Special: Bailout of Cyprus (updated)
Roundups &
Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Driven By Yen Carry Despite Relentless European Deterioration
– ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe
Morning MarketBeat: Correction Timing Triggers Debate – WSJ
Morning Bond Update – TradingFloor
Much News, Little Action – Marc to
Market
Morning Briefing
(EU/US): Contrarian Thinking – BNY
Mellon
Is it
time to challenge consensus thinking on the JPY?
EUROPE
France and Germany snub Cameron on EU law
review – euobserver
UK leader David
Cameron's attempt to get other member states to participate in a review of EU
laws has suffered an embarrassing setback.
ECB preview – still too early for Draghi to
signal near-term rate cut – Nordea
We expect no changes
in key policy rates and no new non-standard measures from the ECB at Thursday’s
meeting. Lots of questions about Cyprus, but Draghi will probably not give any
answers. Market reaction could be slightly negative again
Depositors in Eurozone banks are facing a steep learning curve on just exactly
what deposit insurance means. This column points that that the precedents set
in Cyprus and Iceland show that deposit insurance is only a legal commitment
for small bank failures. In systemic crises, these are more political than
legal commitments, so the solvency of the insuring government matters. A Eurozone-wide deposit-insurance scheme would change this.
Time for us to bank on a new Marshall Plan – Bruegel
The time has also come
to engineer a massive investment programme for southern Europe, like a kind of new Marshall-plan. After all,
every euro-member is responsible for the defunct architecture of the euro that
allowed the build-up of vulnerabilities that are now causing suffering to
millions of people.
Spain's Deficit Set to Soar; GDP Poised to
Plunge; Job Losses Fastest in 3 Years; IIF Wants Permanent Tax Hikes – Mish’s
Markit Manufacturing PMI’s
European manufacturing ebbs further in March – Reuters
Manufacturing across Europe's major economies endured another month of
mostly deep decline in March, dragging down even former bright spots, surveys
showed on Tuesday.
UNITED STATES
Debt to GDP Ratios: Why Not Make the
Numerologists Happy? – CEPR
Blogs review: The when and how of exit
strategies – Bruegel
Markets trembled when
minutes from the December FOMC meeting revealed that members had discussed the
side effects of maintaining a $85 billion pace of monthly asset purchases and
the timing of its potential end. In a recent press conference, Ben Bernanke
said “we may adjust the flow rate of purchases from month to month to
appropriately calibrate the amount of accommodation” generating a number of
discussions about the practicalities and implications of the Fed’s exit from
years of quantitative easing.
ASIA
Analysis: BoJ's Kuroda tested by divided board – Reuters
Bank of Japan Governor
Haruhiko Kuroda is struggling to build a consensus ahead of his first central
bank board meeting this week, risking disappointing markets that expect hefty
bond purchases and a radical shift in its policymaking framework.
Expectations management for the BoJ – alphaville
/ FT
That is the first time
Abe has suggested the inflation target he set out four months ago may not be
met within the two-year timeframe outlined by Kuroda, his choice for Bank of
Japan governor. And it comes just ahead of a very pivotal BoJ meeting. (comments
from Deutsche, HSBC)
OTHER
*Macro update... while we were out... – TradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: A long
Easter break could hide some of the damage done to markets while we were gone,
but here is the 'ugly list' of news and events that took place and will reappear
over the coming week.
JPY stronger ahead of BoJ. Key EURUSD
resistance still in place – TradingFloor
Olivier Blanchard’s Five Lessons for Economists
From the Financial Crisis – WSJ