Weekender: Weekly Support (weekly market reviews and
previews)
Charts from the day before elections:
 |
| CDS on Italian Government Bond |
 |
| Italian 2-year government bond yield |
 |
| Italian 10-year government bond yield |
 |
| FTSE MIB Italian stock index |
 |
| 10-year government bond yield spread (Italy - Germany) |
 |
| Source: Termometro Politico |
Yksittäisten puolueiden kannatuksen tuijottaminen on moka:oleellista on katsoa vaaliliittoja, jotka ennustanevat paremmin sitä, minkälaisen ja kuinka toimintakykyisen hallituksen maa saa. Toisekseen: johtuen italialaisista omituisuuksista, oleellista ei välttämättä ole puolueiden äänimäärällinen kannatus, vaan alueelliset kannatusluvut. Alueelliset luvut julkaistaan vasta myöhään maanantai-iltana.
Keskeiset porukat
1) Italia Bene Commune, eli Yhteinen Hyvä, on keskusta-vasemmistolainen liittouma, jonka nokkamies on Bersani. Kuvassa punainen. Kannatus kääntyi vuodenvaihteessa laskuun, oli ennakkosuosikki.
2) Berlusconin porukka, kuvassa sininen. Kakkossijalla, mutta on noussut hyvin.
3) Montin porukka ja
4) Koomikon vetämä Viisi Tähteä-porukka ovat käytännössä tasoissa. Tosin viimeisten tietojen mukaan Viisi Tähteä olisi noussut rajusti.
Jos kuvaa katsoo, trendit ovat mielenkiintoiset. Mielipidekyselyitä ei saa tehdä vaalien alla, mutta ihan olemassaolevia käyriä ekstrapoloimalla voidaan arvata, että 1) ja 2) ovat käytännössä tasoissa.
Lisäksi Berlu on nostanut kierroksia, lähettänyt mm. lupauksia maksaa takaisin jo perittyjä veroja jne. jos hänet valitaan.
Oma fiilis on, että 30% Berlu voittaa, mutta sekä Monti ja Viisi Tähteä eivät suostuisi yhteistyöhön. Tuskin Bersanin porukkakaan.
70%, että Bersanin jengi voittaa. Eivät saa riittävää enemmistöä, jolloin joutuvat kaveeraamaan joko Montin tai Viiden Tähden kanssa. Koska Viisi Tähteä vastustaa euroa ja korruptiota, Bersanin alkuperäinen + Monti siten, että Bersanin alkuperäisestä liitosta poistuu joitain eurokyösteilyä vastustavia on todennäköisin vaihtoehto.
First numbers out:
Center-Left 34.5% (Bersani)
Center-Right 29% (Berlusconi)
Grillo 19%
Monti 9.5%
AFTERNOON: Looks like it will be Bersani's center-left, + Monti. This had already been discounted by the markets, so EURUSD in for a dip now. Always: buy the rumor, sell the news.
EVENING: With 80
percent of the votes counted in Italy's parliamentary elections,
Berlusconi has 127 seats against Bersani's 111. This would make it impossible
for either of them to rule without the support of the bigger winner - the
comedian Grillo.
Live: Italian
elections – The World / FT
Italy's election Live – Reuters
Rai 1 Italian
television channel – filmontv
Italian election
results: an interactive guide – The
Guardian
Interactive poll charts and data tables Termometro Politico
Steen
Jakobsen: Rumor: Latest unofficial poll --- Bersani (32%) - Berlusconi(30%),
Grillo(18%), Monti(10%), out of London…….if true it could be nasty weekend
– TradingFloor
Election 2013 page on Wikipedia
ARTICLE LINKS
4-FEB
Italian Austerity in the Polls – EconoMonitor
After four years since the beginning of the world Great Recession, and one year of the Monti-Merkel “austerity” therapy, Italy goes to the general elections. Here is an account of what happened, what has been done and with what results.
