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Monday, November 12

12th Nov - US "Open"

US markets open, though banks are closed for the Veteran's Day. Eurogroup meeting will be deemed a success, if they can kick the can over the next Friday's t-bill expiration. That's how great things are at the moment.


Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Asian Bad News Launches Overnight Melt Up – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Juncker: Troika report on Greece is ‘broadly positive’; Greek parliament adopts 2013 budget amid protests

Morning MarketBeat: Asking the Right Question – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
A Few Observations to Start the New Week – Marc to Market 
The T Report: A Time to Think & 5 Key Issues – TF Market Advisors

 
US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Reference
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros


EUROPE
Reding: Governments should have no veto on taxationeuobserver
"The veto right in the EU council has to be scrapped. Qualified majority voting should be extended to more policy areas, for instance taxation"…Reding's federalist beliefs and her combativeness may ultimately see her passed over for someone less controversial. "Member states would rather see someone who plays ball," one EU source told this website.

Cyprus bailout only next year, Germany sayseuobserver
Links with Russia and other "questions" regarding the Cypriot financial sector are likely to delay a bailout decision until 2013, the German finance minister has said.

Spain is experiencing a period of intense social crisis europp / LSE
The crisis has now progressed into a frontal attack against the Spanish welfare state: already the smallest (in terms of spending as a percentage of GDP) among the EU-15 countries. The underfunded and under-resourced nature of Spain’s welfare state is leading to an acute social crisis within the country, disproportionately affecting poorer citizens. 

  ECB
Mario's latest move: Europa to the rescue Free exchange / The Economist
New staff projections by the ECB in December seem sure to present a gloomier picture, too, which would give the governing council an opportunity to cut its main policy rate to 0.5%

Discouraging newsFree exchange / The Economist
Given what we know has happened so far in Europe as a result of self-defeating austerity and myopic deficit targets, this seems like madness. If the Bundesbank successfully holds the ECB hostage and demands further fiscal bleeding as the price of additional monetary stimulus, the markets will realize that Mr Draghi is not in fact armed with a big bazooka—just a pea-shooter.

  GREECE
Reader’s guide to Greece: Eurogroup editionBrussels blog / FT
Which is all to say, after tonight’s meeting, we may be closer to clearing Friday’s t-bill hurdle. But probably not much closer to a final overhaul of Greece’s bailout.

Greece, the skidsFree exchange / The Economist
It gets harder and harder to imagine how things could be worse for Greece by leaving than by staying.

Greece's debt burden: Getting real Free exchange / The Economist
Our correspondents argue that only official debt restructuring can give Greece hope of escaping its financial crisis

UNITED STATES
The US Fiscal Cliff: Gauging the Observer EffectCFA Institute

ASIA
Corporate Bankruptcies Soar in Australia; Just a Start of What's ComingMish’s

China Monetary Statistics for October 2012ASA
Money supply grows at a slower rate, new loans disappoint, and deposit drops.

OTHER
Choppy markets aheadHumble Student
I believe that all these cross-currents are just a recipe for more volatility. While I am concerned about downside risks, investors also have to be aware of what could go right.

New Financial Forecasts: Markets have taken another turn at risk-offNordea (pdf)
or read the summary
.
Weekly Market CommentHussman Funds
Stocks certainly appear short-term oversold here, but the historical record doesn’t give much support to the idea of trading stocks for positive short-term mean-reversion in the face of such decidedly negative return/risk estimates. Then again, the “predictable” component of short-term market movements is small relative to the variation, so these comments shouldn’t be taken as a prediction of near-term outcomes, other than to emphasize what I see as unusual danger more broadly.

Morning Briefing – MondayNordea (pdf)
or read the summary

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