Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
EUROPE
French President Hollande, fresh from a stunning defeat in local
elections is signaling that he will once seek the EC (and Germany's) forbearance to
relax the fiscal rules yet again for the euro zone's second largest economy.
France Criticizes European Commission as "Totally
Useless", Wants More Time on Budget Deficits – Mish’s
What do indicators measuring poverty and inequality actually show?
NATO Reassures East
Allies as It Questions Russian Pullback – BB
NATO said it will
recommit to defending frontline states in eastern Europe that have been unsettled
by the seizure of Crimea as the alliance reported no signs of a Russian troop
pullback from Ukraine’s borders.
Putin’s World – Project
Syndicate
The West has no idea what Russia is willing to do,
but Russia knows exactly what
the West will – and, more important, will not – do. This has created a
dangerous asymmetry, which could spell disaster for the international order
that has existed since the end of the Cold War.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Draghi Europe
Scenario Points to Lowflation Still Painful – BB
For all the fears of a Japan-style era of deflation, a more likely
threat for Europe is what IMF officials are calling lowflation.
ECB Preview: The
balance is set to tilt to more easing – Danske
Bank
We see the odds slightly in favour of further ECB easing this week. The Governing
Council has discussed more easing at the latest ECB meetings and we think the balance
will tilt this time. Our main scenario is a small refi rate cut to 0.15%.
EU's Rehn worried
about possibility of prolonged low euro zone inflation – Reuters
Is Wage Growth a Wild
Card in ECB Thinking? – WSJ
ECB policymakers have often said that the ECB shouldn’t react to single
changes in the inflation rate, but rather should see if lower inflation rates
translate into lower wages or price expectations.
PMIs Give ECB Excuse
To Stay Pat – WSJ
Recent history suggests the ECB will only move in the case of an
emergency. President Mario Draghi promised to do “whatever it takes” to save
the euro when crisis threatened to overwhelm the single currency in the summer
of 2012. But since then, the details of quite how far the ECB might be willing
to go to meet its promise have been clouded.
MACRO NUMBERS
German Jobless Falls for Fourth Month as Growth Picks Up – BB
Euro area unemployment rate at 11.9% - Eurostat
UNITED STATES
Yellen’s NAIRU – Macro Man
Janet Yellen gave a speech yesterday in which she appeared to push back
ever so slightly against the apparently hawkish message delivered a couple of
weeks ago.
OTHER
Global Central
Banking in 2014, A First Quarter Update – WSJ
Here’s a guide to the individual outlooks for central banks around the
world, compiled by our global staff of reporters and editors.
Global Beta: Flat
March on gold negativity, government bonds slip – TradingFloor
Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy: Global Beta was flat in March on
negative contribution from gold and long-term US government bonds. Equities and
emerging market bonds had a good month with the latter seeing a much needed
comeback.
The major FX pairs outside of the JPY crosses are reluctant to commit to
new directional signals ahead of key US data and the ECB
meeting on Thursday. Pattern reversal in AUDCAD looks compelling.
Best And Worst
Performers In March And Q1 – ZH
MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI
Economists React: China Manufacturing PMIs Reflect Slowing Growth – WSJ
Asia's manufacturing powers stutter, stir talk of policy support – Reuters
China Manufacturing Index Little Changed in March – BB
China factories struggle, adds to expectations for stimulus – Reuters
China PMI improves but too early to call bottom – Danske
Bank
Euro Manufacturing Stays Near 3-Year High as Recovery Persists – BB
Euro zone factory expansion eases despite price cutting – Reuters
Growth in German manufacturing sector slows in March: PMI – Reuters
U.K. Manufacturing Cools as Export Demand Falls to 10-Month Low – BB
US PMI Drops, Misses By Most In 7 Months, Weather Implicated Again – ZH
ISM Manufacturing index increased in March to 53.7 – Calculated Risk
ISM Manufacturing index increased in March to 53.7 – Calculated Risk
ISM Manufacturing Rises For Second Straight Month – Bespoke
U.S. factory activity
picks up, more gains eyed as winter fades – Reuters
FINNISH
Ekonomisti: Valtion kruununjalokivet menevät
myyntiin – YLE
Danske
Bankin pääekonomisti Pasi Kuoppamäki arvioi hallituksen kehyspäätöksen
tarkoittavan ennen kaikkea hyvää tulosta tehneiden pörssiyhtiöiden myyntiä.
Ekonomistit suhtautuvat myyntiin suopeasti, vaikka se tarkoittaakin lovea
valtion tulevien vuosien osinkotuloihin.
Osa Sveitsin pankkien suomalaisasiakkaista
haluaisi katua maksamattomia verojaan – YLE
Niin sanottu
tehokkaan katumisen malli tarkoittaa, että verovelvollinen välttyy
rikostuomiolta, jos hän ilmoittaa oma-aloitteisesti piiloon jääneet tulonsa
verottajalle. Syynä suomalaisten katumishaluun on sveitsiläispankkien
tiukentunut linja talletusten suhteen.
Näkökulma: Porvarisopimus – IL
Kokoomuksen
ja keskustan valmistelut porvarihallituksesta ovat jo pitkällä, kirjoittaa
Iltalehden uutispäällikkö Juha Ristamäki.
Kansakuntien Eurooppa korvaa romahtavan
Euroopan unionin – Olli
Immonen / US
Media vahtaa Soinia, mutta vaikenee siitä
populismista, jolla on väliä – NYT
Miten sitä katsoo – Kalle
Isokallio / IL
Vihriälä: Velkakriisiä ei ole voitettu – KL
Etlan
toimitusjohtaja Vesa Vihriälä perää euroalueelle pelisääntöjä tulevien
velkajärjestelyiden varalta.
Rehn huolestui pitkittyvästä alhaisesta
inflaatiosta - "mutta toisaalta..." – TE
Saksalaisekonomisti: Deflaatio on
tarpeellinen Etelä-Euroopassa – Verkkouutiset
Saksalaisekonomistin mukaan euroalueen
kriisimaissa tapahtuva hintojen halpeneminen on merkki käynnissä olevasta
sopeutumisprosessista.