Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Mostly
gloomy news today. The PMI services index is expected to show signs of a
slowing services sector in the UK. The Eurozone Sentix index is
likely to fall, while analysts estimate the US ISM non-manufacturing index will
also decline.
The USD
remained broadly higher following the strong US jobs report on Friday.Today's data
was Australia-focused generally beat market expectations and mildly favoured
the AUD. Interest rate markets are pricing
in just below 50% chance of a cut tom.
European
markets are expected to open in the red Monday amid ongoing uncertainty over
the Greek bailout. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious ahead of the US Presidential election tomorrow.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Key news: Strong
non-farm payrolls boost USD but caution due to election in the US and leadership change in China weigh on equities. Mixed signals
from Chinese services: NBS PMI rose whereas HSBC fell in October. Focus today
on services PMIs out of Sweden, UK, and US and on the US election. Market movers today: G20
meeting in Mexico, SEK Services PMI, GBP: Services PMI, USD: ISM non-manufacturing
Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)
Politiikka ja keskuspankit alkavan viikon valokeilassa * Työllisyyskasvu
vankistui USA:ssa * Öljyn hinta alimmilleen kolmeen kuukauteen
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkinat yllättävän voimakkaaseen laskuun USA:ssa perjantaina, vaikka USA:n työllisyyslukemat selvästi odotuksia vahvemmat. Osakefutuurit nyt miinuksella, indikoiden laskuavausta. Makrorintamalla vallanvaihdoksia: USA:ssa huomenna presidentin vaalit ja torstaina Kiinassa alkaa puoluekokous, jossa päätetään maan uudesta johdosta. 3Q12 -osavuositulosten ”välitilinpäätös”: 82% OMX HEX 3Q12 -tuloksista takana ja edelleen odotusten mukaisesti mennään. Kertaluontoisista kuluista puhdistettu voitto saattaa olla jopa hieman odotuksia parempi.
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Bide your time – BNY Mellon
Despite its attractions, the NZD could be due a period of retrenchment
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat
EUROPE
I was
looking for some sort of quantitative evidence of the involvement of the Obama
administration in European discussion and thought the frequency of these
contact would provide an informative metric
Don't cry for me, François – The
Telegraph
French
leader François Hollande is uncomfortably close to a collapse in credibility.
His poll rating has sunk to 36pc. The speed of decline has been shocking.
Why Self-Sufficiency Matters (Or Why Europe's Growth Outlook Is Not Good!) – ZH
Bridgewater’s note.
Angela Merkel: eurozone crisis will last at
least another five years – The
Telegraph
The
eurozone will take at least another five years to recover from the crippling
debt crisis that has hampered even Europe's most powerful economy, according to German
Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Japan’s banking system problems in the
1990s stemmed from bad loans…The second parallel is fiscal policy.
in a single
currency area, real exchange rate misalignments can only be eliminated by
relative adjustments to unit labour costs, but if you assume unchanged
productivity growth, the brunt of the adjustment will have to take place
through wages and inflation.
Euro Area’s Resolve to Secure Single Currency Faces Greek Test – BB
Euro Area’s Resolve to Secure Single Currency Faces Greek Test – BB
European
leaders’ resolve to keep Greece in the euro area will be tested this week as
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras struggles to secure political support for
measures to assure the country’s bailout lifeline.
Complete European Sovereign Event Calendar Until 2013 – ZH
Complete European Sovereign Event Calendar Until 2013 – ZH
ECB
ECB says checking status of loans made to
Spanish banks – Reuters
ECB is checking
whether it may have contravened its own strict rules by lending to Spanish
banks on overly generous terms, an ECB spokeswoman said on Sunday.
ECB investigating if loans made to Spanish
banks contravened rules – The
Telegraph
ECB
officials are investigating claims that they have blundered and advanced money
to Spanish banks on generous rather than penal terms.
Spanish Banks May Face €17 Billion Margin Call
As ECB Found To Lie About Collateral Haircuts – ZH
So, the ECB
defends its decision for Spain on the back of a lone rating agency DBRS holding
an A-Low rating (which itself says is not representative) and also is in direct
opposition to the treatment of Ireland (which is collateralized as a 'B' rated
credit while also maintaining an 'A-Low' rating with DBRS!).
Is This Why Markets Can't Catch A Bernanke Bid? – ZH
Goldman
Sachs: Qualitative comments in October reflect more pessimism than those from
September. In particular, companies across sectors noted weaker than expected
earnings and/or lowered guidance amidst the disappointing Q3 earnings season.
The European crisis and the upcoming US "fiscal cliff" resurfaced
as the two key risks weighing on business outlook and the broad economy.
Going over the fiscal cliff – Econbrowser
For the
economy, it really doesn’t matter whether Obama or Romney wins. What matters is
the outcome of the congressional election and whether the two parties will work
together in the new Congress.
ASIA
The forces
of reaction and economic folly threaten to prevail in China. The long political arm of Jiang
Zemin has reached out from the shadows to thwart reform, with huge implications
for Asia and the world.
OTHER
FX Comment: fiscal
cliff or monetary cliff? – Nordea
IN FINNISH
Venäjän hakkeri
kärähti: Georgia kuvasi kasvot webkameralla ja julkaisi kuvan – TiVi
Julkisten palveluiden
yksityistämisestä – usein monopolista toiseen – tyhmyri