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Wednesday, January 30

30th Jan - Special: US Q4 GDP


First the news and the initial reactions. Should you jump straight to more refined thought, hit the bottom of the post.



GDP contracts on tepid inventories, government spending dropsReuters
The economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, suffering its first decline since the recession ended more than three years ago as businesses scaled back on restocking and government spending plunged.

Economy in U.S. Contracts as Defense Spending SlumpsBB
The economy in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter, restrained by the biggest plunge in defense spending in four decades and dwindling inventory growth as household purchases picked up.

Real GDP decreased 0.1% Annualized in Q4 – Calculated Risk
U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Contracts – WSJ
Yikes! Economy shrank in fourth quarter for the first time since '09 – Wonkblog / WP
Shrinkage: US Economy Declined By -0.1% In Q4 – ZH
First Report of Q4 GDP Is Negative – The Daily Capitalist

Advance reading of US Q4 GDP: -0.1% annual rate – alphaville / FT
GDP Q4 Advance Estimate at -0.1%, A Shocking Slip into Contraction – dshort
GDP Takeaways: Isn’t as Bad as It Looks – WSJ
US GDP Poor, but Weakness Exaggerated – Marc to Market
Okay if it does not happen again – Juhani Huopainen / TradingFloor

Comments on Q4 GDP and Investment – Calculated Risk
Why defense spending plunged 22% last quarter and killed GDPWonkblog / WP
US Contraction Sends Europe Lower, US Higher – ZH
Q4 GDP Delivers A Big Downside Surprise – The Capital Spectator
Don’t worry: recession is not coming despite shocking GDP drop – Nordea

Economists React: ‘Best Looking Contraction’ in GDPWSJ
Think the U.S. needs austerity? Look at this chart first. – Wonkblog / WP
The only chart you need on the GDP report – Wonkblog / WP
Stumble or worse? – Free exchange / The Economist

Some Anomalies in the Q4 Advance Estimate Negative Print – dshort 

Fiscal Cliff Didn’t Hold Back Business Spending – WSJ
GDP Is Better Than Headline, but Still Not Good – WSJ
Falling Government Spending and Inventories Push Growth Negative in Quarter – CEPR

Will the 'Real' GDP Please Stand Up? (The Deflator Makes Big a Difference) – dshort
Why Did Economists Get GDP Wrong? – WSJ

US GDP Shrinks in Q4. How to Interpret the Bad News? – EconoMonitor
Real GDP Per Capita: Another Perspective on the Economy – dshort
GDP falling again – Econbrowser