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Thursday, November 28

28th Nov - Thx a bunch, no free lunch


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EUROPE
Germany (almost) has a new governmentMerkelnomics
While the announced measures for the domestic economy clearly reflect a socialdemocratic stamp combined with several presents, Germany’s European and Eurozone policies will not change with the new coalition.

Euro-zone prospects: Survival isn't enough The Economist
Mr Crafts asks whether saving the euro may be a Pyrrhic victory. This is not just because of the woeful performance of the single-currency club since it started in 1999 in terms of living standards (which are now for example lower in Italy) but also because the prospects for the euro zone are so gloomy.

In the loopalphaville / FT
Across Europe total sovereign holdings are now 9 per cent of assets, up from a trough of 6 per cent in September 2009.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Decoding Michael Noonan, or: Is OMT only for Italy?Brussels blog / FT
“According to Mr. Draghi, OMT is for a systemic crisis in the euro and will apply across the eurozone.”  If Noonan is accurately relating his conversation with Draghi, it seems to change the very nature of OMT.

Euro-Zone Financial System Stress Is at Pre-Crisis Levels, ECB SaysNYT
Euro zone financial sector stress has fallen to levels not seen since before the global financial crisis began in 2007, but the sector remains fragile,

  PIIGS
Presentation: Spanish economy rising from the dustDanske Bank
We see upside risk to Spanish growth in the coming years.

Gurria calls for debt reductionEkathimerini
During Athens visit, OECD secretary general says creditors must tackle problem ‘as soon as possible’

  MACRO NUMBERS
There Is Just No Escape From Draghi's Monetary Zombie Nightmare – ZH
European macro weak ahead of ECB – TradingFloor

UNITED STATES
Fed will get its inflation – time to start hedgingNordea
Although the Fed is already promising to be “irresponsible”, recent signals from the central bank suggest that it may let itself fall even further behind the curve, adopting an even easier policy stance to offset the impact of a soon-to-be announced tapering of its asset purchases * With the outlook for significantly stronger US growth we expect inflation risks to become much more of a market concern in 2014 * We see a clear risk that the Fed also in the current cycle overstays it on the easing cycle, erring on the generous side to try to lower unemployment * Implications for investors: don’t fight the Fed – it will get its inflation, and perhaps then some. It’s time to start hedging against inflation risks.

The 50y Real Growth Forecast for the US is ~2%, inflation unlikely to be above 2% - GMT

ASIA
3 key facts about Japan's deteriorating demographicsSober Look

BOJ Beat: Question Is ‘When’ Not ‘If’WSJ
An additional monetary easing by the Bank of Japan now appears to be a matter of “when,” not “if.”… Here are the various scenarios over the timing of the next BOJ move:

OTHER
The new market-risk regulationsvoxeu.org
Basel III is coming into focus. The fundamental logic of the regulatory changes seems sensible, but the devil is in the detail – empirical implementation. This column discusses a detailed quantitative study, incorporating analytical calculations, Monte Carlo simulations and results from observed data. It concludes that the Basel Committee has taken three and a half steps backwards and half a step forward. If implemented, the framework is likely to lead to less robust risk forecasts than current methodologies.

Erkki Liikanen: The economic crisis and the evolving role of central banksBIS
Speech by Mr Erkki Liikanen, Governor of the Bank of Finland and Chairman of the Highlevel Expert Group on the structure of the EU banking sector, to the Paasikivi Society, Helsinki, 25 November 2013.

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank

FINNISH
OECD:n pääsihteeri: "Sanon tämän isoilla kirjaimilla: Kreikan velkaa on leikattava"TE

Maahanmuuttokeskustelu alkaa EuroopassaHenri Myllyniemi / US

Syyskokouksen seminaari: Menestys edellyttää uusiutumistaEK
EK:n syyskokouksen seminaarissa Helsingissä katsottiin suomalaisen elinkeinoelämän tulevaisuuteen. Puhujien painokkaissa sanoissa puhalteli muutosten ja uusiutumisen tuuli.

Rikoskumppani? Valtiolle nöyryytys kartellijutussaTalSa
Helsingin käräjäoikeuden tämänpäiväinen päätös asfalttikartelliasiassa asettaa valtion (Liikenneviraston) toiminnan outoon valoon.

Skinnari Ylelle: Keskustelua Urpilaisen asemasta käydäänVerkkouutiset

Hallitus pui rakenneuudistuksiaYLE
Pääministeri Jyrki Kataisen (kok.) mukaan moni asia on vielä auki ja kokonaisuudesta sopiminen jää perjantaille.

Tämä on kiistanalaisen rakenneuudistuksen tilanneIL
Hallitukselta odotetaan perjantaina päätöksiä, joilla on pitkäkestoisia vaikutuksia palkansaajien tulevaisuuteen.

Korkman ei painaisi paniikki­nappulaaNykypäivä
Aalto-yliopiston professorin Sixten Korkmanin mielestä Suomen ei pidä ryhtyä leikkaamaan julkista velkaa äkkijyrkästi.

Eero Lehti Journalistissa: Vääristynyt kilpailu on yleisradiosaatiotaVerkkouutiset
Suomen Lehtiyhtymän myynyt kansanedustaja sanoo, että "en voi olla niin hullu, että jäisin Yleisradion tapettavaksi".

EK ehdotetusta eläkeuudistuksesta: "Tämä haiskahtaa sosialisoinnilta"YLE
Työmarkkinajärjestö SAK ja Elinkeinoelämän Keskusliitto (EK) vastustavat poliitikkojen ehdotuksia eläkejärjestelmän muuttamisesta. Kansanedustajat Tuija Brax ja Sampsa Kataja ovat ehdottaneet, että eläkeyhtiöiden määrää vähennettäisiin, jopa yhteen.