MoreLiver's Daily: 21st Sep - US Open: Spain next week?

The troika of international lenders is reportedly considering writing off Greece's first bailout, which would mean a second haircut for the highly indebted nation.

The pain in Spain … spreads to Italy – MacroScope / Reuters

This morning, we exclusively report that Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy could be about to break another promise by freezing pensions and bringing forward a planned rise in the retirement age…Monti’s labour and deregulatory reforms have done precious little to raise Italy’s trend rate of growth, which has been the lowest in Europe for a decade. Without improvement there, it is unlikely Rome can make any inroads into the national debt pile. To prove that point, the government revised up its deficit forecast for this year to 2.6 percent of GDP, from 1.7.

Spain: a tale of two crises – bruegel

Some pleasant monetarist arithmetic – A Fistful of Euros

What’s happening now is not a switch back from fiscal dominance to monetary dominance. It’s a kinder, gentler monetary dominance where the discipline comes not from a binge and purge fiscal cycle, but more active support to keep the would-be fiscal dominators from finding out the hard way what happens at the end of the alternative path.

USA

Getting Lonely to be a Hawk – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

The ranks of Fed hawks grow even thinner, down to just four clear hawks (plus or minus Bullard) out of nineteen policymakers. Barring an "sustainable and substantial" shift in the tone of the data, expect this Fed to keep their foot on the pedal for the foreseeable future.

MOST: “The reflation trade may not have long legs” – alphaville / FT

For all the talk of heightened inflation expectations on the back of QE3, Morgan Stanley analysts remain unconvinced. The truth, according to them, is that central bank action is having less than its desired effect. In fact, inflation expectations have remained well behaved if not subdued.

ASIA

China's shifting demographics and their impact – Sober Look

China's changing demographics now pose risks to global economic output for the simple reason that the nation is currently responsible for about 40% of world's GDP growth.

OTHER

What Is The Resource Of Tomorrow, And Who Will Benefit From It? – ZH

Goldman: The last question is which countries have succeeded despite resource deficits? Japan and South Korea stand out here, which cements our argument that necessity, in this case driven by constraints, is the mother of innovation.

Reserve managers caught between a euro and a dollar place – alphaville / FT

Right now, that all spells renewed diversification from reserve managers forced to load up on dollars that will likely go down in value… so long as risk appetite stays up, that is. If it does and the euro doesn’t blow up, it probably means some euro gains tempered by the SNB in particular which will almost certainly be selling what it can.

Weekly Credit Update – Danske Bank (pdf)

Global Week Ahead – Nordea (pdf)

Spain will be in focus in the week ahead after an FT article today suggesting that the planed structural reforms announcement next week has been agreed upon with the Commission and hence could pave the way for an aid request. On Friday, four independent auditors release a new report on the Spanish banking sector, which will give rise to updated recapitalisation need estimates

Precious Metals Update - Part II – The Short Side of The Long

IN FINNISH

Miksi leikkauksia ei tehdä? – Henri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Sailas talouskriisistä: "Tämä koskee myös Suomea" – TalSa

Pages

Google Analytics

Friday, September 21

21st Sep - US Open: Spain next week?