After four years since the beginning of the world Great Recession, and one year of the Monti-Merkel “austerity” therapy, Italy goes to the general elections. Here is an account of what happened, what has been done and with what results.
Bank Of Italy Caught Lying About
Imploding Monte Paschi – ZH
5-FEB
Silvio Berlusconi’s broken tax promises – Data / FT
Italians face among the highest tax burdens in the OECD countries combined with high energy prices and public services. It’s little surprise that promises to alleviate the amount of money taken from Italians for public services that are not always provided have a strong appeal to the electorate. But Berlusconi has failed to keep his tax promises so far, and there are no reasons to think it will be different this time.
Silvio Berlusconi’s broken tax promises – Data / FT
Italians face among the highest tax burdens in the OECD countries combined with high energy prices and public services. It’s little surprise that promises to alleviate the amount of money taken from Italians for public services that are not always provided have a strong appeal to the electorate. But Berlusconi has failed to keep his tax promises so far, and there are no reasons to think it will be different this time.
Italy: foreign policy and the election – The
World / FT
Italy’s Bersani Urges Pragmatic Push to Closer EU Union – WSJ
Pier Luigi Bersani, who according to opinion polls could be Italy's next prime minister, went to Berlin Tuesday to call for closer European integration, saying that "[budget] realism too often defeats common sense" in the region's negotiations about its own future.
Pier Luigi Bersani, who according to opinion polls could be Italy's next prime minister, went to Berlin Tuesday to call for closer European integration, saying that "[budget] realism too often defeats common sense" in the region's negotiations about its own future.
The Two Scariest Words In Europe: "Silvio Berlusconi" – ZH
Monte: oops – alphaville /
FT
World’s oldest bank puts out a late-night statement confirming “the presence of errors” in three structured transactions.
World’s oldest bank puts out a late-night statement confirming “the presence of errors” in three structured transactions.
Some argue
that the elections to be held in Italy are the most important for that
country in three decades, since the fate of the euro could be at stake.
Is Italy’s economic crisis fuelling euroscepticism? – The
World / FT
How A Previously Secret Collateral
Transformation With The Bank Of Italy Prevented Monte
Paschi's Nationalization – ZH
Berlusconi Ally May
Seek Local Currency for Use Alongside Euro – BB
Silvio Berlusconi’sbiggest political ally in the
campaign for Italian parliamentary elections said he may support a plan to
create a local currency that could be used alongside the euro in the region of Lombardy.
Italy is mired
in its fourth recession since 2001 as Prime Minster Mario Monti’s policies to
contain the budget deficit curb domestic demand. Unemployment was at the highest
in more than 13 years in December and consumer confidence fell in January to
the lowest level since at least 1996.
Italian
general elections, due 24-25 February, are nearing and hence we take the
opportunity to sum up our views and add a scenario, where Berlusconi
unexpectedly wins the lower house. The election is most likely to produce a
favorable outcome in the sense that a reform-minded government can be formed.
However, from a market point of view, risks are clearly skewed towards a
negative surprise and hence this note will focus on what could go wrong and how
markets will react before and after the elections. (summary)
Euro-Skeptic Grillo Pushes for Italy Debt Renegotiation – BB
Beppe Grillo,
the Italian comic poised to play a spoiler in this month’s national elections,
is gaining ground in opinion polls as he campaigns for sovereign debt relief to
revive the country’s stagnant economy…Support for Grillo’s party rose to 18.8
percent in a Feb. 8 SWG Institute poll from 15.9 percent in a Jan 11 survey.
That compares with a decline of 1.1 percentage points to 33.8 percent for
Bersani and gains of 2.5 percentage points for Berlusconi over the same period.
Given the
economic and political tumult roiling not only Italy, but the eurozone as a whole, the outcome
of Italy's election will have a far-reaching impact.
Just what that impact will be, however, is impossible to predict – that is,
unless Silvio Berlusconi returns to power, in which case the consequences will
be all too clear.
