26th Nov - European dissent

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Monday: Slow newsday

Credit Guest: In the doldrums

Weekender: Links

Weekender: Weekly Support

Weekender: Best of the Week

KEVA / Merja Ailus / Keskusta special (updated)

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EUROPE

EXCLUSIVE: First translation of draft German Grand Coalition agreement – Open Europe

Rare admission from Germany that the causes of the crisis are "varied" and extend well beyond fiscal profligacy. Specifically to "competitiveness", "imbalances" and "design defects" in the EMU which led to problems in the financial markets * Any form of debt pooling is strictly ruled out

Europe's re-industrialisation: The gulf between aspiration and reality – DB Research

The EU Commission's stated aim of increasing the industrial sector's share of gross value added in the European Union to 20% by 2020 is extremely ambitious and, in our view, cannot be achieved in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, it sends out the right political signal that Europe is to be strengthened as an industrial location.

Leaked EU report on US spying: the excerpts – FT

Euro Makes It Harder for Countries to Adjust Imbalances – WSJ

Germany's central bank has weighed in on a thorny topic in Europe: whether the euro has made it harder for countries in the currency to adjust their current account imbalances.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Monitor: Euro area deflation monitor – Danske Bank

Euro area inflation is below the ECB’s 2% target and declined to 0.7% in October. The decline is due to a combination of low wage pressure and the end of the super-cycle in commodity prices. We expect inflation to remain far below the ECB’s target in 2014-15.

ECB's Weidmann Warns Central Banks Might Be Too Dominated by Fiscal Concerns – WSJ

Germany's Bundesbank Chief Says Monetary policy Runs Risk of Becoming Subject to Financial, Fiscal Dominance.

ECB Outlook: Mostly Thunder, Little Chance of Rain – Marc to Market

Barring a significant surprise on the CPI due at the end of this week or some kind of shock with the PMI, we suspect expectations for action will likely be disappointed. 

UNITED STATES

How Republicans Rig the Game – Rolling Stone

Through gerrymandering, voter suppression and legislative tricks, the GOP has managed to hold on to power while more and more Americans reject their candidates and their ideas

Analysis: What taper? Low rates for longer is key Fed theme for 2014 – Reuters

Debate over when the Federal Reserve could trim its bond purchases monopolized market talk this year, but as a new Fed chief takes charge, more participants believe the key theme to emphasize for 2014 is low rates for longer.

  MACRO NUMBERS

Housing data brightens U.S. economic growth outlook – Reuters

U.S. housing permits breach 1 million mark, home prices surge – Reuters

Building Permits in U.S. Increased in October to Five-Year High – BB

Home prices rise in September, yearly gain highest since February 2006: S&P – Reuters

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rise Most Since February 2006 – BB

Consumer Confidence Weaker Than Expected – Bespoke

Consumer Confidence Declines Again in November – dshort

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Declines to a Seven-Month Low – BB

ASIA

BOJ Beat: Minutes Show Split Among Policy Board – WSJ

Skepticism is growing among the Bank of Japan's policy board over its ambitious inflation target, with some members openly disagreeing with Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda’s optimism that the economy is heading in its intended direction.

OTHER

Global FX Strategy: The link between FX and equities – Nordea

EURUSD down: what does it take? * JPY: All about Nikkei 225 * New LTRO not fully priced in EURSEK forwards (summary here)

The shakeup at the Minneapolis Fed is a battle for the soul of macroeconomics—again – Quartz

Goldman Reveals "Top Trade" Recommendation #2 For 2014 – ZH

Go Long Of 5 Year EONIA In 5 Year Treasury Terms

Central Banks Struggle Vs Deflation/Bubbles – WSJ

Speed Traders Meet Nightmare on Elm Street With Nanex – BB

FINNISH

Ekonomisti: Euromaiden uudetkin yhteislainat päätyvät ö-mappiin – Verkkouutiset

Navigaattori: Venäjästä ei ole Suomen viennin pelastajaksi – Nordea

Venäjästä ei ole Suomen viennin pelastajaksi * Jenin heikentyminen väliaikaista * Korkokäyrä jyrkentyy * Öljyn hinta ei romahda Iran-sovusta * Yritysten kasvunäkymät uusissa tuotteissa ja markkinoissa * Sijoitusvirroista ei enää merkittävää tukea eurolle * EKP vastaa deflaatiohuoliin * Juanlaskutus antaa kilpailuetua

Paateroa tuutin täydeltä – Jyrki Virolainen

Hallituksen rakennepaketti: omaisuus voi joutua tulilinjalle – TE

Vähittäiskaupan pikaennakko: myynti kasvoi lokakuussa 1% yoy – Tilastokeskus

Lokakuun työttömyysaste 7,4% – Tilastokeskus

Tilastokeskuksen työvoimatutkimuksen mukaan työttömiä oli vuoden 2013 lokakuussa 194 000, mikä oli 11 000 enemmän kuin vuosi sitten. Työttömyysaste oli 7,4 prosenttia, kun se edellisvuoden lokakuussa oli 6,9 prosenttia. Työllisiä oli 41 000 vähemmän kuin edellisen vuoden lokakuussa.