I will add
content and comments to this post during and after today’s press. Last update: 23:30 GMT 7-March
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
ECB schedule & links
After an
announcement of decisions at 12:45 GMT, governor Draghi will hold a press
conference, beginning at 13:30 GMT with a reading of a pre-written statement,
followed by a Q&A session with the press.
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| Dashboard at the previous meeting (click to enlarge) |
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| Dashboard for the current meeting |
27-FEBRUARY
ECB Says Private
Lending Contracted for Ninth Month in January – BB
Euro zone private lending falls, but the ECB
gets its excuse – TradingFloor
Juhani
Huopainen: In the aftermath of the Italian election, the European Central
Bank's whatever it takes promise is being doubted. To assure investors that
there is a backstop, the ECB needs an excuse - and today it got it.
Kostaako EKP Italian "väärän" vaalituloksen?
– Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Italian kansa on juuri äänestänyt väärin maansa
parlamenttivaaleissa, jos markkinoiden ensireaktiot asiasta mitään kertovat.
Samaa mieltä lienevät EU:n talouspäättäjät. Eurooppalainen demokratia sen
sijaan sai vaihteeksi välierävoiton – jota kestää, kunnes EKP ja markkinat taas
kiristävät Italiaan mieleisensä hallituksen.
28-FEBRUARY
The logic
is that a ‘bad’ political outcome in Italy will lead the ECB to become more
hawkish and effectively tighten monetary conditions by signaling that the ECB
is not happy about the ‘outcome’ in Italy and therefore will not ease monetary
policy going forward even if economic conditions would dictate it.
A flaw in euro zone defences – MacroScope
/ Reuters
The story
of the last five months has been the bond-buying safety net cast by the
European Central Bank which took the sting out of the currency bloc’s debt
crisis. But now it has an Achilles’ Heel. The ECB has stated it will only buy
the bonds of a country on certain policy conditions.
ECB Cash Seen as a Danger – WSJ
Increasingly
it seems that all the easy cash the European Central Bank has been doling out
to fight the symptoms of the debt crisis could come at a high cost.
1-MARCH
The Eager for Catastrophe
Bank – Free
exchange / The Economist
ECB policy
can at this point be described as both cruel and unusual.
2-MARCH
4-MARCH
5-MARCH
ECB Preview: Draghi turns
softer as recovery fails – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Draghi Will Need to Push the Euro Down Some
More – WSJ
With the
euro-zone recovery proving weaker than hoped, Italian politics proving as
intractable as feared and the euro itself failing to fall far, there is every
reason for Mario Draghi to hint at more monetary-policy easing this time round,
writes columnist Nicholas Hastings.
The ECB is
unlikely to provide further stimulus to the euro-zone economy on Thursday, but persistently
weak economic growth has some economists looking for a rate cut later this year.
6-MARCH
Did OMTs Turn the ECB Into a
Real Central Bank?
– WSJ
There is a
tide in the affairs of central banking which, taken at the flood, leads on to
fortune, as Shakespeare almost said
7-MARCH
3 Numbers to Watch: DE manufacturers' orders,
ECB policy, US jobs
– TradingFloor
Analysts
expect higher factory orders for Germany in January, followed by an ECB
decision that will keep its benchmark rate at 0.75 percent. The market is also
looking for a slight rise in US weekly jobless claims
US economy continues to show signs of
improvement. Asian equity markets are mixed to lower overnight following small
gains in the US. BoJ keeps policy unchanged as
leadership is about to change. All focus is on the ECB and BoE but the
consensus expectation is for no change. Market movers today: BoE & ECB
meetings
The ECB has
to decide how big a threat Italy poses to Europe’s recovery. A rejection of
austerity in the euro area’s third-largest economy has produced a political
stalemate that’s driven up bond yields and undermined confidence in ECB
President Mario Draghi’s scenario of a gradual economic upturn.
ECB to hold line on bond buys, keep rates at
0.75 percent – Reuters
The ECB
will eschew dramatic action on Thursday to help Italy or other euro zone countries caught
up in its backwash, despite the threat of political turmoil in Rome reigniting the bloc's debt crisis.
To print or not to print – MacroScope
/ Reuters
It’s ECB
day and it could be a big one, not because a shift in policy is expected but
because journalists will get an hour to quiz Mario Draghi on the Italy conundrum after the central bank
leaves monetary policy on hold.
Previewing Today's ECB's Decision – ZH
Position
Adjustment Ahead of BOE and ECB – Marc
to Market
ECB to keep the powder dry – TradingFloor
Sentiment
has turned more bullish on a rate cut at today's ECB meeting. We believe,
however, that anybody expecting fireworks are setting themselves up for a
disappointment and that the ECB will instead keep the main refinancing rate at
75bp.
BANG!
Live Blog: ECB Rate Announcement – WSJ
Statement – ECB
ECB keeps rates unchanged, but rate cut risks
remain – Nordea
The ECB
decided to keep interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. Draghi’s statement
was more or less unchanged in its wording compared with the statement a month
ago.
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the
euro area – ECB
(pdf)
Data are soft - Draghi is not – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Draghi Pokes Fun at Critics’ “Angst of the
Week” – WSJ
The ECB's Press Corps Realize They Have No Idea
What OMT Is: "The Rules Are What They Are" Explains Draghi – ZH
Draghi Keeps Gradual Recovery Faith as ECB Cuts
Forecasts – BB
ECB
President Mario Draghi stuck to his view that the euro region will gradually
recover later this year even as officials trimmed their economic forecasts and
considered cutting interest rates.
ECB afterthoughts: Draghi’s bad cop day – TradingFloor
Juhani
Huopainen: The ECB did nothing and promised nothing, and said everyone already
knows how the OMT programme operates. Given the terrible macro picture, this
was just bad cop to Italy and good cop to Germany.
Eurozone risks Japan-style deflation trap as
ECB stays tight – The
Telegraph
The ECB has
cut its eurozone growth forecast to minus 0.5pc this year and warned of
glacially-slow recovery in 2014, but refused any fresh stimulus to mitigate the
slump.