14-FEB
In the 2013 Italian elections the centre-left coalition is almost certain to win a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, but is very unlikely to win a majority in the Senate – europp / LSE
In the 2013 Italian elections the centre-left coalition is almost certain to win a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, but is very unlikely to win a majority in the Senate – europp / LSE
Italian Polls Don’t Point at a Strong Majority
for Next Government
– WSJ
Ten days to
the Italian vote and polls experts are still clueless about the outcome of the
election. Except for one thing: In a year or two, Italians could be called to
cast their vote again
Italian
police arrested on Thursday the former head of Monte dei Paschi's finance department,
who is at the center of a probe into alleged fraud and bribery at Italy's third largest bank, prosecutors
said.
Point Counterpoint in the Italian Campaign – A
Fistful of Euros
What is
playing out is a classic competition between management strategies, as Vendola
advocates for activist stimulus and Monti calls on Italians to tighten their
belts for one more round. Bersani meanwhile tries to walk a fine line he calls
“austerity with justice,” whatever that turns out to mean. But as Hollande
waffles along the same line, and Merkel prepares to defend her mercantilist
fundamentalism this fall, Italy–for all its woes, still the
Eurozone’s 3rd biggest economy–will be helping to arbitrate the larger EU’s
path through this intractable crisis.
Berlusconi will drive Italy into bailout, bank
says – euobserver
Berlusconi's
possible comeback would drive up Italy's borrowing costs and offer the
"perfect excuse" to apply for a bailout, Italy's largest investment bank has
warned.
The Italian centre-left is stalling in the
campaign, but (probably) not in the election – europp
/ LSE
Italy Vote Nears, Spurring Noise and a Tinge of Panic – WSJ
Italy’s election campaign has become more
and more combative just as it’s increasingly likely that no simple majority
will be formed, requiring post-electoral coalition forging.
What might have
been a sustained debate on the merits of austerity measures in a prolonged
recession, on the future of Italian employment and its welfare state or a host
of other pressing issues, has instead taken on the quality of an unsavory
burlesque revue.
In the Picture: the subversive appeal of Beppe
Grillo – The
World / FT
Final
opinion polls published ahead of the February 24-25 election showed his Five
Star Movement in third position with 13-16% of the vote – ahead of Monti’s
Civic Choice and only a few points behind Berlusconi’s People of Liberty. So
how did he get there? And what does he really believe in?
Italy’s Politicians Face the Pinocchio Test – WSJ
With just days to go before Italians head to the polling
booths, it’s time to review how the main candidates's claims stack up.
Whoever wins this
week’s Italian elections, it is unlikely that they will put an end to the
‘telecracy’ begun by Silvio Berlusconi. – europp
/ LSE
Italy risks split Senate after election – graphic of the day – Thomson
Reuters
Italy is
governed by two houses with equal lawmaking power. The Chamber of Deputies is
controlled by whichever group gets the majority nationally. The Senate is
decided by region, with 55% of each region’s seats awarded to the biggest party
there. In four large regions, the battle between center-left and center-right
coalitions is too close to call.
Italy's North-South Divide, And Lombardia's Starring Role In The Elections – ZH
Italian Elections: Uncertainty to Linger – Marc
to Market
European "Democracy": EU Parliament
Head Tells Italians Not To Vote For Silvio – ZH
Italy election: Why voters back Berlusconi, no matter what – BBC
To many in the outside world, Silvio Berlusconi is the
clown prince of politics - better known for his bunga-bunga parties, outrageous
comments and courtroom battles than for any obvious political nous.
Evidence from Italy shows that electoral
reforms can often have the opposite effect of what is intended – europp
/ LSE
Italian elections re-open risk of EU crisis – euobserver
Italian voters
are heading to the polls on Sunday and Monday in a closely-watched race that
could bring the country to the brink of a bailout.
