Today has been a central planning day. plenty of speakers from the Federal Reserve, in Europe Mr. Draghi spoke to the parliament and then IMF presented its latest World Economic Outlook - which hardly surprised anyone, except perhaps those who still believe in the European Commission and the fairy tale of the eurozone. I will post a quick "special" on the IMF and latest blog storm regarding the seminal paper by Kenneth & Rogoff.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
After five years of
decline in living standards in much of Europe, voters oppose more austerity and further
retrenchment without growth. Restoring a sound euro requires policies that
revive growth, rein in government spending, and reform heavily regulated labor
and product markets.
PIIGS
The German parliament
is likely to approve Cyprus' bailout programme despite concerns over a
widening funding gap and growth projections which may prove too optimistic.
Cyprus central bank failed in its job,
president tells ECB – Reuters
EU 'aware' that Spanish bailout did not protect
fraud victims – euobserver
The EU commission is
"aware" that a bailout agreed with the Spanish government means
thousands of people will never get their savings back, but says it it is up to
courts to help the conned depositors.
More on peripheral pain – Free exchange
/ The Economist
…the main reason the
single currency is at risk is that the core, and the ECB, are subjecting the
union to patterns of nominal growth it simply can't be expected to endure.
ECB
Speech Draghi: Hearing before the Plenary of
the European Parliament – ECB
Deposit guarantees and burden-sharing, quote
du jour – alphaville
/ FT
Dudley Suggests No Urgency in Paring Back QE3 – WSJ
Yellen Doesn’t See
Excessive Risk Taking – WSJ
Tapering Talk: What
Fed Officials Are Saying About Winding Down Bond Purchases – WSJ
MACRO
NUMBERS
Fed: Industrial
Production increased 0.4% in March – Calculated
Risk
Key Measures show low
inflation in March – Calculated
Risk
A few comments on
Housing Starts – Calculated
Risk
Housing Starts Surge
Due To Rental Housing Construction, Permits Miss – ZH
Housing Starts &
Industrial Production Rose In March – Capital
Spectator
Interactive Home Price map – N.Y. FED
Updated with latest
data.
Another Spring Slowdown? – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
The data flow is not
as uniformly positive as it seemed just a month ago. Arguably, we are experiencing yet another
spring slowdown. This should trigger
some monetary policymakers to reassess their predictions that QE could be
safely terminated at the end of this year.
But there may be a contigent that has dug in its heels on the issue and
are asking themselves "how bad does the data have to get to continue
assets purchases"
Press censorship,
repression of dissent, and the absence of organized opposition allow autocratic
rulers everywhere to promise whatever they want, with no political consequences
for failing to deliver. China has perfected this form of government over the
last decade, as President Xi Jinping's first months in power have shown.
OTHER
Things that make you go Hmmm... – Grant Williams
via John Mauldin (pdf)
34 pages of pure
market talk.
EM Bond Snapshot - April 2013 – Danske Bank (pdf)