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Monday, November 12

12th Nov - US Close: Greece and American oil

Plenty of stuff, for a US holiday. Japan started the week with even worse than expected GDP numbers. This was followed by an utterly useless Eurogroup meeting, where Greece was discussed. The early version of the Troika's report was leaked and is available and commented on FT's alphaville blog, links below.


International Energy Agency came out with a report and projected that US will overtake Saudi Arabia in terms of oil production by 2020. That's some heavy news and has a lot of implications financially and strategically.

Reformed Broker came out with a nice idea that 2013 will be a play between fiscal issues and housing. If the housing markets take off, the economy could be saved, but also the budget cuts and tax hikes could take the economy down. It could be a question which one 'shoots first'

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups and Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: Business Optimism, Home Depot Earnings – WSJ
Europe: Greek Banks Slump, Spanish Bonds Dump, Juncker 'Fist Pump' – ZH
US: A Whole Lotta Something Going On – ZH
 
Reference
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

EUROPE
Slow but steady? External adjustment within the Eurozone starts workingvoxeu.org
Why aren’t Eurozone imbalances adjusting? This column argues that there is heartening evidence that they are. Labour markets are beginning to be reformed across Europe, thereby increasing countries’ competitiveness. However, the road ahead will surely long and hard; for external adjustment to really work, it is crucial that financial markets start to take a lead supportive role.

ECB Should Open Its Chamber of SecretsView / BB

  EUROGROUP MEETING
Comments from euro zone finance ministers and officialsReuters
Euro zone finance ministers and officials met in Brussels on Monday to discuss the situation in Greece.

Two more years for Greece to cost 33 billion euros: troikaReuters
Greece will get two more years to reach previously agreed budget goals but the extra will cost the euro zone an additional 32.6 billion euros, draft documents prepared for a meeting of euro zone finance ministers showed on Monday.

Merkel wants to 'bring hope' to Portugaleuobserver

Leaked Greek troika report: devil in the detailsBrussels blog / FT
Greece will need as much as €32.6bn in new financing if the programme is extended through 2016…direct link to the troika draft (pdf)

  FRANCE
The Socialist Dilemma of François Hollande: To Be Schröder or Zapatero?PIIE
Despite his cultivated image of “Mr. Normal,” President François Hollande of France remains an enigma on the European policy scene. What kind of socialist president will he be in the next five years?

The sick man of Europe is FranceLes Echos / presseurop
The German government is increasingly concerned as well as outspoken about France's economic situation and its inability to act. Authorities in Paris are aware of the slump in industry but nonetheless irritated by the German pressure.

UNITED STATES
  HOUSING
Is a Recession Impossible With Rising Home Prices? – PragCap
Merrill Lynch Revises up 2012 House Price Forecast to 5% increase – Calculated Risk

  FISCAL CLIFF
The Case Against a “Grand Bargain” – The New Yorker
The Absolute Moron’s Guide to the Fiscal Cliff – New York Mag
Fiscal cliff could help U.S. avoid road to Japan – but probably won’t – MacroScope / Reuters
A few more thoughts on Fiscal Agreement – Calculated Risk
Moody’s Analytics Expects Fiscal Cliff Deal – WSJ
“Fiscal cliff” was smart branding until it was stupid; and other stuff – alphaville / FT

OTHER
  IEA REPORT
U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020 – BB
U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says – NYT
Markets Hub: U.S. Flipping the Script on Oil Business – MarketBeat / WSJ
US to become the biggest oil producer, says IEA – ASA
End of a Crude Alliance Between U.S. and the
Middle East? – The Source / WSJ
Don’t Expect Lower Oil Prices Even as U.S. Output Surges – WSJ
EM energy: nuggets from the IEA – beyondbrics / FT

Daily QuickieHistorySquared
Commodity Price Cycles; Greenspan’s Bubble Talk; Rising Debt in Asia -

Global business confidence lowest since 2009Sober Look

SocGen: Assessing the Two Biggest Market RisksPragCap
US fiscal cliff and prevailing uncertainty, growing inequalities in China

IN FINNISH
Saako ministeri siirtyä etujärjestöön?IS

Tarinat, joita ei uskalleta kuunnellaHS

Suomen pelastusohjelma pitää käynnistää nytHS

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