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EUROPE
Titus Maccius Plautus and the EU Troika – Money
Matters
Another positive
influence of the troika: the great improvements in the structural conditions in
the product and labour markets.
Strong Euro? Blame the Rejig of FX Reserves – WSJ
POLITICS
Jean Pisani-Ferry: If
Europe were politically unified, issues stemming from growing economic
divergences among EU member states would dominate the run-up to May’s European
Parliament election. Instead, the issue that matters most to voters – and to Europe – has remained outside the scope of the
campaign.
The rise of Euroscepticism across Europe has
masked general apathy about the European elections among voters – Europp
/ LSE
The real threat to
European integration is not a large Eurosceptic vote, but the potential for a
low turnout brought about through general apathy toward the EU among ordinary
voters.
Pro-EU politicians have so far failed to match
the level of vision and imagination shown by Eurosceptics in the EP election
campaign – Europp
/ LSE
The May elections are
expected to see a significant increase in support for Eurosceptic parties. Eurosceptic
parties have offered is a clear vision of the future of Europe and pro-EU politicians have an obligation to
present the other side of the debate.
Europe's financial crisis is evolving into a
political crisis * Trust in the EU and in governments is eroding rapidly * The
North/South fault line will eventually crack open
BANK OF
ENGLAND
Britain Outlines Stress Test for Its Banks – WSJ
The Bank of England
says banks will have to have enough capital to withstand 12 percent
unemployment and a 35 percent decline in housing prices. -
IS BOE’s Carney Targeting Wage Growth? – WSJ
Carney declared that
“substantial” wage rises will be needed to ensure the economic recovery that
began last year is sustained. That is an unusual message for a central banker
to deliver.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Draghi Tells German Lawmakers ECB
Bond-Purchases Unlikely – BB
Draghi told German
lawmakers that a quantitative-easing program isn’t imminent and is relatively
unlikely for now, according to a euro-area official present at the meeting.
Until the euro zone’s
banking sector has been put onto a sound footing, the problems with credit
transmission are bound to persist. The ECB and the banks’ regulator is trying
to do this by imposing severe stress tests and capital requirements. But the
process takes time.
A paper published by
the ECB explains why: market-based measures of inflation expectations vary less
in the euro zone than they do in the U.S.
More hope than conviction for euro zone
inflation rebound – MacroScope
/ Reuters
With unemployment
still endemic across the euro zone – in Spain it is now nearly 26 percent – how could anyone
really be convinced a wage-generated rebound in inflation is just around the
corner?
BANK
STRESS TESTS
EU unveils tougher bank tests in bid to draw
line under crisis – Reuters
European banks must
show they can survive simultaneous routs in bonds, property and stocks, in the
toughest test so far by regulators aiming to restore confidence in an industry
that had to be rescued by taxpayers in the financial crisis.
ECB to give banks 6-9 months to cover capital
shortfalls – ECB
Note on the comprehensive assessment - April
2014 – ECB
ECB Squeezed and EBA Posts Stress Test
Scenarios – Marc
to Market
Deutsche Bank’s Capital Buffer Remains a Thorny
Issue – WSJ
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
U.S. Drip-Feed of Sanctions Seen Risking Putin
Backlash – BB
Russia Recession Risk Seen at Record High as Sanctions Escalate – Businessweek
EU sanctions, the
sequel – FT
The Kremlin Doesn’t
Believe in Friends – BB
Russia Recession Risk Seen Rising on Sanctions – BB
MACRO NUMBERS
Euro zone sentiment,
inflation expectations dip in April – Reuters
European sentiment still
suffering crisis blues – TradingFloor
Euro-Area April
Economic Confidence Unexpectedly Declines – BB
German inflation,
pointing to euro zone, picks up less than expected – Reuters
German Inflation
Misses Estimates as ECB Pressure Mounts – BB
German inflation lower
than expected, we revise EZ forecast down – Danske
Bank
Monetary development
in the euro area March 2014 – ECB
Euro money supply
showed further weakness in March – Danske
Bank
UK economy grows at fastest pace in over six years – Reuters
UK Economic Growth Quickens to 0.8% as Recovery Broadens – BB
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
FOMC preview: Fed to point to better data but
otherwise very little change –
Danske
Bank
Three Fed Nominees
Might Not Be Confirmed by June – WSJ
Fischer Gains Support
of Senate Panel for Fed Vice Chairman – BB
Federal Reserve
nominees clear key hurdle – WaPo
MACRO
NUMBERS
Consumer Confidence
Misses; Present Situation Tumbles Most In 15 Months – ZH
April U.S. Consumer
Confidence Slips to 82.3, Below Expectations – WSJ
ASIA
IMF: Three Reasons Not to Worry About a Crisis
in China – WSJ
China owes most of its
debt to itself * Government debt is low * China’s slowdown, like its economy,
is central planned.
