordea
The Fed’s
Own Stress Tests Aren’t as Stressful as Its Tests of Banks – WSJ
Yellen: Fed
to Issue Bank Commodity Rules This Year – WSJ
Markets
play chicken with Fed over rates – FT
Volatility
to rise if Fed acts sooner than assumed by bond markets
Yellen
defends central bank independence – FT
ASIA
HSBC PMI
improves in February, major distortions from Chinese New Year unlikely – Danske
Bank
OTHER
Behind
the post-crisis rich-world bond market boom – FT
The supply
of corporate bonds has more than doubled since the precrisis period, with a
little more than 80 per cent of that growth coming from a boom in the supply of
highly-rated bonds.
In the
long run we’re all charted – FT
BofAML’s 2015
look at long term trends in financial markets
USD:
what’s fair anyway?
– Nordea
The normal
pattern of the USD since the early nineties suggests appreciation ahead of the
first Fed rate hike. The case for further appreciation is however less
clear-cut today than three to six months ago. Various “fair value” approaches
yield values between 1.00 and 1.22.
When I
first focused on the question of regional equity allocation, my first instinct
was to think about the eurozone. Upon further study, the excessive optimism
about the eurozone was a surprise to me. My conclusion is to tilt the weight of
the equity portion of a portfolio towards the US and Asia xJapan.
NEGATIVE RATES & DEMOGRAPHICS
Negative
interest rates are here to stay — so get used to them – BI
Negative Is
the New Zero – WSJ
Demography
is destiny, maybe – The Economist
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Goodbye Patient; Hello Reasonably Confident * Yellen Puts Fed on Path to
Lift Rates * ECB Says Greek Reform Proposal a Good Starting Point * The Bank of
England Dove Hunt Is On * Abe Aims to Tip Balance on BOJ Board
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Suddenly
the global economy’s prospects look a bit more hopeful. Greece’s bailout extension means that the
eurozone crisis is off the agenda for a couple of months at least, while the
start of the ECB’s bond purchase program should improve already hopeful signs
across the single-currency’s economy. The Fed and BoE have said they’re in no
particular rush to tighten rates. And now China’s preliminary manufacturing
purchasing managers’ index, released overnight, suggests that the economy’s
sharp slowdown of recent months might have been halted.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Greek
reform proposals pass the first test US rates take a dive on Fed dovishness
EUR/USD ready to break out?
Dollar
Heavy, Bonds and Emerging Markets Rally – Marc
to Market
Daily
Shot – TF
US house price appreciation continues
to trend significantly above wage growth - which has been around 2%, indicating
that homes are becoming increasingly unaffordable for a large portion of the
population. With rents also rising faster than wages and new construction
remaining subdued, lack of affordable housing may become a serious issue for
the US in years to come.
US Open – ZH
Stocks In
Holding Pattern Following Blow-Off Top, Oblivious Of Fed's Warning Of
"Stretched" Valuations
FX
Update – TF
The Yellen
testimony disappointed USD bulls, but can the USD weaken much further without
the next round of incoming data to enlighten us? Elsewhere, the commodity
dollars have jumped the most on Yellen’s perceived dovishness.
From the
Floor – TF
Janet
Yellen's dovish stance took the markets somewhat by surprise yesterday. The
Fixed Income Desk's Simon Fasdal offers some explanation as to why she may have
decided to go down this path.
Daily
Newsletter – TF
The general
conclusion seems to be that US Fed chair Janet Yellen has shifted any
likelihood of a summer hike towards the autumn at the earliest while
maintaining the freedom of movement to act earlier if US data proves to be very
strong in the next few months.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Fed chair's
meta-guidance distracts from more important things
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Yellen täsmensi askelmerkkejä koronnostolle | Ruotsin keskuspankki
julkistaa kokouspöytäkirjan | Kreikan uudistusehdotukset läpäisivät ensimmäisen
testin
Etla: Vientimme Venäjälle putosi kelkasta jo vuonna 2009
– Verkkouutiset
Sivistysvaliokunta vastustaa kansalaisaloitetta – PS
vaatii pakkoruotsin poistamista – Suomen
Uutiset
Pakkoruotsin kumotut perustelut – Sampo Terho