Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
Interview with Marine Le Pen: 'I Don't Want
this European Soviet Union' – Spiegel
French right-wing
populist Marine Le Pen discusses the European election victory by her Front
National, German dominance in the EU and her admiration for Russian President
Vladimir Putin.
It appears David
Cameron's strategy has backfired. His campaign to derail Jean-Claude Juncker's
appointment as the next EU Commission president is failing and the British
prime minister may soon suffer a loss of face. Angela Merkel is his only
possible savior.
Economic Outlook Nordics June 2014 – Nordea
The Nordic countries
are still at various stages in the economic cycle. Norway and Sweden are well under way, while Denmark is only slowly ascending from the bottom. Finland is hit by a renewed risk of ending up in a protracted
economic recession.
An Italian déjà-vu – Bruegel
The European
Commission published today its country-specific recommendations, in the context
of the European semester. The leitmotiv, in the case of Italy, is clear and simple: “limited progress” on almost all the six
country-specific recommendations adopted last year by the Council. This year,
the recommendations for Italy are increased to eight, none of which will
look new to the eyes of the informed observer.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
The ECB Will Likely Act, But Is Still Falling
Short – PIIE
The increasingly
dovish rhetoric from ECB officials has already been priced in by financial
markets. This means that the markets would react negatively to a failure to
act, and that it will be harder for Frankfurt to
surprise investors. A package of smaller actions is thus likely.
ECB preview: Rate cuts... and then some – TradingFloor
The ECB Governing
Council is expected not only to cut the three key policy rates at the June
meeting but also to add some measure of credit easing, possibly a vLTRO.
ECB Watch: Mario's moody mixtape of monetary
policy – TradingFloor
On the eve of the
ECB's latest policy-setting jamboree, the market's eagerness to discover the
true meaning of "whatever it takes" is palpable. But the blindingly
obvious (and painful) fact is that QE is a gargantuan waste of money.
The Market Says the ECB Will Act. What to
Expect Next – WSJ
What Exactly is in the ECB’s Toolkit? – WSJ
The ECB’s Negative Deposit Rate – The Short
Answer – WSJ
The ECB can and should make the ABS market
happen – FT
The rate that banks
charge small and medium businesses in Spain, Italy, France and Germany. Italian
and Spanish rates fell, though are still well above French and German rates.
Inflating Deflation: Confusing Symptoms with
the Illness – Marc
to Market
ECB preview: Rate cuts... and then some – TradingFloor
ECB Watch: Mario's moody mixtape of monetary
policy – TradingFloor
Weakening the Euro, Easier Said Than Done – WSJ
Lithuania and
the ECB’s governing council – FT
If Lithuania’s accession goes ahead, from January, only the
members of the executive board, which include ECB president Mario Draghi, will
still be able to vote at each meeting. Under the new system, the number of
voters will be capped at 21, meaning there will be four central bank governors
at each meeting who do not vote.
MACRO
NUMBERS
Euro area GDP up by
0.2%, EU28 up by 0.3% - Eurostat
Euro GDP growth driven
by domestic demand – Danske
Bank
Industrial producer
prices down by 0.1% in both euro area and EU28 – Eurostat
UNITED STATES
Calm or Complacency, in Three Charts – WSJ
The market is
fluctuating much less on a daily basis now than it was at the end of last year…So
far in 2014, there have only been three instances where the market moved by
more than 2% in a given day. That compares to seven such days last year, 12 in
2012, 68 in 2011 and 133 during the depths of the financial crisis in 2008.
The question of crowding out with the Fed's
reverse repo program – Sober
Look
Some economists have
raised concerns that the Fed's experimental reverse repo program (RRP) could
crowd out banks. The latest data from Barclays shows that as RRP expanded,
money market funds have been placing a greater percentage of their overnight
liquidity with the Fed rather than with banks.
Check-up on S&P 500 Sector Breadth – Bespoke
MACRO
NUMBERS
Trade Deficit Soars To
2 Year High, To Slam Lofty Q2 GDP Expectations – ZH
This US April Trade
Balance number is a shocker - TradingFloor
Trade Deficit
increased in April to $47.2 Billion – Calculated
Risk
Q1 Productivity
Misses; Plunges By Most In 6 Years – ZH
179K Jobs Far Below
Expectations, Lowest Print Since January – ZH
US ISM non-manufacturing hits 9-month high in May – TradingFloor
ISM Non-Manufacturing:
May Beats Expectations – dshort
ISM Non-Manufacturing
Index increased in May to 56.3 – Calculated
Risk
ISM Services Beats;
Jumps To 9-Month Highs... They Think – ZH
ISM Services Stronger
Than Expected – Bespoke
OTHER
Strategy: Bond yields bottoming – Danske
Bank
Weekly Focus: ECB has the potential to surprise – Danske
Bank
Daily Central Banks – WSJ
Blackstone’s Take: Has
Draghi Waited Too Long? * Fed Officials Growing Wary of Market Complacency * ECB
Ready to Tackle Europe’s Weak Inflation Thursday * ECB Officials Anxious About
Impact of U.S. Fines on EU Banks * Global
Inflation Picks Up in April
Daily Macro – WSJ
On Friday, we get the
all-important U.S. May jobs report, for which today’s private payrolls estimate from
Automated Data Processing will be viewed as a less-than-perfect proxy. But
before that, we need to deal with one of the most hotly anticipated meetings of
the European Central Bank in recent history. The ECB is expected to take some
sort of action to stimulate the economy, and will choose from a range of
radical to less-radical measures. If it doesn’t act, the market reaction could
be quite violent.
FINNISH
Nordea
arvioi Suomen olevan jo lamassa – YLE
Suomen talous supistuu jo kolmatta vuotta
perättäin. Nordean pääekonomistin Aki Kangasharjun mukaan Suomen
luottoluokituksen laskeminen ei ole poissuljettu vaihtoehto.
Vilkaisepa
näitä 9 Nordean grafiikkaa, jotka kertovat Suomen olevan lamassa – TE
Miksi
kultakanta ei ole hyvä idea – Takkirauta
EKP:n
toimille vihreätä valoa talousluvuista – Roger
Wessman
EK:n
Häkämies taloustilanteesta: "Suomi on mutasarjassa" – HS
Suomen tilanne on tulevaisuuden näkymien
suhteen samassa viiteryhmässä Espanjan, Italian ja Kreikan kaltaisten maiden
kanssa, sanoo Elinkeinoelämän keskusliiton (EK) toimitusjohtaja Jyri Häkämies.
"Lyhennysrahoilla
saisi talouskasvua" – HS
Swedbankin Michael Wolfin mukaan Suomen talous
kasvaisi, jos lainoja lyhennettäisiin hitaammin
Keskiajan
paluu ja tiedevastaisuus – Tyhmyri
Helsingin Sanomat ja tahaton huumori
Perussuomalaisten
ryhmä europarlamentissa on ECR – PS
Antti
Rinne Suomen uusi EVM-edustaja? – Juha
Hämäläinen / US
Nordean
lama-puheille tyrmäys: Käynnissä pitkäkestoinen taantuma – HS
EKP ja
narulla työntämisen vaikeus – Valtteri
Aaltonen / US
Vattin
Juhana Vartiainen suomii ekonomisteja vääristä analyyseistä – HS