Your Complete, 10-Step Italian Election Guide – ZH
24-FEB
Italy election: Why voters back Berlusconi, no matter what – BBC
25-FEB
Market Kneejerk Reaction To Italian Exit Polls – ZH
26-FEB
27-FEB
Italy’s Election Results Might Yield Progress on Reform – PIIE
24-FEB
Italy election: Why voters back Berlusconi, no matter what – BBC
To many in
the outside world, Silvio Berlusconi is the clown prince of politics - better
known for his bunga-bunga parties, outrageous comments and courtroom battles
than for any obvious political nous.
Italy votes in election seen as key for economic recovery – BBC
Italians
have begun voting in general elections seen as crucial for the country's effort
to tackle its economic problems, as well as for the eurozone.
Q&A: Italian election – BBC
Italians go
to the polls on 24-25 February to vote in an early general election, which
could determine whether Italy starts on its economic recovery, or
drags Europe back into crisis.
Europe waits for Italy elections – BBC
There was a
time when Italian elections were frequent and forgettable. Prime ministers were
discarded like last season's clothes.
Italian Notes Slide Before Election; Bunds Gain
on Haven Demand – BB
Italian
notes dropped for the fifth week in six weeks amid speculation parliamentary
elections will result in a hung parliament, derailing economic reforms in Europe’s biggest debt market.
Italians Vote With Berlusconi Challenging Monti
Austerity – BB
Italians
vote today for the first time since Europe’s financial crisis ushered in unelected
leaders who imposed an austerity regime to stem the turmoil. The first
estimates are due Monday shortly after 3 p.m. in Rome, when the second day of balloting
ends.
Italians vote in crucial election for euro zone – Reuters
Italians
began voting on Sunday in one of the most closely watched elections in years,
with markets nervous about whether it can produce a strong government to pull
Italy out of recession and help resolve the euro zone debt crisis.
Italian election: Is this the final curtain for
Silvio Berlusconi? –
The
Telegraph
Silvio
Berlusconi has set out to recapture some of his old populist magic on the
campaign trail. But as Harriet Alexander and Andrea Vogt write, the old showman
has lost his sparkle.
Italian Election Guide – WSJ
Italian
voters can cast ballots Sunday and until 0900 ET Monday, after which exit polls
will provide quick but approximate insight into the probable result of the
election.
25-FEB
Italy awaits opening of general election polls amid uncertainty – The
Guardian
Likelihood
of weak government and rise of populist former comedian add to apprehension as
Italian campaigning ceases
Europe waits for Italy – Macrobusiness
The
question is whether Italy will come out of the elections with
a government with the strength to appease the rest of Europe, yet wear the burden of the
political fall-out to defend those policies domestically, while somehow finding
economic growth. It is a huge ask, and even if the election outcome is one of
the less politically risky outcomes the threat of further instability cannot be
ruled out over 2013.
Protest votes raise uncertainty in close Italy election – Reuters
Polls in Italy opened for the second and final day
of voting on Monday, with a surge in protest votes increasing fears of an
unclear outcome that could hamper economic reforms.
Monti Braces for Popular Test of
Investor-Backed Austerity – BB
Mario
Monti, the university president appointed to run Italy at the height of Europe’s financial crisis 15 months ago,
gets his final grade from voters today. He already won a stamp of approval from
investors.
Italy election: 5 ways to prep for the result – The
World / FT
Italy votes in election seen as key for economic recovery – BBC
Polls have opened for a second and final day in Italy's general
election - a vote seen as crucial for efforts to tackle the country's economic
problems, as well as for the eurozone.
Italian Bond Yields
Erase Gain Before Initial Election Estimate – BB
Italy’s bonds
rose for a second day amid speculation the winner of the nation’s parliamentary
election will maintain austerity measures imposed to stem financial turmoil in
the euro area’s third-largest economy.
