Starting last Monday, I am posting only once (or twice) a day. I will also skip
the “regular” link section, but you can access them from my Links-page. I want
to have more time to read what I link to – and write as well.
Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
Round Two of Talks
Grand Coalition Looks Increasingly Likely – Spiegel
Angela Merkel's
conservatives are holding their second round of preliminary coalition talks
with the Social Democrats Monday and there's speculation that the parties could
reach a deal sooner than expected. A government could be formed by
mid-November.
Towards a German
government: Parties talk about negotiations – DB
Research
This is the crucial week for talks between the major parties CDU/CSU,
SPD and the Greens to decide the shape of the next coalition government. We
expect the final decisions to be taken by the parties over the coming weekend.
François Hollande’s
cold shower – The
World / FT
French Politics and
Economics – Marc
to Market
A second round of a local election in France (Brignoles) resulted in a
victory by Le Pen's National Front… The latest Ifop polls shows Le Pen ahead in
the national polls, with 24% support.
The UMP has 22% support and the Socialists 19%
House prices hit a
record – or do they? – Money
Supply / FT
An unusable
backstop: 10 reasons why the ESM might never take a stake in a bank – Brussels
blog / FT
ECB’s Draghi:
Knowing Too Much About Our Big Banks Could Set Off A Panic – Testosterone
Pit
European regulators are desperate. The only thing known about the holes
in bank balance sheets stuffed with decomposing assets is that they’re deep. No
one knows how deep. No one is allowed to know – not until Eurocrats decide who
will pay for bailing out these banks. How do we know? ECB President Mario
Draghi said that.
Wealth-taxing, redux – alphaville
/ FT
A box on “one-off capital levies” — or wealth taxes — burrowed away on
page 49 of the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor.
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
The artificial fuel
for growth cannot last forever – The
A-list / FT
Unhelpful politics and policy responses likely to make worse the
disconnect between artificially-bolstered asset markets and the sluggish
fundamentals of the real economy.
SHUTDOWN / DEBT
CEILING
Default Risk - You
Can Run But You Can't Hide – ZH
Oct/Nov Bills are improving, but Feb 2014 Bills are now slamming higher
in yield +5bps to 9bps for now
The House GOP’s
shutdown deal is a big improvement – WaPo
This number is the
reason Republicans will end the shutdown – WaPo
74 percent of Americans disapprove of how the Republicans are handling
the budget negotiations. That's three-out-of-four Americans.
House Republicans are
falling for the sunk cost fallacy – WaPo
CDS Q&A JIC – alphaville /
FT
OTHER
Yield Forecast Update – Nordea
(pdf)
Long-end EUR rates to move higher on stronger recovery
Global FX Strategy:
The debt ceiling and the dollar – Nordea
(pdf)
Find our take on the dollar reaction to an expected upcoming debt
ceiling deal, alongside updated stories on GBP, SEK, NOK and market quant in
this week's edition of Global FX Strategy.
FX Forecast Update:
October - Scandi upside limited in the near term – Danske
Bank (pdf)
EM currencies: are
the “fragile five” really that fragile? – beyondbrics
/ FT
Nomura’s number-crunching is welcome. It is interesting that a
ballooning trade deficit matters more than the size of the deficit. A hike in
real interest rates is more likely to herald a crisis than a diminishing chest
of forex reserves, if we believe the research. It also seems east Asia has
learnt from its 1997/98 crisis, as the World Bank recently concluded.
Global liquidity:
selected indicators – BIS (pdf)
Focusing on flow measures, global growth in international bank credit
remains virtually zero, with declines in aggregate interbank credit offsetting
positive growth in credit to non-banks…In turn, monetary indicators in advanced
economies imply sustained policy accommodation, even though term premia (the
extra compensation for bearing a bond’s duration risk) and, with them, long-term
yields have risen from their earlier lows.
BCA Research Launches
New Application: BCA Analytics – BCA
Introducing the Saxo
Bank FX Carry Trade – TradingFloor
Saxo Bank FX Carry
Trade Portfolios (week 42) – TradingFloor
We introduce the Saxo Bank Carry Trade model, which can accommodate both
EUR- and USD-denominated accounts and allows the investor to choose between a
G-10 portfolio or a broader portfolio of 16 currencies.
Fama, Hansen, and Shiller – Economist’s
View
Robert Shiller: ‘When I look around I see a lot
of foolishness, and I can’t believe it’s not important economically’ – WaPo
FINNISH
Kroatian
vientisektori kiittää – Juhani
Huopainen
Tutkimus:
Eliitti hallitsee eurokriisin julkisuutta – PS
Soini
povaa suurta muutosta europolitiikkaan: ”voimasuhteet tulevat muuttumaan
rajusti” – PS
Katainen
FT:ssä: "Olemme hyvin pragmaattisia - on oltava valmis auttamaan
muita" – Verkkouutiset
Suomen pääministerin Jyrki Kataisen (kok.)
mukaan Suomi on valmis tukemaan uusia euroalueen tukipaketteja Kreikalle ja
Portugalille, jos tarve vaatii.
Soini: Kataiselle voi kelvata vähempikin kuin
komission puheenjohtajuus – HS
Kumpula-Natri
näkee pääministerin lausunnoissa komissaaripeliä
Teollisuuden
liikevaihto supistui touko-heinäk. yli 4%y-o-y – Tilastokeskus
Elämää
ja entropiaa – Esko
Seppänen
Tamminiemen
pesänselvittäjät – Kemppinen
Suomeen
6,54 miljardin euron investoinnit - Katainen katsoo Etelä-Eurooppaan – Professorin
ajatuksia