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Thursday, January 24

24th Jan - US Close: Good PMI, LTRO repayment



Both Davos- and Cameron-specials have been updated.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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US CLOSE
Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Roundup – Kiron Sarkar / The Big Picture 
Tomorrow’s Tape: New Home Sales, P&G Earnings – WSJ
Morning Briefing (Asia): – BNY Mellon 
US: Blow-Off Top? Or Just Another Run-Stop? AAPL 12% Drop! – ZH

EUROPE
New IMF Outlook: No Love for EuropeMacro and Markets

IMF chief: 2013 is make-or-break year for eurozoneeuobserver
IMF chief Lagarde has said eurozone leaders should "keep the momentum" of reforms like the banking union, with recession to linger in 2013.

The world can stop panicking – for the momentThe World / FT
Martin Wolf: The financial panics are over. Now we must deal with the longer-term aftermath. I advanced this thesis at a private dinner last night and, to my surprise, Nouriel Roubini agreed with me. More precisely, he agreed that “tail risk” had been sharply reduced. The big change of the last 12 months has, of course, been in the eurozone.


Spanish joblessness climbs again, no relief in sightReuters
Spain's unemployment rate soared to its highest level since measurements began in the 1970s as a prolonged recession and deep spending cuts left almost 6 million people out of work at the end of last year.
 
Macro Strategy – Watch IFONordea (pdf)
The trough in German macro is evident (see Global Alpha’s Roadshow), and as such there is little surprise that IFO will fall in line with this. If anything we see a more solid trough in various core countries, e.g. despite the lackluster French PMI the macro model for French GDP (based on various hard data) has continued to trough.

  MARKIT PMI
Eurozone downturn eases as PMI hits ten-month highMarkit (pdf)
The Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index rose for the third consecutive month in January according to the flash estimate, up to a ten-month high of 48.2 from 47.2 in December, and up sharply from October’s post-crisis low of 45.7.

Recession-hit euro zone has turned a cornerReuters
The euro zone economy took a step closer to recovery this month as the rate of decline in the bloc's private sector eased more than expected, a business survey showed on Thursday.

Euro area PMIs show a divided EuropeDanske Bank (pdf)

  LTRO
Ten Things You Should Know about the LTROMarc to Market

The ECB’s 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supplyAlea

Payback of ECB Lending to Mark New Step Back to NormalWSJ


EURUSD Is Vulnerable Ahead Of 'LTRO Friday'ZH

Note from Citi.
 
OTHER
Morning Briefing (EU/US): All We Are Saying ... revisitedBNY Mellon
Further thoughts on the ECB's role in "currency wars"

Global Alpha Weekly Nordea (pdf)
FX: Safe-havens out of fashion * Fixed Income: Steeper yield curves a major them in 2013 * LTRO and the early repayment option