Bersani Headed for
Election Win Over Berlusconi, Poll Shows – BB
Pier Luigi Bersani, the ex-communist who campaigned to
maintain budget rigor, is on track to win Italy’s first
election since Europe’s financial crisis
broke out
Centre left takes
strong lead in Italy election: polls – Reuters
The centre left is strongly leading in Italy's
election, raising the chances of a stable pro-reform government in the euro
zone's third largest economy, according to two telephone polls published after
voting ended.
Market Kneejerk Reaction To Italian Exit Polls – ZH
Italy's election: disaster avoided, but there's trouble ahead – TradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: While the disaster of Berlusconi's
win was avoided, Bersani's government will probably fail in reform
implementation.
First impression: could
have come much worse – Nordea
Don't Count Bunga Out
Just Yet - Berlusconi Now Has Senate Lead Over Bersani – ZH
Stable Italy shocker hopes dashed! – alphaville
/ FT
Real Time Italian
Election Data and Projections; TV Projections Show Berlusconi Coalition Leading
in Italy Senate – Mish’s
Italy’s Election Gets Murky: Markets Reverse Course – WSJ
Mario Monti, Paul
Krugman and Italian austerity – The
World / FT
Early projections
point to Brussels’ and Berlin’s worst nightmare – Open
Europe
From Hung Parliament
To BTP Sell Off: JPM Says To
Expect A 40-100 Bps Rise In Italian Bond Yields – ZH
Italy election forecasts point to political gridlock – Reuters
Conflicting early forecasts of the result of Italy's
election on Monday raised the specter of deadlock in parliament that could
paralyze a new government and re-ignite the euro zone crisis.
Italy Projections Show Hung Parliament on Berlusconi – BB
Italy may
require another vote after partial election results suggested the four-way race
may end in a divided parliament, an aide to Democratic Party candidate Pier
Luigi Bersani said.
Italy markets take fright at complex election results – Reuters
Italian shares and bonds lost earlier gains after
election projections showed former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's
conservative bloc leading in the Senate, contradicting initial exit polls and
raising the specter of deadlock in parliament.
Huge protest vote pushes Italy towards deadlock – Reuters
A huge
protest vote by Italians enraged by economic hardship and political corruption
pushed the country towards deadlock after an election on Monday, with voting
projections showing no coalition strong enough to form a government.
Everything you need
to know about Italy's messed-up elections – Wonkblog
/ WP
Italy Senate "Ungovernable"; No Coalition Possible – Mish’s
Beppe Grillo's Five
Star Movement On Verge of Being Largest Political Party in Italy; Italy Stock
Market Futures Plunge 3.5% - Mish’s
Meet The Biggest
Winner From Today's Italian Elections – ZH
26-FEB
Italian elections
without a winner – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The election results show that Bersani has won the
lower house but no coalition will be able to form a majority in the senate. In
this unfortunate situation, the Italian president can install an interim government.
Election laws may then be revised and new elections will be held. The first
real test of investor confidence will come tomorrow when Italy auctions as
much as EUR6.5bn in five- and 10-year bonds.
Italian Senate
electoral rules – alphaville / FT
Firebrand comedian, Beppe Grillo, holding the balance
of power.
Forty-Somethings Pay Price of Austerity in Higher
Taxes, but Will Reap Lower Pension Benefits
Citi: "This Is
The First European Election In Which Voters Didn't Do The Right Thing" – ZH
Italian election
media reaction – An ungovernable ‘pig’s mess’ – The
World / FT
Hung parliament
potentially in play – MarketWatch
Hopes for a clear-cut outcome in Italy’s
parliamentary elections on Monday gave way to fears that a strong showing by
Silvio Berlusconi and his center-right allies could trigger a fresh round of
political instability.
Italian politics in
a dead end – any way out? – Nordea
The one thing that seems clear after the Italian
election is that nothing is clear at all and uncertainty will linger on. As
Bersani put it: Italy is in
"a very delicate situation."
