Previously on MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
Commissioners in trouble, UK challenged over
migrants’ benefits, and should the EU get rid of its small change?
Many European leaders have recently suggested that the Continent is on
the road to economic recovery. EU Commissioner Günther Oettinger, however, says
the bloc is in a "truly abysmal state" and that France, in particular,
needs reform.
Austerity About-Face:
German Government to Gamble on Stimulus – Spiegel
With the euro crisis refusing to relent, the German government is
backing away from its austerity mandates and planning to spend billions to
stimulate ailing economies in Southern European. But can the program succeed?
Why some countries
still want to join the euro – The
Economist
Polls suggest most Latvians want to keep the lat. But the prime minister
says Latvians already agreed to the single currency when they voted in a
referendum to join the EU in 2004. Moreover, he has been re-elected twice on a
policy of joining the euro.
Cyprus has frozen billions
of euros of assets held by three former senior executives of Laiki (Popular)
Bank, signalling a protracted legal battle over who was to blame for the collapse
in March of the island’s second-largest lender.
Greece: IMF Completes Third Review Under Extended Fund
Facility Arrangement, Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation – IMF
Youth unemployment
A portrait of
European policy failure – The
Telegraph
Another month, another 95,000 people lost their jobs in the eurozone.
ECB
European monetary
policy: The negative option – The
Economist
Would charging banks that leave funds at the central bank help or hurt?
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi often seems besieged in his
Frankfurt tower, surrounded by fellow bankers and a populace
that strongly disapprove of his risky policies. Even Germany's top court will
pass judgment on them in an upcoming case.
Undeterred by forecast rain, thousands of “Blockupy” protesters are
flooding Frankfurt this weekend to oppose tough austerity measures
affecting euro-zone countries.
UNITED STATES
Macro control, micro
problems – The
Economist
Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: to put the economy back on its feet it
is keeping interest rates at zero and buying bonds; but in doing so, it
worries, it is egging on dangerous risk-taking. Cue “macroprudential” policy.
Fed Not Constrained
Amid Tame Inflation – WSJ
Inflation is getting tamer, a development that will surely fuel the
debate over the Federal Reserve's bond-buying.
Too-big-to-fail
Q&A. Get the facts. – Sober Look
Chicago-Area Manufacturers See Strong Growth – WSJ
Chicago PMI Surges – Bespoke
Chicago PMI Soars To Highest
Since March 2012 Crashing Expectations – ZH
Consumer Sentiment at Highest Level Since 2007 – WSJ
Consumers Most Confident Since 2007 – ZH
May Consumer Sentiment increases to 84.5, Chicago PMI increases to 58.7 –
Calculated
Risk
How Does Income Growth Compare to Other Recoveries? – WSJ
Personal Income declined slightly in April, Spending declined 0.2% - Calculated
Risk
April Income Lower Than Expected -> Weaker Spending; Savings Rate At
Unsustainable Lows – ZH
PCE core inflation the lowest on record – Sober
Look
April Was A Rough Month For Spending & Income – The
Capital Spectator
Real spending up 0.1 percent in April, lower than expected – Handelsbanken
Analysis: Consumers May Turn Frugal but Won’t Hunker Down – WSJ
ASIA
Volatile bond yields may spell trouble for Abenomics
One of the questions I have been asked most frequently over the past
couple of years is: what happens if, and when, bond yields rise?
Japanese Bond Yields
Spike!! Successful Abenomics or the Beginning of the End? – Turnkey
Analyst
OTHER
FX Comment: The Tide – Nordea
It's all about USD (real) yields now, and a week full of events ahead.
The balance of risks are for the USD downside. Even EMs can find some
ground.
My verdict on NGDP
Targets – mainly
macro
Book Bits | 6.1.13 – The
Capital Spectator
Is the OECD’s promise
of better times ahead a credible one? – Bruegel
This week the OECD released its latest biannual Economic Outlook. The
world GDP growth forecast for 2013 has been revised down from 3.4 percent in
June 2012 to 3.1 percent. The group of 34 OECD countries is also expected now
to grow slower than projected 6 months ago—from 1.4 to 1.2 percent. But, the
OECD projects that the second half of 2013 will see a modest revival of growth
and the outlook for 2014 is decidedly better.
Global Perspectives May 2013: Reflation in the
Balance – PIMCO
Four of the world’s
major central banks are now “all in” when it comes to ballooning their balance
sheets in correlated, if not coordinated, efforts to achieve escape velocity in
their economies. In accounting for the impact of quantitative easing on two key
balance sheets, we are able to interpret, monitor and calibrate the programs
currently in place. This in turn can help us prepare portfolios if – or when –
sentiments and inflation expectations shift.
FINNISH
Luottolama vesittää velkojen inflatoinnin – Henri
Myllyniemi / Piksu
Björn Wahlroos: eurokriisistä selviäminen
edellyttää dramaattista muutosta rahapolitiikassa – tyhmyri
Nokian Siilasmaa: Suomi on Kreikan tiellä – TalSa
Nokian hallituksen puheenjohtajan Risto
Siilasmaan mukaan Suomi on matkalla kohti samaa tilannetta, jossa Kreikka on
nyt.
Katainen esitteli ratkaisua yritysten
lainarahapulmaan – TalSa
Pääministeri Jyrki Katainen esitteli
ratkaisuaan niille pk-yrityksille, jotka kärsivät pankkilainoituksen
puutteesta.
Siilasmaan mukaan Suomi on Kreikan tiellä ja
Katainen puhuu rahoitusongelmista ymmärtämättä asiasta yhtään mitään – tyhmyri
Erityisesti oikeistolaisten kannattaisi olla
huolestuneita työttömyydestä – työttömyys on taloudelle todella vahingollista
ja kasvattaa julkista sektoria sekä lisää veroja – tyhmyri
Timo Soinilla on asiaa Hesarin etusivun
verran – Jyrki
Virolainen
Kun hulluus saa vallan – Henri
Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro
Rahalaitosten tase (lainat ja talletukset) ja
korot – Suomen
Pankki
Yritysten
lainakannan vuosikasvussa käänne nopeamman kasvun suuntaan