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EUROPE
Bloomberg Brief: the
difference in economic performance (and mood) between France and Germany, often
referred to as the European “engine,” is at a record high. This disparity is
likely to weaken France and isolate Germany further, heightening political
tensions and indecision in the euro area.
A Manifesto for European Change – Project
Syndicate
Tony Blair: Complacency about anti-EU parties'
strong showing in the recent European Parliament election, on the grounds that
there remains a pro-European majority, is dangerous. The balance between the EU
and its member states must be re-addressed, with institutions reformed to make
them more accountable and closer to those they govern.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Draghi Is "Desperate To Avoid A
Japan-Style Lost Decade"
– ZH
SocGen on ECB.
Europe needs a 'Big Bazooka', but the ECB is
preparing a peashooter – The
Telegraph
Europe’s high command
has convinced itself the worst is over, and with a little fine tuning by the
ECB, decent growth will return
Markets now expect shock and awe from the ECB – Sober
Look
Unless we see
"shock and awe" from the central bank, global markets will be quite
disappointed.
Napoleon’s Yields No Comfort to Draghi Fighting
Deflation – BB
Europe’s lowest
government bond yields since the Napoleonic Wars are signaling investors want
more action from Mario Draghi.
There’s a Risk the ECB Will Just Push Deflation
Elsewhere – WSJ
It’ll be a relief if
the ECB manages to get the euro-zone economy going again, but not if that
growth comes at the cost of slowdowns and deflation elsewhere.
MAY
INFLATION TO 0.5%
Annual inflation down to
0.5% - Eurostat
Inflation Slowing More
Than Forecast Pressures ECB – BB
Inflation dives as ECB
poised to act – Reuters
Inflation back at cycle
low, ECB will surprise markets – Danske
Bank
Sub-zero Deposit Rates
Imminent As Inflation Tumbles To March 2009 Levels – ZH
UNITED STATES
June 2014: What Will Drive SPX Higher in the
Next 12 Months? The
Fat Pitch
ASIA
Australian House Prices Take a Breather – WSJ
Some of the heat has
come out of Australia’s surging house prices, but analysts don’t expect big
falls ahead. According to property research group RP Data-Rismark, capital city
house prices fell 1.9% in May from April, the first monthly fall in a year and
the biggest one-month decline in more than five years.
Australia: From mining to dining – FT
A cooling Chinese
economy has hurt the mining sector, prompting protests over the tough new
budget
China PMIs fuel hope economy is stabilizing, property
still a wild card – Reuters
China HSBC Manufacturing Index Rises to
Four-Month High – BB
Arresting China’s slowdown: the search for
sustainable growth – FT
There are no signs
that China’s slowdown has bottomed out. A turnround would require some
combination of a pickup in investment, exports or consumption in the midst of
current efforts to deleverage and this is unlikely to happen soon.
OTHER
The 35 economic charts from May you really
should see – Quartz
Daily Macro – WSJ
Whereas last year was
about Asia’s downturn and Europe’s recovery, we are back to worrying about Europe’s return renewed slowdown and disinflationary
pressures.
Daily Central Banks - WSJ
Douglas’ Take: Predicting Timing of BOE Rate Hikes
About to Get Murkier * Euro-Zone Inflation
Rate Falls in May * India’s Central Bank Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged * China Central Bank
Calls for More-Targeted Policy-Loosening Steps
FINNISH
Saksan
korko lähes yhtä pieni kuin Napoleonin aikaan – TalSa
Saksan kymmenvuotisen valtiolainan korko
liikkuu lähellä 200 vuoden takaisia lukemiaan. Napoleonin sotien aikaiset tasot
kertovat siitä, että sijoittajat haluavat EKP:n toimivan, jotta talous ei
jämähtäisi täysin.
EU
armahti Suomen: Velka selittyy kriisirahastoilla – TalSa
Euroopan komissio on päättänyt, että Suomea
koskevaa alijäämämenettelyä ei ole tarpeen aloittaa.
VATT-analyysi:
Maahanmuuttajien kotouttaminen kannattaa – VATT