(note: ECB-special updated, mandatory reading)
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
It is time to save the
EU –
Reuters
John Lloyd: Believe it or not, recent setbacks for the European Union
leadership could actually help to save the EU.
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Gideon Rachman: I do think it is fair to argue that the EU has never
really had a Ukraine strategy. At no
point, has it really worked out what the desired end-point of policy towards Ukraine should be – and what
this might require in terms of resources and risks.
Gazprom’s $910
Billion Gaffe Shows Putin Economy Waning – BB
Medvedev was off by $910 billion. Since he made that forecast, no
company among the world’s top 5,000 has suffered a bigger collapse in market
capitalization than Gazprom, a $154 billion plunge that’s become emblematic of
the malaise that has overtaken President Vladimir Putin’s economy. The
state-run company has tumbled three straight years in the stock market as it
stepped up spending on everything from the Olympic games in Sochi to projects in Siberia.
MACRO NUMBERS
Volume of retail trade up by 0.4% in euro area – Eurostat
Eurozone retail sales point to growth uptick in Q1 – TradingFloor
Euro retail sales stronger than expected in February – Danske
Bank
UNITED STATES
ISM Non-Manufacturing: March Shows Improvement, But Slightly Below
Expectations – dshort
ISM increases to 53.1 in March – Calculated
Risk
ISM Weaker Than Expected – Bespoke
5 Things to Watch for in March Jobs Report – WSJ
Jobs preview: Pay less attention to the sausage, and more to how it’s
made – WaPo
ASIA
China outlined a package
of measures including railway spending and tax relief to support the economy
and create jobs after a slowdown endangered Premier Li Keqiang’s target of 7.5
percent growth this year.
China’s debt is poised to
keep expanding faster than the economy through at least 2016, testing the
limits of a credit-driven growth model that’s already exceeded the imbalances
in Japan before its lost
decade.
With falling growth and mounting debt, the Chinese government is taking
action: tax cuts for smaller firms, increasing railway investment; a mini
stimulus package to ease the effects of the slowdown. The big question: Will it
work?
OTHER
EMEA Weekly, Week 15 – Danske
Bank
The crisis in Ukraine has made NBP
reconsider monetary tightening * A minor de-escalation of the Ukrainian crisis
Are Emerging Markets
Still On the Receiving End? – iMFdirect
The recent slowdown in
emerging market growth is fueling a growing mania across markets and policy
circles.
MARKIT MARCH PMI
China Composite PMI
Tumbles To 28-Month Lows As Services Fell (& Rose) – ZH
Price cuts aid first-quarter growth for euro zone businesses – Reuters
Euro zone private sector logs strongest quarter in three years – Reuters
Euro-Area Services Output Stays Close to 2011 High as ECB Meets – BB
German private sector expansion eases in March – Reuters
UK service sector
expands steadily in March, points to strong Q1 growth – Reuters
U.K. Services Index
Unexpectedly Falls to Nine-Month Low – BB
INSIGHTS Q2 BY SAXO BANK
Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy: While the equities party is far
from over, investors will increasingly have to make specific country, sector
and stock bets to outperform.
Commodity Outlook:
Taking stock – TradingFloor
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy: A whirlwind first quarter for
commodities is unlikely to be repeated in Q2 as a perfect cocktail of
ingredients will inevitably fade.
Macro Outlook:
Strength in numbers – TradingFloor
Mads Koefoed, Head of Macro Strategy: The global economy may not be in a
stellar growth mode, but there is every sign that a recalibrated engine is
shifting into a higher gear.
http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/insights-q2-macro-outlook-strength-numbers-1425528808
Forex Outlook: Dollar
looks to spring – TradingFloor
John J Hardy, Head of FX Strategy: The USD looks set to leave behind its
winter doldrums, while the EUR could be in for a tougher quarter. But Russia’s intervention in Ukraine could scupper
markets if the crisis escalates.
Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist & CIO: Europe faces its biggest
electoral challenge in May and if Brussels listens to voters,
it could mark a decisive turning point for the failing EU experiment. But there
are fears that the opportunity will slip through its hands.
FINNISH
Propagandasota alkoi SDP:ssä – IL
Ryhmäjohtaja
Jouni Backman epäilee, onko kohuttua Urpilaista ulos savustavaa lähetystöä
oikeasti olemassakaan.
Valtionvelasta – Valtteri
Aaltonen / US
Varoitus Suomelle: “Negatiivinen kierre voisi
vahvistua” – Uusi
Suomi
Valtiovarainministeriö
varoittaa Suomea negatiivisen kierteen vahvistumisesta taloudessa, jos maan
talouspolitiikan uskottavuus menetetään.
Keskustelutilaisuus kehysriihen taustoittamiseksi – VM
Julkisen talouden suunnitelma vuosille
2015–2018- VM