OTHER
The EM rally – is it over already? – FT
It may be early to
call the end of the EM rally of the past couple of months but the latest EM
portfolio flows tracker from the Institute of International Finances adds to a feeling that it is losing some of
its puff.
*Why AUDJPY is the Swiss army knife for traders – TradingFloor
Whether you trade
single stocks or index CFDs, I can’t think of a more relevant item than the
AUDJPY to keep on the screens. In 2012, it was the European sovereign bonds. In
2013, it was the EURJPY. But AUDJPY is forever – and it just might have a story
to tell you at this very moment.
Commodities Forecast Update – Danske
Bank
Battling extreme
weather and geopolitics
Schlesinger’s Take: In
Japan: Dueling Forecasts, Dueling Visions * BofA Errors in Capital Plan Forces
Suspension of Buybacks, Dividend Boost * Three Fed Nominees Might Not Be
Confirmed by June * Draghi Says ECB Still Unlikely to Engage in Large-Scale
Asset Purchases * EU Sets Bank Stress-Test Scenarios
Macro Horizons: Signs of Global Trade Pickup,
Also of Euro-Zone Deflation – WSJ
FINNISH
Onko
pankkitoiminnan kieltäminen ratkaisu? – Roger
Wessman
Lisää
joko-tai –näkemyksiä – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Euroalueen sisäiset eroavaisuudet näyttäytyvät
kaikkialla...Mutta ainoa asia, jossa tällaisia eroja ei hyväksytä on
valtiolainojen hinnoittelussa.
Haparointia
Euroalueella, synkkää Suomessa – Roger
Wessman
Euroalueen talouselämän luottamusluvut
heikkenivät hivenen huhtikuussa. Haparoinnista huolimatta luottamusluvut
edelleen tukevat kuvaa euroalueen toipumisesta. Luottojen kehitys antaa
synkemmän kuvan. Suomen talouden luottamusluvut eivät vieläkään ennakoi mitään
piristymistä.
SDP:
markkinat vai menneisyys? – Talouden
Tulkki
SDP:n johdossa taistellaan nykyisen
markkinavetoisen talouden hyväksymisestä ja paluusta menneisyyteen.
Valtiouskoon nojaava 70-lukulainen linja näyttäisi jäävän tappiolle.
Aatteen
paloa vai valtionhoitoa? – Hannu
Visti
Demarit ja Kokoomus ovat valitsemassa
puheenjohtajaa. Tätä katsellessa voi katsella suomalaista puoluekenttää
yleisesti, ja ehkä jopa yhdistää laajemmalti ainakin protestanttiseen
Eurooppaan.
Kokoomuksen
sisäpiiri epäilee Stubbin kykyjä – IS
Stubbilla voisi olla hankala saada tukijakseen
edes viittä kansanedustajaa enempää, IS:n politiikan toimittaja Mika Lehto
kirjoittaa.
Ajankohtainen
kakkonen laski: Virolaiselle työttömälle jopa 30 000 euroa – YLE
Ajankohtainen kakkonen laski Kelan tietoihin
perustuen kuinka paljon kuvitteellinen virolainen kirvesmies Martin ja hänen
perheensä voisivat saada sosiaaliturvaetuisuuksia Suomesta. Loppusumma nousi
kymmeniin tuhansiin euroihin.