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Tuesday, April 30

30th Apr - US Open: ECB, Easy Be?



ECB- and FED specials to be posted on Wednesday.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Current Specials:

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Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Record Unemployment And Dropping Inflation Sets Up An ECB Rate Cut – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Internal paper from German finance ministry blasts French economy; FDP chancellor candidate: France is ‘Europe’s big problem child’

Europe Morning MoneyBeat – WSJ
Morning MoneyBeat: Stocks, Bonds Go Their Own Way – WSJ
Morning Bond Update – TradingFloor
FX: Fire but No Light – Marc to Market
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Meet the new boss, same as the old boss – BNY Mellon
  The AUD’s reserve currency status


EUROPE
The Erosion of EuropeProject Syndicate
Joschka Fischer: The Cyprus crisis revealed the full extent of the political disaster that the eurozone crisis has wrought: the EU is disintegrating at its core. Europeans’ current crisis of confidence concerning Europe is far more dangerous than renewed market anxiety, because it cannot be overcome with another liquidity injection by the ECB.
                                   
The Beatings Must ContinueKrugman / NYT
OECD’s Mr. Padoan said the growing perception that austerity has been futile is incorrect. “Fiscal consolidation is producing results, the pain is producing results,” he said.
 
EU Social Affairs Commissioner: 'Wages in Germany Must Increase'Spiegel
Wages in Germany must increase and the government should establish a nationwide minimum wage, says EU Social Affairs Commissioner László Andor. In an interview with a German daily, he calls for a radical change in policy in the euro crisis and argues for a shift away from the country's export model.

No Let(ta) up for euro zoneMacroScope / Reuters
Italy renounces austerity

Insight: Why did Cypriot banks keep buying Greek bonds?Reuters
Cypriots want to know who decided to plough their savings into the doomed public accounts of their bigger neighbor, Greece, and why. But answers are proving elusive, not helped by the mysterious wiping of data at Bank of Cyprus.

France versus realityMacroBusiness
France is an economic microcosm to understand why the ECB’s programs of OMT and LTRO can’t actually solve anything with the Eurozone. As I talked about back last September the ECB offers liquidity to the banking system via asset swaps, but if there is no private sector demand for credit, due to private sector retrenchment, then this will do bugger all to help the economies of periphery Europe.

Eurogloomalphaville / FT
Euro area unemployment rate at 12.1%, inflation down to 1.2%

  GERMANY

Soros vs Sinnalphaville / FT
Hans-Werner Sinn — he of Target2 imbalance fame — had a piece on Project Syndicate last week in which he stood firm against George Soros and his demands for Germany to leave the euro if it continues to block the introduction of Eurobonds.


Focus Germany: GDP forecast: Uptick in Q1, slippage in Q2Deutsche Bank

Growth vs. austerity in the German electoral debateNordea
Any difference between CDU and SPD? Germany is often seen as the country most pushing Southern Europe into a highly restrictive fiscal policy, while at the same time denying any meaningful stimulus at home.

  ECB
The credit matrixalphaville / FT
For one, banks can’t lend if they can’t find borrowers — although it might be unfair to blame borrowers who are seeing unappealing terms — and for two, central banks have poured a fair amount of liquidity out there with more available on tap. Morgan Stanley and UBS discuss possible solutions.

Negative interest rates – the Danish experienceNordea (pdf)
The ECB faces mounting pressure to ease monetary policy in the Euro area. In our view, this leaves the ECB with four options: 1) keep the powder dry and hope for the best: unchanged rates (60%), 2) the safe choice: narrowing the interest rate corridor by lowering the refi rate, while keeping the deposit rate unchanged (30%), 3) unknown territory: lowering both the deposit and lending rates, in the process slashing the deposit rate to below zero (5%), 4) All in one: launching new unconventional monetary policy measures while at the same time cutting rates (5%)

ECB Rate Cut May Not Be a Done DealWSJ

OTHER
US jobs data: hints for the global economyThe A-List / FT
Mohamed El-Erian: After last week's horrible unemployment numbers from Europe, some may be tempted to downplay the monthly US jobs report coming out this Friday. That would be a big mistake. The data will help shed light on four issues that are central to the wellbeing of both America and the global economy.

FX Hot Picks - EUR support despite ECB this weekDanske Bank (pdf)

The oil price bottom is behind usNordea (pdf)
Summary here.