Last week’s
Econ & Markets here.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: Weekly Support (last week, next week)
Weekender: Best of the Week (from the ending week)
The Unlikely Friends of Austerity – mainly
macro
Believing in "miracles"?
Self-defeating austerity and self-financing stimulus – Not
the Treasury View
What is Modern Monetary Theory, or “MMT”? – naked
capitalism
Theories of financial crises – voxeu.org
Broadly
speaking, there are three types of economic crisis: banking crises and panics,
credit frictions and market freezes, and currency crises. This column argues
that features from these types of crises have been at work and interacted with
each other to shape the events of the last few years
Crude Sachsism – Economist’s
View
The Importance of Printing Your Own Currency – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Weekend Lecture: Keynes and the Crisis of
Capitalism – Global
Macro Monitor
Dylan Grice Explains How "Crackpot"
Central Bankers Are Destroying Society – ZH
MARKETS
Networks in finance – The
Physics of Finance
Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Investing Rules – Street
Talk Live
7 dirty words of trading – trader habits
Nasdaq 100 Rebalancing – When The Losers Become
Winners – Ivanhoff
Chart Of The Day: Corporate Profits – The
Short Side of The Long
Investing/Trading Rules, Aphorisms & Books
(Spring 2013) – The
Big Picture
Inflation Coming? Buy Bonds Says SocGen's
Albert Edwards – ZH
The almighty dollar – Free
exchange / The Economist
The dollar
has been looking relatively strong of late:
Howard Marks: "It Isn't Just A Windfall,
It's A Warning Sign" – ZH
Jaw-Dropping Crimes of the Big Banks – The
Big Picture
Conditional Risk Premia in Currency Markets
and Other Asset Classes – SSRN
Is downside
risk the critical driver of investor asset valuation? In the January 2013
version of their paper entitled “Conditional Risk Premia in Currency Markets
and Other Asset Classes”, Martin Lettau, Matteo Maggiori and Michael Weber
explore the ability of a simple downside risk capital asset pricing model
(DR-CAPM) to explain and predict asset returns.
Weekend Reading for Financial Advisers – CFA
Institute
Behavioral
Finance, Twitter, and Memory
The veteran
investor Felix W. Zulauf, president of Zulauf Asset Management AG, discusses
the future of the eurozone and China’s effects on the world economy.
2013 Country Stock Market Returns: Local
Currency vs. Dollar Adjusted – Bespoke
President Nixon: The Man Who Sold the World
Fiat Money – CFA
Institute
Commodity prices in the (very) long run – Free
exchange / The Economist
Where banks really make money on IPOs – Felix
Salmon / Reuters
Chasing the next hot market – Sober Look
A Different Version of the "Dumb"
Swiss Banker Story
– Bruce
Krasting / ZH
Who's Got All The Cash (For Now)? – ZH
The Truth About Market Timing – The
Big Picture
Curriculum Vitae – The
Epicurean Dealmaker
Financial Innovation: Helpful or Harmful to
Markets? – CFA
Institute
Business Cycles and Markets – Calculated
Risk
But why are
investors so focused on the business cycle? Obviously earnings decline in a
recession, and stock prices fall too. The following graph shows the
year-over-year (YoY) change in the S&P 500 (using average monthly prices)
since 1970. Notice that the market usually declines YoY in a recession.