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What do people who are not good enough to become sell-side analysts do? That's right - they work for IMF, ECB and EU Commission. See the pic.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
Roundup – A
View From My Screens
Roundup – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
Tomorrow’s Tape: Jobless Claims, Retail Earnings – WSJ
Europe: Late-Day Equity Ramp But European Bonds Ain't Buying It – ZH
Europe: Late-Day Equity Ramp But European Bonds Ain't Buying It – ZH
Reference
Debt crisis:
live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
EUROPE
One
interpretation of this disagreement is that it signals the IMF is beginning to
accept that the Troika’s previous strategy of ‘squeeze and hope’ has not
worked, but European governments and institutions are still refusing to
recognise that reality.
Goodbye euro, hello recession – Die
Zeit / presseurop
What would
happen if Germany left the euro? Economist Gustav
Horn of the Hans-Böckler Foundation, which has close ties to trade unions,
speculates on what would happen in the days following a German exit from the
euro – and on what Germany's most popular euro-critic, Thilo
Sarrazin, might also say.
Greece enjoys one formidable advantage
over Spain: Its economy is running well below capacity,
while the Spanish economy, despite an unemployment rate around 25%, is
operating relatively close to full steam.
UNITED STATES
Merry Christmas and a recessionary new year – alphaville
/ FT
SocGen,
Nomura and Oxford Economics are pessimistic: In mid-2008, despite positive
economic surprises, the economy had actually entered recession six months
earlier and profits were already declining sharply. Yet, in mid-2008 virtually
no economist accepted that the US economy had already entered
recession! That is exactly what I believe is happening today.
As Good As It Gets – ZH
SocGen's
Albert Edwards: despite the upside economic surprises, profits have been
spiralling downwards.
FOMC
Minutes
Fed Says
‘a Number’ on FOMC Saw Need for Additional QE – BB
(more) talk
about qualitative thresholds – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Members
Expect More Monetization After Twist Ends, As Expected – ZH
QE4 soon to
come – The Big
Picture
"Participants
generally favored" Thresholds – Calculated
Risk
More QE
Isn’t a Done Deal; Stocks Tumble – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
Lots of
talk, no action, on new strategy – Wonkblog
/ WP
Participants
concerned QE thresholds could confure public – alphaville
/ FT
FED
The end of one big stagnation – Free
exchange / The Economist
In other
words, those itching for a more expansionary monetary policy may have taken
heart at Barack Obama's re-election, since he is widely expected to name the
relatively dovish Ms Yellen to the chairmanship after Mr Bernanke departs.
Yellen’s quiet revolution at the Fed – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Retail
Sales
Decrease
for First Time in 4 Months – BB
Declined
0.3% in October – Calculated
Risk
Retail
sales and PPI – The Big
Picture
ASIA
The decline of Japanese companies illustrated
by the CDS market –
Macronomics
Xi Jinping’s Economic Challenge – The
Diplomat
OTHER
EU, US economic surprise
indices diverge – Sober
Look
Daily Quickie – HistorySquared
Chart of Financial Repression and Real Interest Rates;
Money Market Exposure; Bubble Morphs in Form, Still Growing
The Misdirection of Currency Wars – Marc
to Market
Currency
wars then, in either expression, seem to be more in the realm of rhetoric than
politics. There has been a long and sustained push from the developed countries
to get emerging markets to embrace more flexible currency regimes. The adoption
of unorthodox monetary policy by the U.S., Europe and Japan may, on the margins, increase such
pressure but few have capitulated.