G-8 went, no-one noticed, but perhaps tax evasion will become even harder in the future. Kind of fits with the possible bail-ins coming to Europe - and probably elsewhere as well. US FOMC seems to be on the top of everybody's list. European news getting again nasty - I have a hard time with the view that it would be Europe's turn to surprise positively over the U.S. - perhaps at some point, but not yet, and not in the current state?
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: Market Echoes June
2012 FOMC As Dow Swings Most Since Oct 2011 – ZH
EUROPE
Europe's
most important political party hits the campaign trail: a sneak peak at the EU
section of CDU/CSU's election manifesto – Open
Europe
The EU summit on 27/28 June and what it means
for the banking union – Nordea
Three issues will
dominate the agenda: 1) How to support lending to small and medium enterprises,
2) What to do against youth unemployment, 3) Progress on banking union. In this
note, we focus on the banking union because whether it succeeds or fails will make
a difference for financial markets over time.
The question before the court – Free exchange
/ The Economist
Helmut Siekmann,
professor at the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) at
Goethe University of Frankfurt, and Volker Wieland, professor at the IMFS and a
Member of the German Council of Economic Experts discuss the German court case
on the OMT.
The voters don’t trust
the Greek collateral deal.
PIIGS
No Break for Periphery Banks – EconoMonitor
EU ministers
apparently made little progress last week on terms under which the ESM would
recapitalize weak banks, though they still hope for an agreement by end month.
When Correlation Is Causation – ZH
Relationship between
the surging unemployment rate of the OMT-bound nation and its delinquent loan
growth is hard to argue with.
Berlusconi: Let's breach EU deficit rules,
no-one would throw us out – Open
Europe
The fund said it can't
say with high probability that Portugal's debt is sustainable over the long term, and
noted the country's finances are vulnerable to potential distress such as a
deteriorating growth outlook and higher borrowing rates.
UNITED STATES
The Rally in Three Charts (Hint: It’s Not All
About the Fed) – WSJ
Fed, earnings, jobs.
FED
Bernanke's done, Obama kinda sorta says – Wonkblog
/ WP
The countdown may have
officially begun for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.
The Tapering Talk and Rising Yields Are a Sign
of Recovery – EconoMonitor
For (Bernanke) to even
consider tapering implies he believes a solid recovery may be finally taking
hold. But, by his own admission, a solid recovery means higher interest rates.
Bernanke: mission accomplished – Free
exchange / The Economist
When Mr Bernanke
speaks to the press tomorrow after the release of the Fed's latest policy
statement and economic projections, his task will be to explain why those other
factors justify the probable reduction in asset-purchases by late this year,
despite the fact that the Fed remains well short of the programme's stated
goals.
The chairman’s challenge – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Bernanke says ‘taper,’
markets hear ‘tighten’
FOMC preview: QE tapering? Not yet – TradingFloor
Mads Koefoed: We
expect the FOMC to recognise some improvement in the data, but clarify that it
is not enough to begin tapering QE just yet.
FOMC Decision - "Real Fundamentals"
Or "Reaction Function"
– ZH
As asset-gatherers
bluster about the fact that the Fed can't leave now because things are not that
great (correctly) they are perhaps missing the key point that the Fed has
changed its reaction function from fundamentals to technicals - and is
worried...
MACRO
NUMBERS
Inflation Continues to
Undershoot Fed Target – WSJ
Housing Starts: A few
comments – Calculated
Risk
Fed: Household Debt
Service Ratio near lowest level in 30+ years – Calculated
Risk
Housing Starts,
Permits, CPI All Miss – ZH
Housing Starts In May
Rebound After April's Sharp Correction – The
Capital Spectator
ASIA
The central bank (communications) bubble – alphaville
/ FT
OTHER
Global FX Strategy – A new paradigm? – Nordea
(pdf)
EURUSD has of late
also been supported by higher peripheral bond yields, which attracts investors
to EUR assets, hence supporting long EURUSD, – but is this correlation
sustainable? History strongly suggests NO. This begs the question what will
drive a change and how big will the impact be… The new paradigm could well be
relative growth.
Inflated expectations deflating – Nordea
Inflation is quickly
becoming a topic again – not because of concerns the huge stimulus measures
pursued by central banks would be creating inflation, but because the falling
inflation rates are raising questions of whether central banks are doing enough.
Bonds should thrive in an environment of falling inflation.
2103 World Wealth Report – CFA
Institute
From Capgemini and RBC
Wealth Management
Emerging Markets Briefer - June 2013 – Danske
Bank (pdf)
G-8
G8 Economic Scorecard:
No Runs, No Errors – CFR
G-8 Signs Information
Sharing Agreement To "Fight The Scourge Of Tax Evasion" – ZH
FINNISH
Raportti:
Maahanmuutto hyödyttää julkista taloutta – HS
Tuoreen OECD:n raportin mukaan julkinen
sektori jäi maahanmuutosta plussan puolelle
Immigration and the public finances: Boon or
burden? – The
Economist
A new study shows that
the fiscal impact of migration is broadly neutral: the impact of migration
becomes slightly negative (minus 0.1% of GDP on average).
Migration picking up but rising unemployment
hurting immigrants – OECD
International Migration Outlook 2013 – OECD
OECD:
Suomi ei ole hyötynyt maahanmuutosta – Juhani
Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro
Liberalistinen
vapauden kaipuu voimistuu – HS
Matti Apunen on Elinkeinoelämän valtuuskunnan
johtaja.
Liberaalien
vapausihanteiden väärinkäyttö – Teivo Teivainen
On aika haastaa vapautta julistavien
käskytysjärjestelmien puolustajien taipumus omia liberaalit vapausihanteet.
Omistamiseen perustuvien etuoikeuksien pönkittämistä ei ole järkevää kuvata
liber-alkuisilla termeillä.
Heikki
Koskenkylän analyysi EU:n ja IMF:n väittelystä - kumpi on oikeassa? – PS
Onko Kreikalla velkasaneeraus edessä? Suomen
Pankin osastopäällikkönä toiminut valtiotieteiden tohtori Heikki Koskenkylä
arvioi EU:n ja IMF:n kriisinhoitomenetelmiä ja kertoo kantansa Suomen asemasta
mahdollisessa velkasaneeraustilanteessa.
HS-gallup:
Kriisimaiden tukeminen ei miellytä suomalaisia – HS
Suomalaiset vaativat euroalueelle samaan
aikaan elvytystä ja säästökuuria. Kreikka-vakuuksiin luottaa vain neljännes
suomalaisista.
Kansa
ei usko Kreikan vakuuksiin – HS
Jos
talouskasvu loppuu kun keskuspankit lopettavat elvytyksen niin jatkakoot
elvytystä – presidentti Niinistö toisella linjalla – tyhmyri
Euron
tuho, euroero ja Saksan perustuslakituomioistuin – Raha
ja talous