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Monday, January 28

28th Jan - US Open: Bad Eurolending



Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Currency Wars Heating UpZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Some Bears Refuse to Hibernate – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Contours of the FX Markets in the Week Ahead – Marc to Market
The T-Report: Thou Shalt Take Risk – TF Market Advisors


EUROPE
Irish setbackMacroScope / Reuters
good European roundup – ML

EU institutions mark out 'red lines' ahead of budget summiteuobserver
EU politicians are squaring up for a showdown on the bloc's seven year budget ahead of next week's summit.

  ECB & CURRENCY WAR
Will Europe pay for Japan?Bruegel
As the Bank of Japan is rolling out its new programme of quantitative easing, a significant debate about the impact on Europe is emerging. Is Japan engaging in a “beggar-thy-neighbour” policy? Is Europe paying the price as other central banks are responding?

The ECB will come under pressure in the currency warsThe A-list / FT
Mohamed El-Erian: Having solved its urgent problem, the eurozone needs to deal with a new dilemma: that of an appreciating currency. There is a growing number of countries seeking to weaken their own currencies. Indeed, in the last six months, the euro has appreciated by 11 per cent against the US dollar and by 8 per cent in nominal trade weighted terms. It has appreciated by a lot more against the Japanese yen.

Euro Rise Will Be a Problem for Euro Zone SoonWSJ

ECB Says Private Lending Contracted for Eighth Month in DecemberBB
Euro zone lending falls for 8th month – Reuters
Loans to companies and households in the euro zone contracted for the eighth month running in December, showing low official borrowing costs are having little success in reviving investment and spending.

  UK
David Cameron has one great ally: the people of EuropeThe Telegraph
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Cherry-picking. Europe a la carte. And from Madrid, a finger-waving admonition that "David Cameron must understand he cannot pretend to renegotiate the treaties, and undo what we have done, or slow the speed of the EU cruiser."

It would be difficult for the UK to follow the ‘Swiss’ or ‘Norwegian’ models as an alternative to EU membershipeuropp / LSE
Jóhanna Jónsdóttir assesses whether the UK could follow the example of countries like Norway and Switzerland in using the European Free Trade Association as an alternative to EU membership. She notes that while this would allow the UK to continue to participate in the single market, there are significant potential problems associated with the approach.

German lawmakers give Britain's Cameron qualified backing on EUReuters
Britain is right to demand greater openness in the European Union but cannot expect to be accorded special rights that might unravel the bloc, senior members of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition were quoted on Sunday as saying.

Carney’s words signal step change at BankThe Telegraph
One duty of the journalist at Davos is to judge the mood, in the hope that this provides intelligence on the year ahead.

The Single Market is just one ingredient to be put into the potThe Telegraph
"It is vital that we remain in the Single Market”, politicians of all hues regularly intone, like a mantra.

  PIIGS
Germany and ECB clash over Cypruseuobserver
The ECB is at odds with Germany's finance minister over the consequences of not bailing out Cyprus and its wider implications for the eurozone.

How to Track Italy’s Election RacePIMCO
While it is almost certain that a centre-left coalition, led by the head of the Democratic Party (PD) Pier Luigi Bersani, will command an absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies, the race is much closer in the Senate…The most likely outcome is a post-election alliance between the centre-left and the Mario Monti coalition. Such an alliance would be positive for policy continuity and political stability.

UNITED STATES
Extraordinary Actions will keep the US government running at least through mid JulySober Look

LBO leverage creeping up, credit not reaching smaller firmsSober Look

At Fed, Nascent Debate on When to Slow Asset BuyingNYT

OTHER
Morning Briefing (EU/US)BNY Mellon
“Just When You Thought It Was Safe To Go Back In The Water”: Recent comments from Olli Rehn act as a timely reminder of the risks that remain in the Euro-zone.

The Next Normal? Is Crisis Fatigue Causing Wishful Thinking about the Markets?CFA Institute
For various reasons, my optimism doesn’t match the breathless enthusiasm that seems to be building in the financial media.

Global Stock Correlations Plunge as Morgan Stanley BuysBB

Is the whole world bullish?Humble Student
At this point, my base case calls for stocks to correct 5-10%, at which the uptrend continues. However, that scenario is subject to change as circumstances change. We may be nearing an inflection point and will have to take this one day at a time.



Summary Of Key Events In The Coming WeekGS / ZH


IN FINNISH
Maahanmuutto ja työvoimapula – Hesari kirjoittaa melkoista höpöä aiheen tiimoiltatyhmyri

Urpilainen huolissaan nuorisotyöttömyydestä – syytä onkintyhmyri

Kriisitietoa komissaareille ja muille haaveilijoilleJan Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjillä ei ole toivoa taltuttaa kriisiä niin kauan kuin he sulkevat silmänsä kriisin syiltä. Näin tekee esimerkiksi EU:n korkea-arvoisin viranhaltija, komission puheenjohtaja José Manuel Barroso. Hän väittää yhä, että Kreikka ja muut kriisimaat kärsivät Yhdysvaltain vastuuttoman finanssialan ylilyönneistä eivätkä suinkaan Euroopan omista virheistä.