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EUROPE
EU bank
deleveraging – voxeu.org
Following
the financial crisis, European banks have taken steps to revise unsustainable
business models by deleveraging. By this metric they have made substantial
progress – but this column argues that improper management of the deleveraging
process may threaten the recovery. The authors find that equity increases
played a much larger role than asset decreases, and recommend increasing the
disposal of bad assets.
German
economic gloom spooks markets, bolsters EU investment calls – Reuters
The
great Lira revolt has begun in Italy – The
Telegraph
Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard: Italy's Five Star Movement has thrown
down the gauntlet, calling for a euro referendum to end depression and save
democracy, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
EU
agrees laws to end banking secrecy – FT
EU finance
ministers took an important step towards ending banking secrecy in Europe by agreeing legislation that would
require all 28 countries to disclose assets held by foreign EU nationals in
their financial institutions.
Goldman
Slashes European Growth Forecast, Sees Triple-Dip Recession In Q3 – ZH
EUROPEAN
BUDGET TALKS
Eurozone
Budgets Under the Spotlight – Project
Syndicate
Eurozone
governments have enjoyed an extended period of low interest rates. But, as
indebted governments submit their budgets to the European Commission for
review, they should consider the fiscal impact of a sudden reversal in bond-market
sentiment, which is neither entirely rational nor sympathetic to political
rhetoric.
Italy has no intention of tightening its 2015
budget plans, Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said on Tuesday, despite
reports that its budget might be rejected by the European Commission.
Hollande
Touts French Economy Plan as EU Budget Patience Fades – BB
The French
government urged Germany and other European partners on
Tuesday to agree a program of investment that would have a quick economic
impact rather than just boosting growth in the long run.
Merkel
Vows Austerity Even as Growth Projection Cut – BB
Merkel on
Tuesday rejected calls for Berlin to ditch its plans for a balanced
budget next year and to instead invest more in order to shore up the faltering
German and euro zone economies.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (AT COURT)
Timeline:
Events that led to ECB bond-buying programme court case – FT
As the
European Court of Justice begins deliberations on the legality of the European
Central Bank’s bond-buying programme, here are the key dates that got us to
this point
ECB
defends bond plan at top EU court – FT
Central
bank says it was essential in preventing break-up of eurozone
Draghi’s
Whatever It Takes Bid Saved Euro Area, ECB Says – BB
Draghi
helped save the euro with his pledge to do “whatever it takes” as lenders
prepared for a collapse of the currency, an ECB lawyer told a hearing today.
A
declining EUR would be a win-win for Germany and the ECB – TradingFloor
There's
growing disagreement between the ECB and Germany over the appropriate use of
monetary policy but if handled correctly, both can achieve their goals: ECB can
meet its inflation target and the Germans can fend off the need for QE. It all
comes down to the exchange rate.
MACRO NUMBERS
Sweden: September CPI triggers Riksbank
response – Danske
Bank
The
Riksbank to cut rates in October – Nordea
Sweden slides further into deflation,
prices -0.4% – FT
Industrial
production down by 1.8% in euro area – Eurostat
UNITED STATES
US
quantitative measures worked in defiance of theory – FT
Above all,
what matters is less the amount of assets they buy than the credibility of
their commitment to doing what it takes to get the economy back on target. The
BOJ seems to have absorbed that lesson. Whether the ECB has done the same is
far less clear.
More QE
might be appropriate if U.S. economy faltered- Fed's Williams – Reuters
ASIA
Australian
Business Confidence Survey Adds to Gloom on Economy – WSJ
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Despite Mixed Risks in U.S., Rate Timing Hasn’t Shifted Much * Fed’s
Evans Says Biggest U.S. Risk is Premature Rate Hikes * PBOC Makes Further Move
to Ease Policy * Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Jean Tirole * ECB’s Praet
Warns Deflation a Risk in Eurozone
Daily Macro – WSJ
Inflation
data out of the eurozone Tuesday were starkly weaker across the continent, with
outright deflation now a palpable risk, as was industrial output. The French
economy is struggling, but without a clear route to growth in the short term,
and sentiment numbers out of Germany suggest it too might be seizing up.
Although the raft of bad news makes it more likely that the European Central
Bank will be allowed to launch all-out QE, there’s a growing suspicion that
even this won’t be enough. Meanwhile, the region’s anti-European political
parties gain traction.
Poor
European News Lifts the Dollar – Marc
to Market
Global: are
markets adjusting to the end of Fed QE? – Nordea
Global risk
sentiment has deteriorated lately. The turn-around in risk sentiment could be
due to politics or growth-bearish comments from the officialdom. It could
however also be that markets are adjusting to the end of Fed QE. The
Quantitative Tightening theme has explained many market moves over the past few
months and quarters.
Bonds: Plumbing
the depths – Nordea
Bonds are
currently finding support from a multitude of sources, and even though the
yields at offer look almost ridiculous in a longer-term perspective, even lower
yields are ahead. Curves should bull-flatten some more and after near-term
volatility, narrowing in intra-Euro-area spreads is set to continue.
If you
believe the bond markets, we are all Japanese now – FT
Low yields
have an easy explanation: declining growth and low inflation, writes Peter
Tasker
FINNISH
Euroalueen rahapolitiikka tehdään USA:ssa? – Juhani
Huopainen / US
USA:n inflaationäkymät ja EURUSD:n kurssi kulkevat käsi
kädessä
Palvelujen liikevaihto touko-heinäk. +2,8% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Myynti laski elokuussa kaikilla kaupan toimialoilla – Tilastokeskus
Palkansaajien mediaaniansio €2 928/kk vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio kiihtyi syyskuussa 1,3 prosenttiin – Tilastokeskus