Bond Market Balks at
Italian Election Results – WSJ
"Welcome back to the euro-zone crisis," said
Citigroup in a note to its clients early Tuesday, and it's easy to see why.
Italian post-election
misery – alphaville
/ FT
In terms of providing certainty, it’s hard to see how
the Italian election outcome could have been worse.
The Italian stock market fell and state borrowing
costs rose as investors took fright at political deadlock after a stunning
election that saw a protest party lead the poll and no group had a clear
majority in parliament.
Comic Grillo stuns Italy with astonishing election showing – Reuters
The outcome of Italy's
national election is still uncertain but what is already clear is that the
massive winner is Beppe Grillo, a shaggy haired comedian whose
anti-establishment 5-Star movement could well become the country's largest
party.
Italy’s
inconclusive election triggered renewed market convulsions over Europe’s debt
crisis as recession-scarred voters repudiated budget rigor and established
former comedian Beppe Grillo as a political force.
Berlusconi Calls for
Recount After Refusing to Concede Defeat – BB
Berlusconi and his allies trailed the Democratic
Party-led coalition of Pier Luigi Bersani by less than half a percentage point,
a margin of fewer than 150,000 votes, with more more than 1 million votes still
to be counted at 12:45 a.m.
Italian elections aftermath – The World / FT
Beppe Grillo's Five
Star Movement On Verge of Being Largest Political Party in Italy; Italy Stock
Market Futures Plunge 3.5% - Mish’s
Meet The Biggest
Winner From Today's Italian Elections – ZH
(audio) BizDaily:
Italian election – BBC
(mp3)
Italy's
election ends in what looks like deadlock. With no clear winner, the world's
financial markets have reacted with alarm. What will it mean for Italy's efforts
to escape from its worst recession in decades? And could this spur a new crisis
in the eurozone? The Italian job
- and who's going to do it.
The Italian Job – Marc to Market
There are
broad and narrow implications of the election.
Some will see the majority vote for the parties that want to leave EMU
as the beginning of the end, sparking a new phase of the financial crisis. Austerity has so weakened the social fabric
that it has eroded the political center.
A political crisis is more immune to ECB action and the OMT than a
private capital strike. However, it may
be jumping hastily to a conclusion that all who voted for the center-right and
Grillo did so to express a desire to leave EMU.
Italian Job – Macro Man
Is Italy
important? It's certainly a wake up call
rumble from the dormant Euro-volcano but we do think that Italy is going
to drag Euro back to 2012. If the interface of Euro contagion is based on Italy's
commitment to Europe combined with the
management of debt load via internal economic management or European support
then perhaps we should break it down.
Above the noise:
Classic overreaction to the Italian election – TradingFloor
There is absolutely nothing with the current
information on hand that bodes for uncertainty surrounding the Euro area, nor Italy's
economic life one year ahead.
Send In The Clowns
(European Elections Edition) – WSJ
As protest votes go, Bepe Grillo takes the cream pie. And
smashes it into the face of the political establishment
The euro-zone crisis has just entered what could be
its final and most dangerous phase -
Italy Has Voted to End Madness, Says Leading
Academic – WSJ
Investors should rejoice at Italy’s
election, because the powerful anti-austerity vote stands to put all of Europe on a more
growth-oriented path that is far better than the capital-destroying path it has
been on in recent years. That’s the view of Gustavo Piga, an economics
professor in Rome, and
author of a landmark study into the use of derivatives by sovereign
governments.
By bringing together the many Italians disillusioned
by old-style politics, former comedian Beppe Grillo has robbed the coalition of
the left, under Pieluigi Bersani, of what was looking like certain victory. Italy will now
have to reckon with a new player who is as indispensable as he is unpredictable
If You Ask The Right
Questions You Might Find The Right Answers – Mark
Grant / ZH
A referendum has just taken place in Italy. All of
the political upheaval in Italy was
caused by anger and frustration with the European Union and their policies.
