Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News roundup – Between The
Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Stocks Break From Herd – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Drifting Lower Ahead of Fed
Minutes – WSJ
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Monday is a sleepy day
for economic news, but don't let that fool you. The market will be closely
watching the 10-year treasury yield, Germany's DAX index, and USDJPY for clues about the
macro outlook in 2013's second half.
Market Preview: Light macro calendar ahead – TradingFloor
European markets are
expected to open mostly lower Monday. With little on the global macro calendar
today, traders will await the US FOMC minutes and manufacturing and services
PMIs across Europe due later in the week for strong cues.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
A relatively
quiet day today. In the week ahead the most important data releases are flash
manufacturing PMIs. It will be interesting to see if European PMIs continue to
improve and whether China is already bottoming out. In the US the main focus
will be the release of Fed minutes from the July meeting on Wednesday and the
Jackson Hole conference for central bankers starting on the same day.
US 10-year bond
yields reach new 2-year high * US consumer confidence surprisingly falls on
Friday * Fed´s Fisher would like tapering to have started already * Chinese
home prices on the rise * UK growth forecast revised higher * It´s that time of
the year again – Jackson Hole * FOMC minutes and Euro zone PMIs on this week´s
calendar * Light issuance continues
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Ostopäälliköitä
kaikki tyynni * Venäjä: Hiipuu, hiipuu * USA:n kuluttajien luottamus putosi
yllättäen
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
Pitkien korkojen ero USA:n ja euroalueen
välillä on kasvanut merkittäväksi ja se on osaltaan nostanut eurooppalaisten
osakkeiden mielenkiintoa. Pitkien korkojen nousu painoi edellisviikolla osakemarkkinoita.
Tällä viikolla odotetaan keskiviikkona julkaistavia FED:n kokousmuistioita. Loppuviikosta
painavaa dataa euroalueelta. Osakefutuurit nollassa (kts. 20), indikoiden
tasaista avausta OMX HEX:iin.
EUROPE
Latest Greek Corruption Scandal Costs New
Privatization Agency Head His Job – ZH
Scandi markets ahead – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Issuance in focus and
growth outlook improving
UNITED STATES
Summers-led Fed might raise rates faster than
Yellen – Reuters
Barring another financial
crisis or slide back into recession, the next head of the Federal Reserve is
likely to oversee a gradual normalization of monetary policy.
Higher prices sap foreign interest in U.S. real
estate – Reuters
Foreign investors, who
rapaciously scooped up U.S. real estate during the 2007-2009 recession,
are backing away from the same markets they so eagerly jumped into a few years
ago.
The investment problem – Coppola
Comment
Since the 2008
financial crisis, business investment has fallen considerably. This chart from
ONS shows how gross fixed capital formation collapsed in 2007-8 and has
remained flat ever since:
Mortgage refinance boom ending – Sober Look
This slowdown is
negatively impacting profitability in the banking sector and even generating
layoffs. Moreover, economists are forecasting refinancing activity to shrink
further in the next few quarters. The refi gravy train is coming to a stop.
One of the reasons for
the slow US recovery has been weaker than usual government spending. The weakness
started with fiscal consolidation at the state and local level, driven by sharp
declines in tax revenues. The negative impact on the economy is now more
pronounced at the federal level. I
ASIA
China's Rising Home Prices Unstoppable – Forbes
OTHER
A Few Thoughts to Start the New Week – Marc
to Market
Four primary drivers
shaping the investment climate:
speculation about Fed tapering, stabilization of the Chinese economy,
the reflation story in Europe and renewed capital outflows from Japan. While near-term risks to this scenario are
minimal, we are concerned that next month is a different story. Specifically, we think there are substantial
risks that the market will be disappointed by the FOMC.
While you were busy… - Nordea
(pdf)
In this short
presentation, we’ve tried to highlight some of the major economic and financial
market events that has happened over the past few weeks.
FX Comment: the holes – Nordea
Jackson Hole Symposium…
“taper” is still the major explanation to pretty much anything… The Euro zone
NOT out of the woods…but out of recession… Rates on hold until mid 2016? You
wish, Mr Carney…. As China bad news have gone mainstream, some positive
signs from higher frequency data emerge… Other than that… boring week on the
data ahead
A classic late-cycle rotation – Humble
Student
In the last week or
two, the data out of China has been more positive (though not everyone
believes the official statistics) and commodity prices appear to have bottomed
and they are starting to rally. Meanwhile, the equity uptrend remains intact.
These are the classic signs of a late cycle rotation into deep cyclical sectors
of the market.
Will Robots Take All
Our Blue-Collar Jobs? – View
/ BB
FINNISH
Kumpi
pitäisi pelastaa, rahaliitto vai sen jäsenet? – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjillä on kolme keinoa lopettaa
kriisi. Kaksi pelastaisi rahaliiton ja euron mutta uhraisi jäsenmaiden
itsenäisyyden, kolmas uhraisi euron mutta pelastaisi jäsenmaiden itsenäisyyden.
Näin tiivistää tuore tutkimus, jonka mukaan vaikeiden valintojen väistely
pitkittää ja pahentaa kriisiä.
Kysely:
Nämä rakenneuudistukset sopivat suomalaisille – YLE
Palkkoihin enintään puolen prosentin korotus:
varovainen kyllä. Opintotuen leikkaus: selkeä ei. Näin vastasivat suomalaiset,
kun Yle kysyi, mitkä julkisuudessa olleet rakenneuudistusehdotukset suomalaiset
olisivat valmiita hyväksymään.
Suvi-Anne
Siimes: Eläkeuudistus on kuin makkarantekoa – TE
Pääkirjoitus:
Suuret sanat jarruttavat muutosta – HS
Toivottavasti pian voidaan siirtyä
järjestelmään, jossa hallitusohjelma näyttää selvän suunnan eikä vaalilupausten
rikkominen kuulosta hyveeltä.
Vieraskynä:
Suurten ikäluokkien kato ei mullistakaan työelämää – HS
Jaakko Kiander: Vuosina 1945–1949 syntyneet
ovat jo pääosin eläkkeellä, mutta pelättyä työvoimapulaa ei ole syntynyt.
Eurovaaliehdokkaana
OIli Rehnin pitää jättää komissio – Verkkouutiset
Jos EU-komissaari Olli Rehn ryhtyy
eurovaaliehdokkaaksi, Suomi tarvitsee uuden "pätkäkomissaarin" ehkä
jo pian.
Työministeri
lupaili veroporkkanaa, jos palkkaratkaisu on maltillinen – MTV3
Työministeri Lauri Ihalainen (sd) toivoo
maltillista palkkaratkaisua ja lupailee valtion tulevan vastaan esimerkiksi
verotuksessa ja väylämaksuissa.
FK:n
Kauppi: Velkaantuminen uhkaa lähteä käsistä – Verkkouutiset