The
best articles from the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here. This blog turned two
years old last week.
Overall, a dull week. Europe showed terrible monetary data, while optimism is on the rise according to Markit PMI. The most important development has been the sudden uncertainty over who gets nominated as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Up next: the usual weekender-posts, plus link
collections on Summers vs. Yellen-debate and the SAC.
EUROPE
We Germans don't want
a German Europe – The Guardian
Wolfgang Schäuble: Germany has no taste for
shaping others in its image – but we want a European Union that can compete
Is Germany
Repeating American Errors at Bretton Woods? – View / BB
Lippmann, if he were
alive, would no doubt warn that the seemingly endless austerity being imposed
on southern Europe will ultimately lead to a political backlash
that will make it unsustainable. Germany will soon have to choose: a Marshall Plan for
the south, or an economic and political breakdown of the euro zone.
Controlled
dismantlement of the Eurozone: A proposal for a New European Monetary System
and a new role for the European Central Bank – NBP (pdf)
National Bank of Poland Working papers by Stefan Kawalec, Ernest
Pytlarczyk
Press release Article IV Consultation on Euro
Area Policies – IMF
Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV
Consultation – IMF (pdf)
Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues Paper – IMF (pdf)
DATA
Results of the Q2 / July 2013 euro area bank
lending survey – ECB
Monetary developments in the euro area June
2013 – ECB (pdf)
European Banks Face Capital Gap With Focus on
Leverage – BB
Europe’s biggest banks, which more than doubled their
highest-quality capital to $1 trillion since 2007 to meet tougher rules, may
have further to go as regulators scrutinize how lenders judge the riskiness of
their assets.
Eurozone PMI offers tantalising glimpse of
growth – TradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: The
Eurozone could be on the brink of, wait for it, a return to growth. The Markit
July Flash Purchasing Manager Indices offer a tantalizing glimpse of a prospect
that we've not seen in a long time.
Pretty Much
Improvement – Nordea
Today’s Euro-zone PMI data and the ECB lending survey provided fresh
evidence the area is making good progress in finally defeating recession.
Terrible Eurozone loan data will keep ECB
dovish – TradingFloor
Terrible Eurozone
monetary data will consign to the dustbin any thoughts that next week's
European Central Bank meeting might be hawkish. But don't expect concrete
dovish measures either - Germany's looming elections will legislate against
that.
ECB
Redesigning the ECB with regional rather than
national central banks – voxeu.org
Eurozone national
central banks that take a national perspective risk politicising the ECB’s monetary
policy. This column argues that this is a significant risk that should be
overcome with a fundamental overhaul of the Eurosystem. A central element would
be to take the ‘national’ out of the EZ’s national central banks. Just as US
regional Fed banks encompass more than one US state, EZ ‘national’ central banks area of
responsibility should be redrawn along economic geography lines rather than
nation lines. An example of such a proposal is provided.
The effectiveness of the non-standard policy
measures during the financial crises: the experiences of the Fed and the ECB – ECB (pdf)
ECB Working papers by
Seth Carpenter, Selva Demiralp, Jens Eisenschmidt
Monetary Developments
June
– ECB (pdf)
ECB Says Bank Loans to Private Sector Shrink
Most on Record – BB
Loans to the private
sector dropped 1.6 percent from a year earlier. That’s the 14th monthly decline
and the biggest since the start of the single currency in 1999.
How Spain Just
Made Mario Draghi's Nightmare Worse – ZH
ECB preview: More
clarity on forward guidance? – Nordea
PIIGS
Hallelujah,
Spain is recovering – The Telegraph
Spanish Unemployment Falls as Rajoy Sees Growth Return – BB
ASIA
China
risks deflation trap as true GDP crumbles – The Telegraph
Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard: China is sliding towards a deflation trap and may be in outright recession
already if data are measured accurately, with serious knock-on risks for the
global economy.
China’s
interest rate liberalisation: more complicated than it looks? – alphaville / FT
In themselves, the
changes announced on Friday are expected to have very limited effects. Or… will they?
Japan’s
lessons for China – alphaville / FT
While timing is
difficult to predict, it does seem very hard to argue that the economic model
can continue along with the social, political and legal status quo, all while
maintaining recent high rates of growth.
The Chinese Economy: A short
guide to its Past, Present and Future – Place du Luxembourg
Is This The End of China's Economic Miracle? – Econmatters
By George Friedman at
Stratfor Global Intelligence
HSBC Flash China
Manufacturing PMI – Markit (pdf)
OTHER
Financial Forecast
Update July 2013 – Nordea (pdf)
…or read the
summary.
Are hedge funds really for
suckers? Yeah, kinda. – Wonkblog / WP
Does Dodd-Frank work? We asked 16 experts to
find out – Wonkblog / WP
Sunday is the third
anniversary of the Dodd-Frank Act. To get a sense of how implementation has
been going, I asked 16 people at the forefront of the debate to answer two
questions: What has gone better than you had expected? And
what has gone worse?
SEC Warns: Prepare For Repo Defaults – ZH
In recent weeks,
between The Fed, Basel III, and the FDIC, regulators have signalled the
possible intent to change risk, netting, and capital rules that could have
dramatic implications on the repo markets and now, it seems, the SEC has begun
to recognize just how big a concern that could be.
OFF-TOPIC
Fear and Loathing in
Modern Media – brain pickings
Hunter S. Thompson on Journalism, Politics, and the Subjective
Richard Feynman on Morality and the Zen of
Science – brain pickings
Plus His Prose Poem
for the Glory of Evolution
FINNISH
Rahoitusneuvos Kari Nars
osaa mainiosti poliitikkojen kielen – Tyhmyri
Vartiainen pohjustaa
demariäänestäjiä sisäiseen devalvaatioon ja köyhtymiseen – Tyhmyri
Voisin olla
vahingoniloinen ellei kyseessä olisi niin vakava asia
Espanjaa pukkaa – Juhani
Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro
Sampo Terho:
Hallituspuolueilla liittovaltiosta eri puheet EU:n parlamentissa ja Suomessa – HS
Elinkeinoelämän edut, euro ja yrityskentän
jakaantuminen – ulkoisesta devalvaatiosta hyötyisivät eniten
kotimarkkinayritykset
– Tyhmyri
Euroeron malli on jo esitelty – kiitos komission,
EKP:n ja Saksan – Tyhmyri
Lomarahat – Hannu
Visti
Talouspolitiikan paradigma muuttumassa? – Soininvaara