Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
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EUROPE
A big defeat but Juncker's appointment is not
the end of the road for EU reform – Open
Europe
Giving the banks more
money for lending is surely not the answer to a demand problem
After a good start
into 2014, manufacturing output in Germany looks set to grow by 4% in real terms in the
full year. Even though business expectations have recently weakened somewhat,
they remain in positive territory. Despite the good labour market situation in Germany inflation has decelerated noticeably. The
outlook of a recovering global economy, a sliding euro and the introduction of
a nation-wide minimum wage in Germany lead us to forecast that inflation is
bottoming out. After hitting 1.1% in the current year it could pick up to 1.6%
in 2015.
Frances Coppola: Less
than a month ago, the IMF gave Bulgaria’s banking system a clean bill of health,
saying it was “stable and liquid, with banks’ non-performing loans buffered by
provisions and significant capital, as well as a positive net foreign asset
position”. But yesterday, the President of Bulgaria was forced to issue a
statement reassuring people that their money was safe after a week of bank
runs. And the EU has now granted Bulgaria an emergency line of credit to support its
banking system.
Jean-Claude Juncker is
set to finally become president of the European Commission, but what direction
is the Continent heading in? Debate between European Council President Herman Van
Rompuy, star investor George Soros and former French Finance Minister Pierre
Moscovici.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
ECB clarification on LTRO to headline central
bank meetings in July – TradingFloor
For eurozone recovery QE is not the answer – The
Telegraph
The eurozone, for all
the improved mood music, remains on the brink of recession
Decoding Draghi: Banks Still Puzzle Over ECB
Grand Plan – BB
Euro Calls Rally to Highest Since 2009 as
Draghi Defied – BB
Monetary developments
in the euro area – ECB
Money supply
accelerates in May – TradingFloor
Early signs of
improvement in money supply and credit – Danske
Bank
European Household
Loans Plunge By Most On Record – ZH
Euro zone loans slump,
ECB waits for new measures to kick in – Reuters
Euro area annual inflation
stable at 0.5% - Eurostat
Inflation unchanged in
June, core prices surprise to the upside – TradingFloor
Inflation remained low
at 0.5% - we expect it to stay low until Q4 – Danske
Bank
Euro-Area Inflation
Steady at 0.5% Shows Draghi Challenge – BB
ECB to wait for June
measures to bite as inflation stays low – Reuters
Euro area inflation –
Steady as she goes – Nordea
UNITED STATES
Fed’s Williams Upbeat on Growth, But Sees No
Rush on Rates – WSJ
Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Activtiy Increases in June –
Calculated
Risk
U.S. Midwest business
index dips in June – Reuters
Pending Home Sales
Jump In May; Drop YoY For 8th Month In A Row – ZH
Pending Home Sales +6.1%
in May, -5.2% y-o-y – Calculated
Risk
U.S. pending home sales hit eight-month high in May – Reuters
ASIA
What Central Bankers Will Watch in the Tankan
Business Survey – WSJ
Abe’s Bullseye – Project
Syndicate
Over the last 18
months, the first and second "arrows" of Abenomics – expansionary
monetary and fiscal policies – have achieved considerable success in spurring Japan’s economic renewal. Now it is time for Abe to
launch his third and final arrow: an ambitious reform package focused on
reducing barriers to growth for businesses.
OTHER
Daily Macro – WSJ
It will take a while
to untangle the effects of April’s tax rise on the Japanese economy. It caused
consumption to surge before the tax went into effect and then collapse after. Inflation
rocketed but wage growth hasn’t kept pace, suggesting a squeeze on discretionary
spending. Industry has been rocked as well. All of these effects should settle
over the coming months, at which point it should be clearer whether Abenomics’
other measures are managing to generate sustainable underlying growth and
positive inflation. Meanwhile, the market’s focus will be on U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unusually, due to be
released on Thursday.
Daily Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: A
Warning From Basel On China’s Debt-Driven Growth * Fed’s Bullard: Markets Right
to Play Down Gloomy GDP Report * Euro-Zone Inflation Rate Stays at Lowest Level
in Over Four Years * Global Markets’ Strength Doesn’t Reflect Economic Outlook,
Central Banks Say * Security Detail for Fed Chairwoman Irks Neighbors
FX: let's get real! – Nordea
With ECB having nailed
rates to the bottom... please, BE surprised if low EMU inflation leads to
weaker EUR from now on.
BIS
ANNUAL REPORT
BIS Annual Report – BIS
‘Euphoric’ capital markets are out of step with
reality, warns BIS – FT
BIS warns that
“euphoric” financial markets have become detached from the reality of a
lingering post-crisis malaise, as it called for governments to ditch policies
that risk stoking unsustainable asset booms.
Central Bankers, Worried About Bubbles, Rebuke
Markets – NYT
BIS warned dangerous
new asset bubbles were forming even before the global economy has finished recovering
from the last round of financial excess.
Here are the countries showing early warning
signs for banking crises – Quartz
According to the BIS
report, Asia is the region that seems to be at most risk,
with China in particular creating cause for concern. Switzerland, Turkey, and Brazil are also sending serious warning signals.
FINNISH
"EU
ilman Iso-Britanniaa ei ole hyväksyttävissä" – Verkkouutiset
Saksan valtiovarainministeri Wolfgang Schäuble
tyrmää Financial Timesin haastattelussa mahdottomana ajatuksen Ison-Britannian
EU-erosta.
Junckerin
nimitys – ‘lisää Eurooppaa’ ja brittien EU-ero? – Juhani
Huopainen / US
EU:n
rahastoista pankkien rahoitus - budjetin varainkäyttöön kuuluvaa? – Sirpa
Abdallah / US
Olipa
kerran impivaara – Janne
Suuronen / US
Stubbin
ja Rinteen hallituksen leikkaukset – Heikki
Patomäki / US
Vasemmiston
populismi pistää sylettämään – Eetu
Kinnunen / US
Tavaroiden ulkomaankaupan kuukausitilasto
huhtikuussa 2014 – Tulli
Osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat toukokuussa – Tilastokeskus
Valtionhallinnon nettorahoitusvarat hupenivat
edelleen Q1 2014 – Tilastokeskus
Kotitalouksien nettorahoitusvarat supistuivat Q1
2014 – Tilastokeskus
Julkisyhteisöjen velka kasvoi 3,4 miljardia
euroa Q1 2014 – Tilastokeskus
Suurten yritysten liikevaihto supistui toukok.
2,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus