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Monday, March 10

10th Mar - Quiet week ahead





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EUROPE
Macro-prudential: if not now when?Money Matters
Now is the time to start experimenting with macroeconomic tools in the €-area.

Recession time for Russia – the ultra wonkish versionThe Market Monetarist
Commodity exporting countries can ensure stable nominal spending growth by pegging their currency to either the price of the country’s main export good or to a basket of the export product and a foreign currency. The case of Russia is illustrative.

Banks to return 11.4 billion euro of crisis loans to ECB next weekReuters
Banks will return 11.401 billion euros ($15.78 billion) in crisis loans to the European Central Bank next week, more than six times than the amount that was expected, accelerating the drain of extra cash out of the euro zone financial system.

New York Fed study examines economic strain in euro area peripheryNY FED
New study finds that the euro area's system for settling cross-border payments between member-country banks has helped the periphery countries-specifically, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece-cope with the external financing gap that developed when the 2010 sovereign debt crisis set off widespread capital flight.

IMF economist sees deflation risk, especially in euro zone-reportReuters

French Doldrums Aren’t The ECB’s Fault WSJ
The irony is that ECB monetary policy is probably better matched for France than it is for most of the euro zone’s economies. Instead, France’s problems stem closer to home, not least from the government’s excessively big role in the economy.

A year since CyprusBruegel
So far, so good, but still too early to conclude the Cyprus programme will be successful
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1269-a-year-since-cyprus/

External and macroeconomic adjustment in the larger euro area countriesECB
Working paper no. 1647 by Elena Angelini, Michele Ca' Zorzi and Katrin Forster

The Distribution of wealth and the MPC: implications of new European dataECB
Working paper no. 1648 by Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek and Kiichi Tokuoka

UNITED STATES
  FEDERAL RESERVE
Fed’s Evans: Time to Revise Forward GuidanceWSJ
Fed’s Plosser Sees High Bar for Change in Tapering PaceBB

Grand Central: The Fed’s Slow, Tortuous Path Toward the ExitWSJ

  LABOR MARKETS
More resilient than expected despite negative impact from weather – Danske Bank
Five reasons why US jobs market is in better shape than you think – TradingFloor
More Employment Graphs – Calculated Risk
A single paragraph that explains why unemployment is still so high – WaPo

Labor Conditions – NY FED
NY Fed Unveils New Tools To Gauge Labor Market Health – WSJ

ASIA
China: Exports slowing albeit far from as dramatic as headline numbers suggestDanske Bank

Japan Lurches Toward First Current Account Deficit Since 1980WSJ
Japan is teetering toward its first annual current account deficit since 1980. That's a likely development that until recently only seemed possible in the dim and distant future.

BOJ in Wait and See Mode; Here is WhyMarc to Market
Surveys suggest the expectations for additional easing have been pushed from Q2 into Q3.  This will allow officials time to assess the impact of the retail sales tax increase and the ongoing efforts to bolster inflation. 

OTHER
New Norm for Stock Investors: Performance MattersWSJ
Stocks Are No Longer Moving in Tandem With Broad Market

USD strength needs to broaden this week to call it a rallyTradingFloor
John J. Hardy: Big trade deficits from China and Japan started the week on a nervous note and the USD is higher against some G10 smalls. But that strength needs to overtake the might of the EUR and Swissie if we’re to start calling the greenback strong again.

FX Board for March 10, 2014: Trend heat and moreTradingFloor
Euro has picked up sharply over past few days * Sterling has shifted into bearish, short-term trend

Forward guidance: no success like failure?FT
Forward guidance is central banking’s latest fad. Since the nadir of the crisis, all four of the major central banks have adopted their own version of it. But is this fashion for keeps? That depends on whether the policy works.

Who holds and prints the $100trn-worth of global debt?FT
The BIS has a fascinating section in its latest quarterly report drawing attention to the amount of debt globally, which has soared since the turn of the millennium from under $40trn to hit a whopping $100trn towards the end of 2012.

FINNISH
Saksalaista toisinajattelua? – EKP:lta vaaditaan miljardiluokan velkakirjaostojaVerkkouutiset
Saksalainen taloustutkimuslaitos vaatii EKP:ta ostamaan miljardien eurojen edestä Euroopan kriisimaiden yritys- ja valtionlainoja.

Rankat luvut teollisuudestaNordea
Tammikuu ei tuonut teollisuuteen kaivattua nousukäännettä * Tavaravienti supistui pelkästään kovan vertailukohdan vuoksi

Tapaus Liechtenstein – päästettiinkö rikkaat veronkiertäjät liian helpolla?YLE
A-studion tietojen mukaan törkeiden veropetosepäilyjen tutkiminen Liechtensteinin veronkierrosta olisi yhä mahdollista, mutta yhtään rikostutkintaa ei poliisin mukaan ole vireillä. Apulaisoikeusasiamies selvittää verottajan toimia, mutta ei ole toistaiseksi tyytyväinen saamiinsa selityksiin.

Euro syntyi uudelleenHS
Edellisten eurovaalien aikaan Eurooppa oli juuri syöksynyt finanssikriisiin. Massatyöttömyys riivaa yhä, mutta eurosta on tullut vaalien välissä vahvempi.

Stubb leimaa Väyrysen liittovaltiokeskustelun epärehelliseksiESS
”Jokainen järkevä ihminen tajuaa, ettei EU:sta tule koskaan perinteistä liittovaltiota"... kritisoi myös tukipakettikeskustelua, jota perussuomalaiset ovat pitäneet yllä. Stubb sanoo, että yhtään euroa ei ole lapioitu mihinkään. Hänen mukaansa lainoja, takuita ja vakuuksia on annettu, jotta markkinat on saatu rauhoitettua.

“Höpö”-Stubb ja älyllinen epärehellisyysSampo Terho

Vladimir Putin – Kuka hän on? Mistä hän tulee? Mitä hän aikoo?HS

HS selvitti: Näin Suomen valtion yli 80 miljardin varallisuus jakautuuHS
Valtiolla on velkaa jo 100 miljardia. Silti varojakin on yli 80 miljardia, 15 000 euroa kansalaista kohden.

Uussuomalaiset asuntomarkkinatPauli Vahtera / IL
http://blogit.iltalehti.fi/pauli-vahtera/2014/03/09/uussuomalaiset-asuntomarkkinat/

Suomen tavaraviennissä yhä vain orastava käänneRoger Wessman

Lama? Taksikyydit -7% - US

Teknologiateollisuus vastustaa Suomessa valmisteilla olevaa massaurkintaaPiksu

Juhana Vartiaisen loistoesitysSoininvaara
[video] Hyvinvointivaltion eloonjäämisoppiaVartiainen