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EUROPE
IMF preferred creditor status and the Eurozone
crisis – voxeu.org
By lending €30 billion
to Greece in 2010, the IMF introduced the option to
permanently waive the requirement that a borrowing country is on the path to
stability. This option increases the chance of moral hazard and undermines the
strong framework for the preferred creditor status.
EU Nations Seeking Transaction Levy Remain
Stuck on What to Tax – BB
The 11 participating
countries remain divided on whether to tax all derivatives, only equity
derivatives or no derivatives at all, EU documents show… Proponents of the FTT,
led by France and Germany, are trying to reach an agreement before the election in a bid to woo
voters. The governments are now debating a phased approach that could target a
wider range of trades in future years.
Believers in a more
centrally managed Europe contend that unstable surroundings will jell the EU
together, just as the looming presence of the British navy helped unite the
United States.
Banks are telling
clients that Portugal is strong enough to exit its bailout program
next month without the need for a financial backstop.
No Edward, that's not how it works – Ibex
Salad
Riksbank Won’t Tolerate More Price Shocks, af
Jochnick Says – BB
BANK
STRESS TESTS
Deflation, emerging market fears set scene for
tough EU bank tests – Reuters
Fears of euro zone
deflation, emerging markets turmoil and a determination not to repeat past
mistakes mean European regulators are likely to come up with the toughest set
of tests for the region's banks that they have ever faced.
The negative impact of
the shocks, which include also stress in the commercial real estate sector, as
well as a foreign exchange shock in central and eastern Europe, is
substantially global. For most advanced economies, including Japan and the U.S., the scenario results in a negative response
of GDP ranging between 5-6 percent in cumulative terms compared to the
baseline.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
ECB needs to look at QE but also at its
effectiveness: Hansson – Reuters
Printing money to buy
assets is something the ECB should keep looking at, but the effectiveness of
all policy tools must be considered, along with when they might be used, ECB
policymaker Ardo Hansson said.
ECB chief sees low inflation persisting but QE
still distant: source – Reuters
Draghi told lawmakers
from Germany's ruling coalition on Monday that low
inflation would persist in the euro zone but quantitative easing remains a way
off, according to a source who took part in the meeting.
Press release – ECB
Integration in
European financial markets improved, but still worse than before crisis, new
European Commission, ECB reports show
Constâncio: Reflections on financial
integration and stability – ECB
Euro Zone Making Progress, Says ECB’s
Constancio – WSJ
ECB’s Noyer Sees Strong Euro Weighing on Prices – WSJ
Euro inflation outlook and implications for the
ECB – Danske
Bank
The message from the
ECB is that a worsening of its outlook for price stability would warrant a
monetary policy response, but it needs more information to assess whether this
is the case…the lower inflation in 2014 will not necessarily lead to a change
in the medium-term outlook for inflation and we think it is 50-50 whether the
ECB will ease in June. The better growth outlook and a potentially higher
growth forecast in 2014 makes more easing less likely
Germany’s low inflation rate even in light of the strength of its currency is a
puzzle.
Draghi Awaits Pivotal Price Data That Could
Spur Action – BB
The most-radical
policy decision of Mario Draghi’s 2 1/2 years so far at the helm of the
European Central Bank could hinge on a single piece of data.
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
The U.S. and European
Union will impose new sanctions as early as Monday on Russian companies and
individuals close to President Vladimir Putin over the escalating crisis in
Ukraine
Joschka Fischer: Sanctions
will not impress Vladimir Putin enough to persuade him to change course on Ukraine, because he and his cronies are isolating Russia economically and financially more effectively
than most sanctions could. Peaceful yet tangible political steps within the EU,
including the creation of a European energy union, just might.
US Unveils New
Sanctions Against 7 Russians, 17 Companies – ZH
U.S. Strikes at Putin’s Inner Circle With Sanctions as Fight Over Ukraine
Intensifies – BB
Europe's Armies Don't Scare Putin – BB
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
FOMC Week – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
I anticipate a
relatively unevently FOMC meeting. The data flow appears sufficiently
consistent with the Fed's forecast to hold policy in check.
What you need to know about the Fed’s meeting
this week – WaPo
ASIA
Myth of a Japanese
economic recovery * More stimulus soon * Wage growth around the corner * Positives
from inflation…Offset by bond market risks
China must act cautiously in cutting leverage ratios in the corporate and
government sectors, as any abrupt move could deal a blow to an economy that is
already slowing, a senior central bank official said in remarks published on
Monday.
OTHER
Ranking
Economic Data – Calculated
Risk
Global Macro Part 3: Stocks & Bonds – Short Side
of Long
Cyclical equity
sectors are starting to under-perform defensives * Stock vs Bond ratio is
giving us a bearish non-confirmation! * Treasuries have done poorly over the
last year & could rebound! *
Should you sell in May? – Humble
Student
The technical warning
signs of equity weakness are clear to see. For the past several weeks, I have
been voicing technical concerns about the stock market. This year seems to be a
market where the adage of ”Sell in May and go away” is applicable. What puzzles
me is the lack of a fundamental trigger for the decline.
Central Banks: Fed on Track to Hold Policy
Steady, Mull Economic Puzzles –
WSJ
Macro: Investors Have Day of Rest Before Busy
Week – WSJ
GDP Nominally Disappoints – WSJ
How are economies
doing on the nominal front? Not only are they doing considerably worse than
they did in the years before the crisis–with the exception of Germany and
Japan–but all the major developed countries are falling significantly short of
5% nominal growth rates.
New Financial Forecasts – Nordea
We have lifted the
near-term US rates forecasts, while keeping the EUR rates forecasts unchanged, and
we have made minor adjustments to our forecasts for EURNOK, USDJPY, EURCHF and
USDCNY. We also take the opportunity to summarise the recent changes to our
Riksbank and EURSEK forecasts, while we have kept all Danish forecasts
unchanged despite the surprise (deposit) rate hike from Nationalbanken last
week.
Viikkokatsaus:
Vauhti paranee – Nordea
Tällä viikolla: Euroalueen inflaatio nopeutuu
* Fed pienentää ostojaan * Työllisyysluvut Yhdysvalloista * Q1:n BKT-kierros
alkaa (USA, UK). Viime viikolla: Luottamus vahvistui euroalueella
FINNISH
Rationaaliset
valtionlainamarkkinat? – Roger
Wessman
OMT ja
korkoerojen lasku – Roger Wessman
Kulutus
pysyy alamaissa – Roger Wessman
Buranalla
hoidettu aivokasvain – Antero
Vartia / US
Euroskeptinen
puolue ykkönen Britanniassa – Verkkouutiset
EK:
Teollisuusyritysten luottamus EU-maiden toiseksi heikointa – Verkkouutiset
Synkkä
ennuste: Pitkäaikaistyöttömyys jatkaa kasvuaan – Verkkouutiset
Työllisyys ei lähde heti nousuun, vaikka
talous kääntyisi kasvuun, todetaan työ- ja elinkeinoministeriön tuoreessa
työmarkkinaennusteessa.
Osakeasuntojen
hinnat nousivat hieman maaliskuussa – Tilastokeskus
Kuluttajien
luottamus heikkeni huhtikuussa – Tilastokeskus