This is what drove the election and not to appreciate this is a serious
mistake. The EU is now cornered.
Above the noise:
Classic overreaction to the Italian election – TradingFloor
There is absolutely nothing with the current
information on hand that bodes for uncertainty surrounding the Euro area, nor Italy's
economic life one year ahead.
Beppe Grillo’s
success in the Italian elections shows that austerity is now becoming
politically unsustainable – europp
/ LSE
Following the weekend’s elections, Italy now
appears to be facing a hung parliament, with a centre-left majority in the
Chamber of Deputies and a fragmented Senate. The real winner has been Beppe
Grillo’s 5 Star Movement, which gained 25 per cent of the vote. The movement’s
success illustrates that austerity is now becoming politically unsustainable
within the country.
The EU commission has urged any future government in Italy to stick
to deficit-cutting measures, despite the fact that over half of the electorate
voted for anti-austerity parties.
How will Mario Draghi
react to the Italian elections? – Wonkblog
/ WP
Last fall, the euro zone settled on a relatively
straightforward arrangement to quell its crisis. Individual nations would agree
to cut down their deficits through years of grinding austerity. In return, the ECB
would use its power to prevent a panic-inducing run on the bond markets. Now
that deal’s being threatened.
Roundup of European editorials
Italian Bond Yields
Bring Back Bad Memories – WSJ
Italy's
political stalemate has sent government bond yields spiking, in an episode
reminiscent of what transpired on a regular occurrence during the height of Europe's debt crisis
over the last few years.
They’ll be able to keep going for 7 or 8 months and
they’ll produce a disaster but we’ll try and keep them under control.
More than likely, this house of cards will collapse
within weeks and Italians will be asked to vote once more. Who can guess what
they will do then? Can the ECB and the Eurozone withstand this turbulence?
Italy shatters some comfortable eurozone assumptions – Gavyn
Davies / FT
The comfortable assumption, which until now has been
held by the policy elite in the eurozone, and mostly in the financial markets,
that in the end “sensible” democracies will always support conventional
economic policies has been shattered.
Beppe Grillo: five
classic one-liners – alphaville
/ FT
Three Failures and a
Success – WSJ
according to Bill Emmott, former editor of The
Economist.
27-FEB
Italy’s Election Results Might Yield Progress on Reform – PIIE
It is no surprise that the results of the Italian
political election have unsettled the markets and stirred fears outside the
country about the potentially damaging impact on Europe, the United
States, and the global
economy.
Italian Politics Put
the Universal Put to the Test – WSJ
The markets, battered by the uncertainty from the
Italian elections, may find themselves in need of the Fed's unwavering support.
Analysis: It's about
to get serious for Italy's triumphant comic Grillo – Reuters
Beppe Grillo can allow himself a few days to bask in
the afterglow of his triumph in Italy's
election, but soon the comedian who now leads the country's largest party will
face some tough political choices.
Italy faces
political deadlock after a stunning election that saw the anti-establishment
5-Star Movement of comic Beppe Grillo become the strongest party in the country
but left no group with a clear majority in parliament.
Italy's
fractious election results this week have raised investor suspicions that the
euro zone's protracted debt crisis has reached a critical juncture.
Italy will pay
the price for its latest political crisis with higher borrowing costs on
Wednesday when it sells longer-dated bonds to investors worried about an
inconclusive election.
World From Berlin: Italy's 'Childlike Refusal to Acknowledge Reality' – Spiegel
The Italian election, in which more than half of
voters backed two comedians in the form of Silvio Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo,
shows Italians are unable or unwilling to grasp the depth of their economic
plight, argue German media commentators. The ungovernable nation poses a major
risk to the euro zone.
Germans and Eurocrats
Throw Hissy Fits Over Italian Elections – naked
capitalism
Monti Was a Success
Among Italian Voters Abroad – WSJ
Beppe Grillo and Silvio Berlusconi may have been the
big winners in Italy’s
election, given that they outperformed expectations and prevented a clear
victory for the center-left coalition, which polls had indicated was on course
to victory. But Italians abroad had a different view.
