17th Oct - US Deal is a pause, not a solution

US: Debt deal done – or the need for one moved to February. Nice that the thing was solved for now, but not nice that the circus will be coming back to town so soon after the last show. Because it will be just the same in February. There are four Fed presidents speaking today, so the taper-guessing is back in vogue. January seen the earliest, but if the political mess continues and is not solved by that time, it might be that the Fed will simply decide to postpone the tapering again.

Dagong downgrades US from A to A-, says “A debt crisis evolves into a political crisis, which in turn exacerbates the debt crisis…Recurrence of the conflict over debt ceiling once again reveals the US superstructure’s incapacity to solve national debt crisis”

Bloomberg: The focus now shifts to a new series of deadlines -- the first for budget negotiations with a Dec. 13 target -- that set up more rounds of political combat over taxes and spending on programs including Social Security and Medicare. The deal funds the government at Republican-backed spending levels through Jan. 15, 2014, and suspends the debt limit through Feb. 7.

Europe: ECB’s meeting will discuss the asset quality review and the stress tests. We were promised a schedule and more information “in second half of October”, so perhaps we will hear something soon.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Wednesday: Deal in US?

Wednesday: Still no US-deal, Europe's non-banking union.

Tuesday: Still no deal, Europe darkens

Tuesday: Almost a deal, almost the deadline

Monday: Another Shutdown Day

Random Charts / Käppyrää

Weekender: Weekly Support

Best of the Week

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EUROPE

Let the Eurosceptics speak – Presseurop

Apparently, EU politicians not only want people to think about the EU, they also want to decide what they think. They should be more open to debate with Eurosceptics in all layers of the population.

Euro Capitals Tighten Fiscal Leash as EU Starts Austerity – BB

In Madrid, the government is paring spending on roads and rails. In Rome, state property is to be sold off. In The Hague, lawmakers agreed to the second set of extraordinary cuts in two years. Even with the 17-nation euro area projecting economic expansion next year for the first time since 2011, policy makers are keeping a fiscal leash on growth by maintaining austerity policies born in the fight to save the euro.

Europe's debt crisis credibility hangs on thin Irish thread – The Telegraph

Whether Ireland or any other EMU victim state can claw its way back to viability depends on the actions of the ECB

Who said what on the euro? – Francesco Papadia / Money Matters

I commented the post.

UNITED STATES

The T-Bill Market Is Beginning To Brace For The "Hard" March Debt Ceiling – ZH

Flash Comment - US Congress passes debt deal – Danske Bank

The deal will reopen the government today and increase the debt ceiling. It is, however, only a temporary relief, as the bill will fund the government until 15 January and raise the debt ceiling until

7 February. Hence, we can look forward to another round of negotiations early next year.

Long live the great US Congress – Our take on the market impact – Nordea
The damage has been done, political wrangling will continue.

Above the noise: Done deal, can we please move on now? – TradingFloor

U.S. Congress ends default threat, Obama signs debt bill – Reuters

The U.S. Congress on Wednesday approved an 11th-hour deal to end a partial government shutdown and pull the world's biggest economy back from the brink of a historic debt default that could have threatened financial calamity.

Congress Vote Ends Impasse to Be Revisited in January – BB

The focus now shifts to a new series of deadlines -- the first for budget negotiations with a Dec. 13 target -- that set up more rounds of political combat over taxes and spending on programs including Social Security and Medicare. The deal funds the government at Republican-backed spending levels through Jan. 15, 2014, and suspends the debt limit through Feb. 7.

The biggest threat to the economy? Washington – Reuters

The governance-by-crisis model in Washington may prompt businesses to sit on their cash rather than investing in growth.

China's Dagong Downgrades US To A- From A – ZH

China’s Dagong Takes Aim at U.S. – WSJ

In a lengthy statement, Dagong – which cut the U.S. rating to A-minus from A, and maintained a negative outlook – described the partial government shutdown as “an inevitable outcome” of the U.S.’s long-term failure to pay its excessive debts, and a substantial deterioration in its solvency.

 OTHER
This simple trading strategy points to rationale for currency wars – Sober Look

Select two countries with the worst performing currencies (against USD) over the past 4 months and go long equity indices of those two countries. Now select the two best performing currencies and short the indices of those countries (to the extent that's possible). Repeat the exercise once a month.

Hardy: What next for the US dollar? – TradingFloor

FINNISH

Eespäin, eespäin tiellä taistojen – Pauli Vahtera / Libera

Harmaan talouden määrästä iso riita – HS

Professori Matti Virén tyrmää harmaan talouden asiantuntijaksi profiloituneen Markku Hirvosen laskelmat.

USA:lle luottoluokituksen alennus – Juhani Huopainen