Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: Volumeless Rally In Stocks; Bonds Still Tapering – ZH
EUROPE
European finance
ministers will meet (on Wednesday) ahead of the Summit that begins Thursday
afternoon in order to see if more progress can be made on the banking union.
Talks broke down at the end of last week, without resolution. There are four
dimensions to the issue…
Swiss banks from a financial stability
perspective – BIS (pdf)
Mr Jean-Pierre
Danthine, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at
the media news conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 20 June 2013.
Challenging economic and financial conditions
for the Swiss banking sector –
BIS (pdf)
Mr Thomas Jordan,
Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the media news
conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 20 June 2013.
A snapshot of the financial situation in
Switzerland – BIS (pdf)
Mr Fritz Zurbrügg,
Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the media news
conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 20 June 2013.
UNITED STATES
Whose low rates are these? – Free
exchange / The Economist
My view is that
central banks have been a significant contributor to low rates globally, but
mostly through policies designed to engineer persistent demand shortfalls, like
opportunistic disinflation in the rich world and undervalued currencies in the
emerging world. QE has on net been a force for higher rates. I would be very
surprised to see sustained rate increases alongside QE withdrawal and falling
inflation expectations. Sustained higher rates are ultimately a sign of healthy
demand, and America still seems to be a long way away from that.
Which came first, rising real rates or taper
fear? – alphaville
/ FT
The Fed has rumbled
the markets with QE exit/taper talk. That, at least, is the standard explanation
with regards to the EM sell-off and other market turbulence. But what if all
this wasn’t started by the Fed, as much as the sudden rise in real rates in the
last few months?
The mismatch – Buttonwood
/ The Economist
Although the economy
has been weak, American corporate profits are high relative to GDP. Indeed the
collapse in 2008 and 2009 was a brief blip in what looks like a long-term
upward trend…. But one doesn't need to be a Marxist to perceive that the share
of capital might be cyclical; surely high returns should be competed away?
Can the Fed pat its head and rub its stomach? – Wonkblog
/ WP
Fed President Narayana
Kocherlakota said that the problem was central bank communication. The Fed has
not adequately conveyed the message that the bond purchases and interest rates
are not directly connected, he said. That has made the markets unnecessarily
anxious about the first reduction in bond-buying.
Full blown damage control? – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Central bankers are
talking tough in the face of the wild gyrations in financial markets. But it’s
becoming increasingly clear they are sweating – and drawing up contingency
plans to assuage the panic
What Happened The Last 2 Times Mortgage Rates
Spiked Like This? – ZH
The last times we saw
mortgage rates surge like they just have, that marked the peak in consumer
confidence and the market followed shortly after.
MACRO
NUMBERS
Orders for U.S.
Durable Goods Rose More Than Forecast – BB
Durable goods orders,
business spending plans rise – Reuters
Durable Goods Orders
Beat Expectations On Boeing Orders – ZH
Analysis: Durable
Goods Report Looks Encouraging – WSJ
The ’’Real’’ Goods on
the Latest Durable Goods Data – dshort
Consumer Confidence
Hits 5-Year High – WSJ
Consumer Confidence in
U.S. Increases More Than Forecast – BB
Consumer confidence
highest in over five years in June – Reuters
New Home Sales at
476,000 SAAR in May – Calculated
Risk
New home sales near
five-year high, prices rise – Reuters
Case-Shiller: Comp 20
House Prices increased 12.1% y-o-y in April – Calculated
Risk
Home prices see
biggest annual gain in seven years in April: S&P – Reuters
A Look at
Case-Shiller, by Metro Area – WSJ
Great Graphic:
CaseShiller House Price Index and Change – Marc
to Market
A few comments on
House Prices and New Home Sales – Calculated
Risk
Real House Prices,
Price-to-Rent Ratio, City Prices relative to 2000 – Calculated
Risk
Richmond Fed Manufacturing: A Welcome Return to
Expansion – dshort
ASIA
China’s Market Stress: Pay Attention to the
Politics – DealBook
/ NYT
China looks to have a classic moral hazard problem. Unless the government
either allows defaults and failures, or arrests some bankers, how can it force
the banks to improve their risk and liquidity management and really start
channeling financing to more productive parts of the economy?
OTHER
Rates volatility
& Cross Asset volatilities – Macronomics
IMF Releases and
Expands Coordinated Direct Investment Survey to 100 Economies – IMF
The database—available
publicly at http://cdis.imf.org and through the IMF e-library—presents
detailed data on “inward” direct investment
New Research in
Economics: The IMF and Global Financial Crises; Phoenix Rising? – Economist’s
View
This is from Joseph P. Joyce, the author of The IMF and Global Financial
Crises; Phoenix Rising?, which was published last year by Cambridge University
Press. The book examines the evolution of the policies and programs of the IMF
with respect to the global financial markets and crises in these markets
361 Capital Weekly
Research Briefing – The
Reformed Broker