Far from being a disaster, the results of the
Italian election could be a turning point for Italy and the Eurozone – europp
/ LSE
The results
of the Italian elections, in which the centre-left coalition won a majority in
the Chamber of Deputies, but not in the Senate, have led to fears that the
country could become ungovernable. Jonathan Hopkin takes issue with this
perspective, arguing that the results could have a number of positive
consequences for both Italy and the Eurozone. The failure of
Mario Monti to secure a sizeable vote share, and the success of Beppe Grillo’s
M5S movement, might spell the end for technocracy and austerity in Italy.
Bild ups the ante:
Will Italy's political clowns destroy the euro? – Open
Europe
Did a Bersani-Grillo
alliance just become a real possibility? – Open
Europe
Italy economic overview – graphic of the day – Thomson
Reuters
Italian elections – what’s next? – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Economic fact book: Italy – Danske
Bank (pdf)
In the
aftermath of Italy’s recently concluded election, no
one knows who can and will govern the country. In fact, the best solution looks
like an orderly one-year interregnum – marked by a couple of important reforms
– and then a new vote in the spring of 2014.
An Italian voter speaks out on the real reasons
Italians voted for Grillo – Credit
Writedowns
Her view
speaks more to families’ and small business’ rejection of corporatism and
corruption than austerity per se.
Italian auction offers respite for periphery
debt – Reuters
Italian
auction sees strong demand as yields rise * Post-election uncertainty seen
keeping pressure on Italy * German debt gains as markets
remain risk averse
Italy’s government bonds rose, pushing
10-year yields down from the highest level in three months, after demand
increased at the nation’s first debt auction since inconclusive election
results.
An Italian
political crisis that has rattled the euro zone deepened on Wednesday when two
party leaders ruled out the most likely options to form a government and avoid
a new election.
IN FINNISH
Italia vaaliuurnille, Lombardia ratkaisee tuloksen – KL
Italia vaaliuurnille, Lombardia ratkaisee tuloksen – KL
Ratkaisevaa Italian vaaleissa on, mikä ryhmä saa parlamentin
ylähuoneeseen eli senaattiin eniten edustajia vauraasta ja väkirikkaasta
Lombardiasta. Italialaiset äänestävät senaatista sunnuntaina ja maanantaina.
Italia äänestää
parlamentista – YLE
Vaalien voittajasuosikki on vasemmistojohtaja Pier-Luigi
Bersanin puolue. Kovimmat haastajat ovat oikeistojohtaja Silvio Berlusconi ja
Mario Monti, joka johtaa keskustakoalitiota.
Äänestys alkoi
Italian parlamenttivaaleissa – HS
Tausta: Kahden miehen
kamppailu – HS
Maailmanlopun tango
Berlusconin kanssa – irstaita vihjailuja ja mahdottomia talouslupauksia – MTV3
Vain Italiassa:
Mielipidemittauksia julkaistaan hevoskilpailutuloksina – MTV3
Italiassa kaikki säännöt on tehty kierrettäviksi. Myös
kielto, jonka mukaan mielipidemittauksia ei saa tehdä eikä julkaista kaksi
viikkoa ennen vaaleja.
Kysely: Berlusconi jäämässä toiseksi Italian
vaaleissa – YLE
Ovensuukyselyn
mukaan parlamenttivaalien voittajaksi nousee keskustavasemmistolainen koalitio.
Ennusteet: Berlusconin liittouma voittamassa
täpärän kisan Italian senaatista – YLE
Parlamentin
alahuoneen hallinta on vaaleissa menossa Pier Luigi Bersanin
keskustavasemmistolle. Jos ennuste toteutuu, Italian vaalit tuottavat
jakautuneen parlamentin.