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Friday, November 16

16th Nov - EU Open



See my last night's long post for plenty of high-quality reads. For additional commentary, check my new morning piece. Tension in Middle East, US budget talks, China's new leadership. EURUSD trying to drop after rejecting 1.28 level. No convincing moves in equity indices as of yet - potential double bottom developing in SPX, but too early to say. Europe looks just as doomed as for the past couple of years. Same old, same old.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Reference
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros


MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: US Industrial Prod & TIC, EZ Current AcctSaxo Bank
The headline figure for Eurozone current account will probably not surprise by much, but the geographical breakdown might provide some interesting tidbits. Meanwhile, price response to the US Industrial Production will be key for the week ahead.

Asia Today: USDSGD at 1-month high on weak final Q3 GDP dataSaxo Bank
Asia held currencies at, or near, NY closing levels in a quiet Friday session.Data releases focused on Singapore – one “good” and one bad. On the positive side, external trade picked up in Oct.On the negative side, Q3 GDP was revised heavily lower

Market Preview: US Budget talks begin today; EU trade data on tapSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open lower Friday, ahead of budget deficit reduction talks in the US. Investors will be keeping an eye on Eurozone trade data as well as US industrial production figures for further cues on market sentiment.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Risk appetite retreated yesterday on the back of soft economic data, the US political gridlock, disappointing earnings forecasts and tension in the Middle East. Today is relatively quiet in terms of potential market movers.

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Euroalue odotettua kevyemmässä taantumassa * Suomi: Ei teknistä taantumaa * EUR/USD jatkoi nousuaan kahden kuukauden pohjistaan

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkinan laskettelu jatkui, kun makrodata USA:sta oli pehmeää. Euroalue odotetusti jälleen taantumaan. IMF luovuttamassa Kreikan talouden suhteen, 20.11. Euroryhmä päättää Kreikasta. Osakefutuurit nollassa, indikoiden flättiä avausta. Oikea osake oikeaan aikaan – mallisalkkupisteytys sekä tekninen näkökulma yhdistettynä: Nyt mielenkiintoisia ostoja olisivat: F-Secure, Nordea, YIT, Elisa ja Nokian Renkaat. Nyt hyvä hetki myydä: Nokia, HKScan.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): "Have yourself a merry little Christmas"BNY Mellon
Risk aversion looks like a growing theme into year end

MarkkinakalenteriNordnet
MarkkinakalenteriTaloussanomat


EUROPE
The Curse Of The “Irreversible” EuroTestosterone Pit
This is playing out across the Eurozone. In their effort to keep the Eurozone intact, politicians, elected or not, are beginning to sacrifice the fabric of the European Union, the colorful family of 27 nations that used to wage war on each other. The euro is creating artificial problems between peoples. And by being “irreversible,” as ECB President Mario Draghi had said, it has become a curse—and a religious dictum that must not be questioned regardless of how much havoc it may ultimately wreak.

UNITED STATES
Lighthouse Macro Report Nov 2012Lighthouse IM (pdf)

Watching for the bounceHumble Student
While the bears appear to be in control of the tape right now, I would reiterate my caution to get short at current levels. If you want to get bearish, at least wait for the rally to enter your position.

Key Points From the Q3 Earnings SeasonPragCap

ASIA
  IMF: AUSTRALIA
2012 Article IV Consultation – IMF
Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes – IMF
Financial System Stability Assessment – IMF

  CHINA
Chinese perma-growth at risk as Leninists tighten Politburo gripThe Telegraph
This is beginning to look like a shocker for the world economy, with big implications for global growth, trade, oil and commodity demand, investment flows, etc. Two key reformers were shut out of the seven-man Standing Committee

China’s New Leadership: UnveiledThe Diplomat

Leadership transition looks like a conservative victoryDanske Bank (pdf)

Meet The New China - Same As The Old China?ZH

Charting China’s Economy: 10 Years Under HuWSJ

FT podcast: China’s new leadershipThe World / FT
China has just completed its carefully-scripted, once-in-a-decade leadership transition. The Politburo was cut from nine to seven members and incoming general secretary and president Xi Jinping will also become head of the military. With these remaining uncertainties settled, Jamil Anderlini, Beijing bureau chief; James Blitz, diplomatic editor, and David Pilling, Asia editor, join John Aglionby to discuss how the new leadership will cope with an increasingly demanding population and whether the world will engage with Beijing any differently

OTHER
Thoughts about the Euro and Yen Price ActionMarc to Market

FX Forecast Update – NovemberDanske Bank (pdf)
Weaker dollar, yen and sterling in 2013, but mind the cliff

Yield Forecast UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
Event risks continue to dominate sentiment

EMEA Weekly: Week 47Danske Bank (pdf)

Like it or not, Beijing and Berlin must payThe Telegraph
If the world is to return to growth, countries with a surplus need to bear a bigger burden

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