Most important things
to watch: markets are reacting to Hilsenrath’s comments and interpretation
again shifts to ”QE about to end soon”-camp. I suggest going through today’s
Fed-related links to get a clearer head on the matter. USDJPY volatility
(higher USDJPY = USD demand = bearish for EURUSD) is another topic. The
European ministers sit down today to review the Moneyval report on money laundering
in Cyprus. A ‘pass’ was a requirement for the bailout,
but everybody knows that the report will not find anything bad, and the bailout
will proceed as planned. US retail sales data coming up later, and is very
important, European GDP later this week.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News roundup – Between The
Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus
– WSJ
MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: US Retail Sales, US
Inventories, USDJPY – TradingFloor
Today’s US retail sales update is expected to post
another decline, which will focus attention on the inventories report that
follows. Also, keep an eye on USDJPY in the wake of last week’s rise above the
100 mark for the first time in four years.
Market Preview: EU fin. ministers' meeting, US
retail sales eyed – TradingFloor
European markets are
expected to open mixed Monday. Investors will keep a tab on the EU finance
ministers' meeting later today where issues will be discussed related to Greece's bailout. Also, US retail sales data is likely to hold market
interest.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
G7 meeting
focused on Japan and the weak yen. Fed’s exit plan is back on the agenda. Tax
hike likely to weigh on US retail sales today
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Eurotalous jatkaa
laskussa * Valuuttasodan seuraava näytös * Vahvistunut dollari painoi öljyn
hintaa
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
Viime viikko päättyi jälleen uusiin
osakemarkkinoiden huippuihin USA:ssa, hyödykkeet palailivat laskutrendiin. Kiinan
aamulla julkaistu huhtikuun data melko lailla odotettua. Iltapäivällä
julkaistaan USA:n vähittäismyynnin ennakko huhtikuulta. Osakefutuurit lähellä
nollaa, ennakoiden tasaista avausta OMX HEX:iin. Ulkomaalaisomistusten
muutokset huhtikuussa: Korkoinstrumenteista siirrytään matalariskisiin
(defensiivisiin) osakkeisiin, syklisiä myydään. Ostoputkessa: Konecranes, Neste
Oil, Orion, PKC, Pöyry. Myyntiputkessa: Stockmann.
EUROPE
Euro Recession Seen Persisting to Longest in
Bloc’s Era – BB
Nicholas Crafts: The
UK escaped a liquidity trap in the 1930s and enjoyed a strong economic
recovery. This column argues that what drove this recovery was ‘unconventional’
monetary policy implemented not by the Bank of England but by the Treasury.
Thus, Neville Chamberlain was an early proponent of ‘Abenomics’. This raises
the question: is inflation targeting by an independent central bank appropriate
at a time of very low nominal-interest rates? (Krugman also comments this in Nevillenomics)
European bank deleveraging and global credit
conditions – voxeu.org
Before the global
financial crisis, European banks had rapidly expanded their foreign-lending
activities. However, this column argues that financial stress in Europe has put
this process into reverse and negatively affected credit conditions in
developed and emerging markets alike. As European banks repair their balance
sheets and rethink their business models in a context of stricter regulatory
requirements, financial fragmentation, and a deteriorating European economy,
they continue to retrench to home markets.
British ministers voice support for leaving EU – euobserver
Two senior British
ministers have said they would vote to leave the EU if there was a referendum
now.
Population growth
rates serve as some kind of “quick and dirty” proxy for GDP growth rates, and
growth in working age population serves equally well as a quick proxy for
growth in GDP per capita.
A comprehensive guide
to the EU, its institutions, and history, which will be of interest to EU
specialists and non-specialists alike.
David Rosenberg: A
Bond Bull Turns Bearish * Wage Inflation? * Skills Versus Education * Kyle Bass
and Japan
Weekly: Closing Arguments: Nothing Further,
Your Honor – Hussman
FED
Bernanke signals the Fed is uneasy with
"reaching for yield"
– Sober
Look
The Hilsenrath "Tapering" Article Is
Out – ZH
The Annotated Hilsenrath – ZH
In a weekend dominated
by discussion of the "Taper Tantrum", i.e., interpretations of what
Hilsenrath "said" after the close on Friday, what the Fed wanted him
to say, what the market's response to what he said or did not say would be, and
what the next steps may be, we present this convenient annotation of
Hilsenrath's complete recital courtesy of Mike O'Rourke from Jones Trading.
Fed Notes – Tim Duy’s
Fed Watch
The current state of
labor force utilization and inflation suggest that while the end of QE may
occur this year, the first rate hike is not likely until some point well into
the future.
Implications of Fed Tightening for Equities – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Fears of an imminent
policy-driven collapse in equity prices are likely greatly
over-exaggerated.
Don’t confuse liquidity with credit – Mark Dow
There is zero
correlation between the Fed printing and the money supply
Most Economists Back Yellen’s
Inflation-Fighting Credentials
– WSJ
Janet Yellen is by far
the most likely successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, according
to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey, and most
agree that she is sufficiently resistant to inflation to be a successful leader
of the central bank.
Who Are the Leading Fed Contenders? – WSJ
A rundown of the
leading contenders for the post of Fed chairman, and some key quotes about
their views on monetary policy.
OTHER
FX Comment: another false start? – Nordea
QE-exit fears lifted
the USD yet again. Are we putting the cart ahead of the horse here? Soft US
data
Meet Dylan, the day trader – WP