Roundups &
Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Market Mania Tapered In Quiet Overnight Session – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Midday Express (EU daily
news) – Europa
Daily press summary – Open
Europe
Member states and MEPs strike compromise on
long-term EU budget; Commission tables historic cut to the EU’s annual budget
for 2014
Morning MoneyBeat: Trading Volume Offers Bearish Signal – WSJ
Morning Bond Update – TradingFloor
Dollar Mostly Softer, but still Muted Reaction to Developments – Marc
to Market
EUROPE
Eurocrisis Conversation with Barry Eichengreen – Re-define
None of the underlying
problems had or have been solved; even before the fiasco surrounding Cyprus it was clear that the crisis would to be
back. There had been no real
re-balancing within Europe, no progress on banking union, and no
agreement on limited fiscal union. So, I do not think anything has been solved,
which renders me more pessimistic with the passage of time. - See more at:
Destruction of French Manufacturing Placed
Squarely on Euro – Mish’s
Euro zone bias strikes again – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Ask an economist a
question about the euro zone, and the answer will as much depend on the
location of their head office as any analysis of the data.
BANKING
UNION SUMMIT
One small step… – MacroScope
/ Reuters
EU finance ministers
succeeded last night where they failed last Friday and reached agreement on how
to share the costs of future bank failures, with shareholders, bondholders and
depositors holding more than 100,000 euros all in the firing line in a bid to
keep taxpayers off the hook.
Europe Make
Cyprus
"Bail-In" Regime Continental Template – ZH
Bank Bailout Deal Struck in EU Talks Decrees
Writedowns – BB
EU finance chiefs
struck an agreement on how to handle failing banks, a step they said would
bolster investor confidence and help overcome the euro- area financial crisis.
Europe strikes deal to push cost of bank
failure on investors – Reuters
The EU agreed on
Thursday to force investors and wealthy savers to share the costs of future
bank failures, moving closer to drawing a line under years of taxpayer-funded
bailouts that have prompted public outrage.
ECB
ECB Preview: The exit remains distant – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Euro area data have
generally improved since the last Governing Council meeting so further easing
is not on the agenda at the moment. Draghi will instead try to talk rates down.
It seems almost certain that he will say that ‘the exit remains distant’.
Decline in euro area's excess reserves not an
indication of improved lending
– Sober
Look
The decline in euro
area banks' excess reserves has been quite spectacular. Excess reserve levels
are back to 2011 levels. Some are attributing this to banks "no longer
hoarding cash" and therefore lending. That's nonsense.
MACRO
NUMBERS
European Economic
Confidence Improves More Than Forecast – BB
Confidence in economy
reaches 13-month high in euro area – TradingFloor
Economic sentiment
improves markedly in both the euro area and the EU – Europa
Business Climate
Indicator increases in June – Europa
Press release:
Monetary developments in the euro area – ECB (pdf)
Euro zone loan
contraction turns up heat on ECB – Reuters
German Unemployment
Unexpectedly Drops in Recovery Sign – BB
German jobless falls
underscoring strong domestic economy – Reuters
UNITED STATES
Even before last
week’s FOMC meeting and the subsequent spike in long-term rates, the US refinancing wave was already receding, the
result of both the higher rates and the limited pool of eligible borrowers.
House Prices and Mortgage Rates – Calculated
Risk
Other factors (like a
stronger economy) have a bigger impact on house prices than changes in mortgage
rates.
ASIA
Did China’s Central Bank Blink? – WSJ
Either China’s central bank blinked in the face of a
painful liquidity crunch and a stock market swoon - or it figured it had made
its point. So which one was it?
What’s really
responsible for higher US yields? Falling demand from domestic and
western investors? Or Chinese and Japanese official flows?
Stefan Wagstyl,
emerging markets editor and editor of the FT beyondbrics blog, and Simon
Rabinovitch, Shanghai correspondent, join Shawn Donnan to look at
the state of the Chinese economy.
FINNISH
Luottamusindikaattorit pysyivät heikkoina
kesäkuussa – EK
Kuluttajien luottamus talouteen vahvistui
hieman kesäkuussa – Tilastokeskus
EURIBOR
Asiantuntijat: Euriborin loppu ei hetkauta
asuntovelallista – YLE
Uutistoimisto
Reutersin mukaan suomalaisten asuntolainojen yleinen viitekorko euribor aiotaan
korvata uudella korolla. Talousasiantuntijoiden mukaan muutos ei näy tavallisen
asuntovelallisen elämässä. Euriboriin kohdistuu manipulointiepäilyksiä.
Reuters: Euribor-korolle pohditaan korvaajaa – YLE
Euriborin
korvaaja voisi olla korko, joka arvioiden lisäksi perustuisi toteutuneeseen
pankkien väliseen lainanantoon, uutistoimisto Reuters kirjoittaa. Euriborin
maine on heikentynyt, sillä siihen on liitetty manipulointiepäilyjä.
"Euriborin uudistus voisi heiluttaa
lainakorkoja" –
TalSa
Yhdeksän
kuukautta, ja euribor saattaa olla historiaa, uutistoimisto Reutersin lähde
kertoi. Tilalle tulisi korko, joka perustuisi pankkien väliseen toteutuneeseen
lainanantoon. Koron määrittelystä vastaavan EBF:n mukaan euribor ei ole
katoamassa. Mutta mitä uudistus tarkoittaisi asuntovelalliselle?
Euriborin laskutapaa voidaan muuttaa – HS
Suomalaisten
asuntolainojen viitekorkona yleisesti käytetyn euriborin laskutapaa voidaan
tulevaisuudessa muuttaa, kertovat asiasta perillä olevat lähteet Helsingin
Sanomille. Nykyisin euribor määritellään sen perusteella, millä korolla pankit
arvioivat lainaavansa toisilleen varoja vakuudettomasti euroalueella.
PANKKIUNIONI
EU:n valtiovarainministerit sopivat
sijoittajien vastuun lisäämisestä pankkikriiseissä – HS
Tavoitteena
on, että lasku lankeaa tulevaisuudessa veronmaksajien sijaan ensisijaisesti
pankkien omistajille, velkasijoittajille ja suurtallettajille.
Urpilainen tyytyväinen pankkikriisien
ratkaisumallista – HS
"Nyt
sijoittajavastuu on se pääperiaate, jolla pankkikriisejä hoidetaan
jatkossa", Urpilainen sanoi toimittajille Brysselissä torstaina.